Future Trajectories of Japan’s Foreign Relations (Panel Discussion)

On February 27, 2025, InterRegoinal for Strategic Analysis held a panel discussion titled "Tokyo Model: Future Trajectories of Japan’s Foreign Relations and Their Impact on Strategic Issues in the Middle East". The panel featured Professor Satoshi Ikeuchi, an expert in religion and global security at the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, at the University of Tokyo, as the keynote speaker. The discussion focused on changing dynamics in Japan’s foreign policy toward the Middle East and offered insights into Japan’s evolving approach to the region. The key takeaways of the discussion can be summarized as follows.

Domestic Challenges

Professor Ikeuchi indicated that Japan’s domestic and foreign policies have undergone recent significant shifts, as below:

1- Fragile Domestic Backing for Prime Minister Ishiba: Professor Ikeuchi began by examining the election of Shigeru Ishiba as Prime Minister on October 1, 2024, a development that reflects internal fragmentation within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), particularly between its conservative wing and more hardline right-wing figures. He emphasized that Ishiba’s leadership remains fragile, and that his rise to leadership, largely facilitated by outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has yet to garner widespread political or popular legitimacy. As a result, his administration remains in a state of political uncertainty, with the LDP bracing for potential setbacks in the upcoming Upper House elections.

Consequently, Ikeuchi noted that the government is reluctant to take bold foreign policy initiatives. In the absence of decisive political leadership, Japan’s foreign relations continue to be managed by bureaucratic institutions operating within longstanding frameworks. While this ensures a degree of policy continuity, it also curtails the possibility of ambitious new initiatives.

2- Ongoing Growth in Governmental Defense Spending: According to Ikeuchi, Japan’s increasing defense expenditures indicate a broader strategic reorientation, one that moves beyond the country’s historically "defensive military stance" toward the development of offensive capabilities. By the end of 2023, the Japanese government had announced plans to raise defense spending to 1.6% of GDP, accompanied by a loosening of restrictions on arms exports. This policy shift coincided with Japan’s rapid deployment of long-range cruise missiles, capable of reaching targets in China or North Korea.

Furthermore, the government approved the export of domestically manufactured weapons and components produced under foreign licenses to the licensing country representing a rollback of the 2014 export ban. Nevertheless, experts argue that, despite these increases, Japan’s military budget remains insufficient in the face of growing regional threats, particularly those posed by China and the escalating tensions surrounding Taiwan, which could present serious security risks in the coming years.

3- Unprecedented Rise in Inflation: Ikeuchi noted that Core inflation in Japan rose to 3.2% in January 2025, the most rapid rise in 19 months, highlighting mounting economic challenges. He warned that this inflationary trend is likely to have profound implications for the country’s monetary policy. Specifically, the Bank of Japan may be compelled to accelerate interest rate hikes beyond earlier forecasts. Such increases would inevitably raise borrowing costs for businesses, potentially constraining both corporate investment and consumer spending. He also pointed to rising bond yields as an indicator of market expectations for a tightening of monetary policy. These developments suggest that the central bank may soon be forced to shift more decisively away from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy.

4- Japan’s Pivot Toward Renewable Energy Investment: Ikeuchi explained that Japan, the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas, has set a target of raising the share of renewables to 50% of total energy consumption by 2040. Within the same timeframe, Plans are also underway to expand the role of nuclear energy within the national power mix. He pointed out that, according to official figures, Tokyo aims to sharply reduce its reliance on thermal power, particularly coal-fired plants with low efficiency, by reducing their share in the energy mix from 68.6% in 2024 to between 30% and 40% by 2040.

5- Japan’s Continued Support for Ukraine Amid Strained Relations with Russia: Professor Ikeuchi affirmed that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has taken a firm stance against Russia’s actions in Ukraine, advocating a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. He emphasized Japan’s cautious approach to the war, warning that making concessions to Russia could embolden China to pursue more aggressive moves toward Taiwan.

Within this context, Ikeuchi noted that the Japanese government has maintained its commitment to supporting Ukraine. Plans are underway to allocate to Kyiv an additional three billion dollars, sourced from frozen Russian assets. Furthermore, he highlighted the recent signing of a bilateral agreement between Japan and Ukraine that facilitates the exchange of classified security information. This development reflects a concerted effort to strengthen strategic cooperation in light of the protracted conflict.

6. Tokyo’s Commitment to Reinforcing Its Alliance with Washington: Ikeuchi argued that Japan’s alignment with the United States has evolved from a strategic option into a necessity following the outbreak of the Ukraine war. As American global influence appears to be in gradual decline and its role as a major interventionist power diminishes, Japan increasingly finds itself compelled to deepen its alliance with Washington. The importance of this dual relationship, is further reinforced by the United States’ strategic pivot away from Europe and the Middle East toward Asia, particularly in response to China’s rising influence. Against this backdrop, Ikeuchi underscored that Japan continues to rely heavily on the United States to enhance its national defense, which motivates further strengthening of these bilateral alliances.

Foreign Policy Dimensions

Professor Ikeuchi observed that Japan’s diplomatic outreach in the Middle East has undergone important developments, summarized as follows:

1- Deepening engagement with regional developments under Prime Minister Shinzo: Ikeuchi noted that Shinzo Abe’s extended tenure as prime minister, from 2012 to 2020, enabled a level of consistency in foreign policy seldom seen among his more short-lived predecessors. Abe actively pursued high-level diplomatic visits and worked to cultivate closer ties with regional leaders, including the President of Turkey and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.

