Dr. Yasmin Calmet

On October 27, Uruguay held presidential and legislative elections. Yamandú Orsi of the center-left Broad Front (Frente Amplio) and Álvaro Delgado from the center-right National Party advanced to a runoff after neither candidate reached the 50% threshold in the first round. Orsi led with approximately 46% of the vote, while Delgado followed with about 28%. Uruguay, with a population of more than 3.5 million, is one of the countries in the region that, due to its stable political life, boasts a consolidated democracy. In sociopolitical terms, the country has the highest per capita income in Latin America, with low inequality and poverty rates. The National Institute of Statistics data shows that in the first half of this year, approximately 45,000 people rose out of poverty compared to the previous year. It also monitored improvements in the public education system. Uruguay’s constitution guarantees the highest protection of the right to education, serving as a framework for national laws and public policies.Since 2020, the government has been led by Lacalle Pou, a conservative politician who took office promising austerity measures and reforms to the pension system. Although the country’s political situation has not undergone major changes, the current government is facing allegations of illegal espionage and corruption, which have been a source of resentment among the public. As a result, presidential debates have focused on resolving issues such as corruption, security, the economy, and environmental concerns.In this context, electoral polls indicate three candidates with real chances. As of October 15, data from the Cifra Institute showed that Yamandú Orsi (Frente Amplio) had 47% of the vote intentions, while Álvaro Delgado (Partido Nacional), the candidate of the current president Lacalle Pou, had 32%, and Andrés Ojeda (Partido Colorado) had 15%. These figures indicated the possibility of holding a second round due to dispersed votes. Orsi advocates for honesty and the consolidation of rights; such as water, health, education, work, and security, as well as the defense of the environment, democracy, and peace, and the establishment of broad global agreements for a new economic order (multipolarity) to address socioeconomic inequalities and climate change. Delgado proposes fostering prosperity through the promotion of social entrepreneurship, opening markets for global economic integration, deepening the decentralization of the country, and ensuring individual rights.The presidential elections are held in conjunction with a referendum on constitutional reform related to social security and public safety. This has diverted voters’ attention from the main issues and citizen demands. Regarding social security, the proposal was pushed by the Inter-Union Workers' Plenary – National Workers' Convention (PIT-CNT) and seeks to establish pension rules in Uruguay's constitution, such as reducing the retirement age from 65 to 60, aligning the minimum pension with the national minimum wage, and eliminating private pension funds.This proposal has sparked controversy among activists and sectors of the main parties. Additionally, the three leading presidential candidates, as well as leaders of the Frente Amplio and the ruling coalition, oppose the proposal, arguing that it does not consider the current insufficiency of funds to finance the reform, which would require tax increases and reductions in investments in other priority areas of the state.The public safety reform proposal in Uruguay seeks to amend Article 11 of the Constitution, allowing police to enter homes at night without a court order, as a measure to combat drug trafficking and rising violence. The country faces an average of 10.7 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, many related to drug trafficking, according to official statistics. However, data from the Ministry of the Interior show a reduction in violence rates, and Uruguay remains among the countries with the lowest crime rates in Latin America.For the Frente Amplio candidate and some of the party's leaders, including former president Pepe Mujica, this proposal removes protections for citizens and their homes from potentially arbitrary measures. Moreover, they argue that forced entry, considering cases from other countries in the region, has not solved security issues — as it does not yield immediate results when implemented; on the contrary, it could lead to abuses and injustices. The other candidates acknowledge that this measure is complicated and suggest changes to the proposal, such as having a judge present, officials to ensure respect for citizens’ and police officers' rights, and appropriate technological tools to carry out actions.Polls indicate that while security is one of the main concerns of Uruguayan voters, support for the proposal allowing nighttime entry into homes has significantly decreased, dropping from 64% to 50% between May and September. It is worth noting that, according to Uruguay's electoral rules, a proposal can only be approved in a plebiscite if it achieves at least 50% + 1 of the votes. Regarding pension reform, support has also decreased. In May, 52% of voters supported the reform, while in September, support dropped to 42%. Polls suggest that both proposals have little chance of advancing toward approval.Finally, the results of the presidential elections will determine whether the country will continue toward a market-driven and private initiative-oriented direction (with Delgado) or return to strengthening the welfare state, with greater state participation in the economy and social protection (with Orsi). The outcome will also influence the direction of Uruguay's foreign policy and its role on the international stage.

How Uruguay’s Presidential Elections Can Shape New Policies