InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

In February 2024, the Defence Committee of the UK House of Commons issued a report entitled Ready for War?, which examined whether the British Armed Forces were equipped and prepared to defend the UK and its allies. The report also shed light on gaps in military capabilities, and current areas of weakness in readiness for a potential war in light of recent concerns about whether the British Army was still a "top-level fighting force." UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps stated in a January 2024 speech that a shift was underway from a "post-war to a pre-war world." This was followed by alarmist headlines on the need for the West to prepare for total war with Russia in the next twenty years. Admiral Rob Bauer, a top NATO official, has previously said that NATO countries, including the UK, need to develop their weapon production capabilities to sustain long-term conflicts. He also stated that governments need to talk with their citizens about mobilization, increase reservists, and even consider drafts.Structural ChallengesThe uncertainty of the global security environment has ramifications for the military forces of major powers. In light of these circumstances, there are numerous foreign and domestic crises that could potentially impact the UK military. Many reports have suggested that there are various indications that the British Armed Forces are seriously depleted, particularly with regard to the following points:1. Concerns about the effectiveness of UK military spending: The UK has the largest defense budget in Europe. Its budget is slightly larger than that of France and Germany, and unlike the latter two, the UK always devotes at least 2 percent of its GDP to defense. UK military spending is projected to rise to 2.3 percent this year, or a total of 52 billion GBP (equivalent to 66 billion USD).In 2021-22, the UK spent 45.9 billion GBP on defense. This is 3.6 billion more than last year. In the 2020 Spending Review, which included a review of military spending, the Ministry of Defence received a four-year settlement. At that time, the UK government allocated an additional 16.5 billion GBP to the defense budget for the period from 2020-21 to 2024-25.Although UK officials boast about their country’s military might and despite billions spent, the country is actually dealing with various complex challenges. These problems include the failure of large procurement projects, a lack of funding for defense equipment plans, a recruitment crisis, and an armed force that has become small enough that it risks falling below critical mass.2. Increasing UK commitments abroad: According to a report from Parliament, the UK sent more than 7,000 members of its armed forces abroad as part of more than 40 operations in 2023. Some of these operations are long-term commitments, while others were carried out in response to unexpected developments.During the last quarter of 2023, after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on 7 October and the Israeli offensive against the Gaza Strip, the UK sent a Royal Navy task force to the eastern Mediterranean as well as maritime patrol aircraft to the Middle East. It also sent naval vessels to the Red Sea as part of the US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian to secure global trade routes there. The UK sent a battalion to the NATO mission in Kosovo on the border between Kosovo and Serbia, following heightened tensions between the two countries. In late December 2023, the HMS Trent was deployed to Guyana to support the Commonwealth nation after neighboring Venezuela claimed parts of the Guyana’s territory.After the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, London hurried to deploy groups of its soldiers throughout Europe. It has often taken the lead in supplying Ukraine with equipment that was needed. UK forces have also been sent to various parts of the Middle East as part of anti-terrorism operations, especially in Iraq and Syria. All of this has resulted in growing military pressures on the UK.3. British Army projected to shrink: In light of the UK’s many military commitments, the limited scope of its armed forces constitutes a serious problem. When the Conservatives came to power in 2010, the British Army had more than 100,000 soldiers. However, the Conservative party decided to cut back the armed forces to 72,500 soldiers by 2025. This was part of the government’s efforts to expand its use of military technology, which would mean that fewer soldiers were necessary than in the past. As a result, the number of regular soldiers in the British Army had fallen to 75,700 by January 2023.Although the war in Ukraine has led to changes in structure of the global security environment, the UK’s plan to reduce the size of its armed forces has not shifted. The UK’s 2023 Integrated Review Refresh did not provide any recommendations about changes in the size of the military. However, the government has indicated that it will continue to modernize the armed forces which will significantly strengthen its capabilities, drawing upon lessons learned from the war underway in eastern Europe.4. Limited stockpiles and equipment obsolescence: The report issued by the Defence Committee indicated that the British Armed Forces have basic capabilities and limited stockpiles. Soldiers are leaving the army faster than new recruits can replace them. The British Army has obtained advanced Challenger 3 tanks, but only ordered 148 of them. In light of this, US generals and other