Nawar Samad

On May 7, 2025, a French-made Rafale fighter jet belonging to the Indian Air Force had allegedly been downed during Operation Sindoor. Social media platforms were flooded with videos showing the wreckage of military aircraft within Indian territory near the Pakistani border. One of these videos displayed debris believed to be from an M88 engine, used in the Rafale, along with unexploded MICA missiles. Other videos showed wreckage from unidentified aircraft. Although India denied Pakistan's claims of shooting down five of its aircraft, including three Rafales, a French source confirmed that at least one Rafale had been lost. The incident sparked widespread debate over the credibility of the circulation of information and marked a turning point in the aerial conflict between the two nations. Concerns emerged about the effectiveness of Rafale jets against the fighter aircraft in possession of the Pakistani military.

What the Rafale Setback in India Means for the Future of French Arms

The Dassault Predicament:

On 1 November 2024, in conjunction with the 70th anniversary of the launch of the Algerian War, French President Emmanuel Macron took the bold step of admitting the responsibility of French soldiers for the assassination of Algerian activist Larbi Ben M’hidi. Macron’s acknowledgment is part of an attempt to reduce tensions between Algeria and France, following a deterioration in bilateral relations that culminated in France’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara on 30 July 2024. This recognition provoked outrage in Algiers and prompted it to re-evaluate its relationship with Paris. Despite the importance of this historic admission, the future of Algerian-French relations remains subject to several factors, including colonial memory, geostrategic interests in North Africa, and shared economic and security challenges.

Can Algerian-French Relations Overcome their Current Rifts?

Macron’s Admission:

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

Interregional for Strategic Analysis held a panel discussion session titled "Restoring Influence: The Future of French Policy Towards the Middle East," featuring Camille Lons, Deputy Head of the Paris Office and Middle East and North Africa Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). The session explored the key determinants and features of French foreign policy toward the Middle East, the main tools Paris employs in its relations with the region, and the significant challenges that hinder the effectiveness of French foreign policy.

The Future of French Policy Towards the Middle East (Panel Discussion)

Restoring Influence:

Chinese President Xi Jinping visited France as his first stop in Europe to mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. China and France seek to enhance their bilateral relations, especially given Beijing’s desire to strengthen its presence in the EU and win European support on the issue of Taiwan. Meanwhile, France hopes to cut back its overreliance on the US.

French Support for Macron’s Approach to Developing Ties with China (Infographic)

New Perspectives:

Dr. Mona Soliman‏‏

On 2 November 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron finished his first tour of Central Asia, through which he sought to strengthen French influence in the region. Macron visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and affirmed French interest in strengthening partnerships with both nations. He also assessed the countries’ stances on the Ukraine war given the special relationship both have with Russia. Macron’s tour puts France on the map of regional and international powers in the region, which has recently gained geopolitical momentum. There has been growing European interest in Central Asia amidst heightened competition between Russia, China, and Turkey to expand their influence and implement regional transport corridors to connect the landlocked region to Europe.

Obstacles to an Expanded French Presence in Central Asia

Multiple Actors:

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis held a panel discussion on Thursday, 18 May 2023, entitled "Strategic Autonomy: How France Sees the Future of EU-US Relations." The panel featured Dr. Jean-Loup Samaan, a Senior Research Fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore and Associate Research Fellow at the French Institute of International Relations. The discussion focused on how the concept of "strategic autonomy" developed in France as well as the historical context and main components of this policy.

How France Sees the Future of EU-US Relations (Panel Discussion)

Strategic Autonomy:

The dilemma of France’s presence in Africa, especially in the Sahel region, has escalated in recent years. Expressions of the mounting popular condemnation of France’s role in the Sahel vary, ranging from incidents of theft targeting French economic interests and commercial institutions and accusations that France acquires dubious contracts and imposes exorbitant prices, to the interception and blockade of military convoys and growing demonstrations against the French military presence, transmitted by audio and video across media and social media networks and interspersed with calls for the overthrow of France.

Signs of Increasing Anti-French Propaganda in Africa’s Sahel

Paris Under Pressure:

On September 26, 2022, InterRegional for Strategic Analysis organized a panel discussion, entitled, "The Macron Doctrine: How can we understand France’s strategy for the Gulf?" featuring Dr. Jean-Loup Samaan, a Senior Research Fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore and Associate Research Fellow at the French Institute of International Relations. The goal of the panel was to evaluate France’s policy, as a middle power, toward the Gulf region during the presidency of Emmanuel Macron.

How Can We Understand France’s Strategy for the Gulf? (Panel Discussion)

The Macron Doctrine:

Dr. Hamdy Bashir‏‏

On September 30, a military coup took place in Burkina Faso, the second in eight months, following a coup in early January of this year. The coup leaders accused France of supporting the leader of the previous coup, Paul-Henri Damiba, and demonstrations were staged calling for the expulsion of French forces from the country. This raises questions about the future of France’s military presence in Burkina Faso post-coup, especially after demonstrators set fire to the French embassy and raised pro-Russia flags in support of Moscow’s policy in the region.

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