Of particular significance, Ikeuchi emphasized Abe’s landmark 2019 visit to Iran amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington. Although his mediation efforts ultimately yielded no breakthrough, the visit demonstrated Japan’s aspiration to act as a diplomatic intermediary in regional disputes. According to Ikeuchi, Abe’s assassination in 2022 marked the close of a distinct era in which Japan assumed a more effective diplomatic role in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the foundations he laid have continued to shape the groundwork for a more proactive Japanese role in promoting regional stability

2- Diversification of Partnerships with the Gulf Nations: Ikeuchi further explained that Japan’s longstanding involvement in the Middle East has traditionally been rooted in its energy security needs, given its dependence on oil and gas imports. While energy cooperation remains a cornerstone of these relationships, Japan is now responding to global trends toward energy transition. In this context, Tokyo is working with the Gulf nations to promote decarbonization and zero emissions and support energy diversification projects.

Moreover, the scope of Japan’s engagement with the Gulf nations has expanded to include advanced technological collaboration and defense cooperation. These dimensions are now integral to Japan’s broader diplomatic and economic strategies, ensuring that its regional engagement extends beyond traditional energy issues.

3- Institutionalizing Partnerships with Gulf nations: Ikeuchi emphasized that since taking office in 2021, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has continued to deepen Japan’s economic engagement with the Gulf Arab states. He noted that Kishida’s administration has initiated negotiations for comprehensive economic partnership agreements with both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—an indication of Japan’s intent to formalize its economic relations through institutional frameworks. According to Ikeuchi, Japan’s diplomatic style is marked by its slow but methodical pace that contrasts with South Korea’s tendency to conclude agreements rapidly, and this process ensures that such accords generate tangible long-term outcomes.

4- Strategic Flexibility in a Multipolar Middle East: Ikeuchi explained that Japan has long pursued balanced and amicable relations with all major Middle Eastern actors, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan. This inclusive approach has historically supported Japan’s stable diplomatic and economic ties. However, with the geopolitical order increasingly evolving in the region - with the emergence of new regional alliances replacing the dominance of external great powers - Japan recognized the need to recalibrate its strategy. Rather than relying solely on bilateral diplomacy, Tokyo is seeking to develop a broader regional framework, one capable of adapting to the fluid dynamics of the contemporary Middle East.

Future Trajectories

Building on current developments, Ikeuchi projects that Japan’s policy toward the Middle East will undergo a significant transformation, characterized by the following dimensions:

1- Mediating for Stability and Rebuilding Gaza: Ikeuchi indicated that Japan might play a role in coordinating international efforts to rebuild Gaza, by working with Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon. Drawing on its strong bilateral relationships across the region, Japan is well-positioned to contribute to regional stability through multilateral cooperation and diplomatic mediation. Over time, Ikeuchi predicted, Japan is likely to take on a more proactive role in peacebuilding initiatives, leveraging its diplomatic influence to facilitate dialogue and reconciliation.

2- Advancing Japan’s Soft Power Footprint in the Middle East: According to Ikeuchi, over the past decade, Japan has become increasingly aware of the appeal of its soft power in the region, primarily through its culture and social values. He added that Japan enjoys broad acceptance as a reliable and trustworthy partner, distinguished by its institutional stability and consistency. These traits contrast with those of global powers frequently criticized for not honoring their commitments.

Notably, Ikeuchi stressed that Japan’s cultural influence in the Middle East does not stem from government policy but from the grassroots—through community engagement and independent initiatives. He noted a growing convergence between Japanese and Gulf societies, especially among younger generations, in lifestyle preferences and social values, despite significant religious and cultural differences.

3- Expanding Engagement in Maritime Security: Ikeuchi argued that Japan’s increased involvement in maritime security operations near the Strait of Hormuz reflects its broader effort to assume a more proactive role in global security, while still relying on the United States for strategic protection. Importantly, Ikeuchi clarified that Japan does not seek strategic autonomy through these operations but rather aims to share the burden of maintaining stability of vital maritime routes, especially those crucial for energy security and Japan’s economic interests, alongside the United States and its allies. Furthermore, Ikeuchi noted that by gradually increasing its contributions, Japan aims to support regional stability in the Middle East in a manner consistent with its collaborative diplomatic approach.

4- Advancing Technological and Scientific Collaboration with Gulf Nations: Professor Ikeuchi emphasized that while energy remains the cornerstone of Japan’s relationship with the Gulf nations, the sustainability of this connection increasingly depends on expanding cooperation in advanced technologies and scientific education. He noted a rising demand for such partnerships in countries like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, positioning science and technology as particularly fertile ground for future collaboration.

Within this context, Ikeuchi observed that both the Japanese government and private sector actors have expressed strong interest in contributing to this growing domain, though an organized framework for such partnerships remains absent. He pointed out that, unlike the more structured frameworks that currently govern scientific and technological cooperation between the Gulf nations and partners such as Europe or the United Kingdom, Japan has yet to establish a dedicated mechanism for fostering similar engagements with the Gulf nations.

In conclusion, Ikeuchi underscored that Japan appears poised to expand its global footprint in the face of accelerating geopolitical shifts both in the Middle East and the world. In addition to strengthening ties in sectors such as energy and technology, Japan seeks to amplify its cultural presence as part of a broader soft power strategy. At the same time, it is working to enhance its maritime security role and contribute more actively to the stability of the region. As emerging actors such as BRICS, Turkey, and India gain influence, Ikeuchi suggested that Japanese foreign policy is likely to evolve toward more active diplomacy and a deeper embrace of multilateralism.