Menan Khater‏‏

*Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the cited authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of InterRegional for Strategic Analysis.The Anglo-American strikes in the Red Sea against Houthi militants have sparked widespread debate among Arab analysts and scholars. Writers of various political stripes penned opinion pieces on this question. Many have described the airstrikes as a belated response to longstanding instability in the Red Sea. These commentators contend that the US intervention primarily serves to safeguard its own vested interests in the Red Sea corridor. In light of US disregard for the persistent threat posed by Houthi rebels to Gulf nations, the US now appears to be a less reliable guarantor of Gulf security.Other observers perceive this move as an attempt to interfere with the development plans of emerging powers like China and Saudi Arabia. Since the Red Sea and especially the Bab al- Mandeb strait are strategically important to these powers, the Anglo-American joint strikes could disrupt their rivals’ regional interests. With the Houthis once again designated as a terrorist organization, the strikes are likely to continue, with concerns about the potential regionalization of the conflict across the Middle East continuing to grow.Key TakeawaysObservers came to several key conclusions about the airstrikes, and which can be summarized as follows: 1. Selective responses:&nbsp;One of the most widely-echoed critiques of the US-UK strikes in Yemen was that the strikes constituted a pattern of selective engagement by Western powers, particularly the US, in Middle East crises. Dr. Anwar Mohammed Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the president of the UAE, <a href="https://www.aletihad.ae/article/56483/2018/%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B4:-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B6%D9%8A%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%B7-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%A1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%AD%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%B1" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">described</a> the Houthis as a "terrorist gang" threatening the Red Sea and freedom of navigation. Meanwhile, Emirati columnist Mohammed Khalfan Alsawafi questioned the US response to this threat. He <a href="https://al-ain.com/article/questions-washington-decisions-against-houthi" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">asked</a> why, if the US was already aware of Houthi military targets and sites, it had not moved earlier to confront that threat.Dr. Abdulaziz Hamad Al-Owaishek, GCC Assistant Secretary-General for Political and Negotiation Affairs, <a href="https://aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%A3%D9%8A/4789901-%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%84-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9%D8%9F" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">wrote</a> in Asharq Al-Awsat that the strikes exposed the international community’s double standards. He noted that the UN Security Council swiftly passed a resolution condemning the Houthi attacks but had failed over a more than three-month period to reach a consensus over a ceasefire in Gaza. Dr. Al-Owaishek added that the Houthis have exploited this inconsistent US response to justify their moves and achieve political gains.2. Diversification policies a rational choice: Alsawafi also <a href="https://al-ain.com/article/questions-washington-decisions-against-houthi" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">wrote</a> that the bewildering nature of US Middle East policy underscores how crucial it is for Gulf countries to diversify their partners. Political analyst Mohamed Faisal Al Dossari <a href="https://al-ain.com/article/questions-washington-decisions-against-houthi" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">highlighted</a> how current developments have shown Emirati foreign policy to be successful, since it is built on solidarity and cooperation with all international parties and aims through economic development to reduce escalation. Others argued that the disruption of navigation was not a regional crisis but rather an international one. Mohammed Al Asoomi <a href="https://gulfnews.com/business/analysis/china-india-can-exert-influence-to-help-wind-down-red-sea-crisis-1.1706072148403" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">stated</a> that "the GCC’s trade exchanges have shift[ed] the center of gravity from West to East. This indicates that their foreign trade, including oil and gas, does not pass through the troubled Bab Al Mandab."3. Playing tug-of-war: A wide range of commentators agreed that neither Iran nor the US want escalation and that current developments reflect calculated risks from both sides. Dr. Aley El Din Helal said in a televised <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l4LHZuvXkk" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">interview</a> that both parties are aware of the gravity of escalation and therefore are abiding by certain rules of engagement. He noted that Iraq is becoming a new front in the war between Iranian proxies and the US. TV anchor Hussain Al Sheikh <a href="https://al-ain.com/article/america-iran-the-nuclear" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">characterized</a> the current tensions as a tug-of-war in which each party is careful not to let the rope slip and to avoid direct confrontation. The two sides are launching only occasional and partial maneuvers.4. Bad timing: The timing of the strikes has also been criticized, particularly in light of the upcoming US presidential elections. Dr. Gamal Gasim a Yemeni scholar and associate professor of Middle East studies and political science at Grand Valley State University, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.net/opinions/2023/12/26/%D9%87%D9%84-%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B4%D9%86-%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7-%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%8B%D8%A7" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">wrote</a> that it