Dr. Hamdy Bashir‏‏

A global monitoring report issued by the Institute for the Study of War's Critical Threats Project on June 26, 2025, warned of an escalation in attacks by ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Sahel region of Africa. This comes just days after an ISIS attack on June 23 on the village of Manda in the Goroual region of Tillabéri state in western Niger, which killed at least 71 people. Through this attack, ISIS sought to counterbalance al-Qaeda's terrorist operations in the Sahel, especially after the latter launched attacks against Malian government forces and the Wagner Group, inflicting heavy losses on them in early June. This raises numerous questions about the reasons for the renewed rivalry between ISIS and al-Qaeda in this region.

How Far Can Terrorist Group Rivalries Escalate in the Sahel?Dr. Hamdi Bashir

Struggle For Influence:

Mohamed Fawzy‏‏

The assassination of Ayman al-Zawahiri on 1 August 2022 carried many important implications and repercussions, both at the level of al-Qaeda itself and in terms of its relationship with other armed actors, specifically the Taliban and ISIS. In particular, Afghan reports talked about the involvement of ISIS in the assassination of al-Zawahiri, which raises many questions about the dimensions and aspects of the ISIS that benefit from the killing of  al-Zawahiri.

How Does ISIS Benefit from the Killing of al-Zawahiri?

Jihadist Rivalries:

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

After the 2011 killing of Osama bin Laden in an airborne operation carried out by American forces, Al-Qaeda did not face a leadership crisis because his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was expected to assume leadership of the organization despite the existence of several other candidates. This contrasts with the current situation of the organization, after the killing of al-Zawahiri in a US strike targeting his residence in the Afghan capital of Kabul, announced by US President Joe Biden on the morning of August 2, 2022. Apart from the circumstances, dimensions, and repercussions of the targeting of al-Zawahiri for various parties—particularly the Taliban, which bears direct responsibility for providing safe havens for Al-Qaeda leaders, specifically Ayman al-Zawahiri—Al-Qaeda may face a crisis in choosing its new leader.

Al-Qaeda

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