was in Biden’s interest to de-escalate the war in Gaza and avoid regionalization of the conflict, which could jeopardize his re-election prospects. Other analysts have <a href="https://www.aljazeera.net/opinions/2024/1/13/%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%81-%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D9%88%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A3%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%86" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">viewed </a>the strikes as an attempt to distract from the lawsuit filed by South Africa against Israel at the International Court of Justice.5. Reigniting armed conflict in Yemen: Arab commentators also saw the Anglo-American strikes on Yemen as an attempt to deter Iran and its proxies, but which was likely to further destabilize the region. Aloush <a href="https://www.aljazeera.net/opinions/2024/1/2/%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B0%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D9%83%D8%B4%D9%81-%D8%AC%D8%A8%D9%87%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%AD%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D9%86" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">argued </a>that these retaliatory attacks would not eradicate the Houthis or reduce the territory they controlled, but would be very costly for Israel and US interests in the region. Moreover, the strikes are likely to reignite armed conflict in Yemen. Journalist Eyad Abou Shakra echoed these concerns and <a href="https://www.alarabiya.net/politics/2024/01/14/%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%91%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9-%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B9%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%B1-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%8B-" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">wrote </a>that the US was using the strikes to increase its leverage in shaping the future map of the region.6. Disrupting development plans by emerging powers: Houthi attacks have significantly disrupted shipping routes at high cost to international maritime routes and US interests. Meanwhile, some analysts view the UK-US airstrikes as an attempt to disrupt development plans by US rivals in the region such as Saudi Arabia, China, and Russia. TV anchor Michella Haddad <a href="https://www.skynewsarabia.com/blog/1682715-%D8%A7%D9%94%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%95%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%81%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A9-%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%9F" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">suggested </a>that Biden was seeking to contain China’s projects in the Middle East from two sides: from the north, through the port of Haifa and the Indian trade route that Biden launched, and from the south, through Bab al-Mandeb.Policy RecommendationsThese commentators also shed light on potential solutions and policy recommendations, which can be summarized as follows: 1. Empower legitimate authorities in Yemen and restore peace: One way to counter Houthi threats and mitigate instability in the Red Sea is by enhancing Yemeni state-building and finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Dr. Al-Owaishek suggested that this could be achieved through ramping up inspection at the al-Hudaydah port to prevent weapons from reaching the Houthis, and bolstering the capacity of the Yemeni coast guard.2. A more strategic US stance: Arab analysts agreed that US stances against armed militants in the region must be more strategic and not just a form of blackmailing enemies. Al-Homayed departed from the general consensus and <a href="https://aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%A3%D9%8A/4788001-%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A-%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">suggested </a>that US operations should expand to other countries where Iran proxies operate, such as Lebanon and Syria.3. A need for case-specific analysis: Some observers have <a href="https://aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%A3%D9%8A/4787961-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A9-%C2%AB%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%C2%BB-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">argued </a>that understanding current tensions will require an in-depth analysis of the region’s specific dynamics. Such analyses cannot simply be imported from Western contexts. More attention should also be given to the dynamics of Sunni and Shi‘ite identities, which play an important role in shaping regional conflict.4. Taking into account Yemen’s rough terrain: Yemen’s flat-topped hills, rugged mountains, and desert plains will make it a difficult battleground for the US. Dr. Gasim <a href="https://www.aljazeera.net/opinions/2023/12/26/%D9%87%D9%84-%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B4%D9%86-%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7-%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%8B%D8%A7" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">noted </a>that this terrain is very similar to that of Afghanistan, especially the northern area of Yemen that the Houthis control.5. Political vulnerability for US: Analysts argued that in order for the US to preserve its standing as a global power, it must be able to secure navigation routes, though not necessarily by force. Yemeni writer Bushra al-Maqtari <a href="https://www.alaraby.co.uk/opinion/%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A-%D8%AE%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">wrote </a>that targeting ships in the Red Sea has put the US administration in a politically vulnerable position.In conclusion, the US-UK airstrikes in Yemen have created numerous challenges and potential repercussions. The strikes are widely viewed as a threat to US credibility as a security guarantor in the region, while commentators also underscored the complexity of the situation and potential risks of an expanding conflict in the Red Sea.&nbsp;

How Arab Opinion Editorials Tackled Escalation in the Red Sea?