allies have voiced concern about whether the British Army, after decades of cuts, has just become a small, if high-level, fighting force. A January 2024 Economist article indicated that "there are still wide gaps in what [the British Army] needs to be a credible force against a peer or near-peer enemy, including sufficient air defence, long-range missiles and electronic-warfare assets."It is also worth noting that the British Navy will be forced to withdraw older ships from operation because they lack the necessary crews. For example, lack of crews will force the navy to decommission two frigates—the HMS Argyll and HMS Westminster—in 2026, before identifying alternatives. Earlier in 2024, a Royal Navy aircraft carrier, the HMS Queen Elizabeth, was dropped from the largest NATO maneuver since the end of the Cold War, after a problem was discovered with a propeller shaft during last-minute inspections.5. Small air force and navy face equipment challenges: The Royal Navy and Air Force have dealt with various structural difficulties. In 2021, the government conducted an integrated review of its foreign, defense, development, and security policies. This was updated in 2023 due to the war on Ukraine. The Defence Committee in the House of Commons found that the naval forces had not been able to achieve the review’s objective of a "Global Britain" with its current fleet. The review indicated that the navy would need more ships, including type 31 frigates.According to the Economist report, the Royal Navy "is benefiting from significant capital investment, with new frigates and a planned successor to the Astute-class nuclear attack submarine as part of the AUKUS submarine deal with America and Australia." The report added that "under current plans, the navy will have just 19 escort vessels" and quoted Tobias Ellwood, a former chair of the Defence Committee, as saying: "The navy is too small by about half. We don’t have the flexibility to carry out full-spectrum activities."Furthermore, decisions made in 2021 to trim the size of the air force have not been revisited since the war in Ukraine. Most significantly, Tranche 1 Typhoon aircraft will be retired early and stripped for parts. Meanwhile, C-130 planes will also be retired early, while an order of E-7 Wedgetail airborne early warning and control aircraft was cut from five planes to three. The Economist quoted Ellwood as describing this move as "lunacy," since the latter cut saved only 12 percent of capital costs.6. Major recruitment crisis: The UK’s military challenges are exacerbated by a severe recruitment crisis. The armed forces lack the pilots and engineers needed to operate a larger fleet of aircraft, especially given difficulties in hiring experts in technology fields. The House of Commons report raised concerns about whether the UK could prevail on the modern battlefield.The British Army is struggling to meet even the lower targets it had set: there could be as few as 70,000 soldiers within two years. Recruitment targets for the army and navy have not been met since 2010, according to Labour Party data. Royal Navy personnel numbers are 5 percent below a target set in 2015, while the Royal Air Force is 9 percent below its target. Hopes of recruiting more skilled women have also faded as a result of a series of incidents of sexual harassment in the armed forces.To address the recruitment problem, General Patrick Sanders, the British Army chief of the general staff, stated in January that he wanted to train a "citizen army." Some saw this as a call to return to the draft. Another suggestion has been to call up former regular soldiers, who likely number around 200,000, for trainings once per year.Steps Towards ChangeGiven the above challenges, London is trying to pursue a series of measures aimed at addressing these issues. These efforts can be summarized as follows:1. Expand scope of military spending: In March 2023, the UK government announced a plan to allocate an additional 5 billion GBP to defense during the 2023-24 and 2024-25 fiscal years. This is because training and equipping a larger army will inevitably require more funding. The government has also hinted that it plans to spend 2.5 percent of the country’s GDP on defense in the long term. However, it has not yet set a timeframe for achieving this goal. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak indicated that this will happen "as financial and economic circumstances allow."Former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace promised that the country would spend at least 100 billion GBP annually on the army by 2030, or about twice what it spends today. However, given current inflation rates, the purchasing power of this sum will fall over the coming years.2. Increase personnel numbers for the army: In January 2023, the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee issued a report entitled UK Defence Policy: From Aspiration to Reality?. The report demonstrated that the committee agreed with the government about the need to revisit the integrated review in light of the war on Ukraine.In the report, the committee expressed its concerns about the size of the army, especially regarding the shrinking numbers of personnel. General Nick Carter, former chief of the defense staff for the British Army, also argued that the size of the army should be "in the order of 80,000." According to the House of Lords, this size army would be necessary to "ensure that the UK could field a full division of troops as part of a combined NATO force." The committee also heard evidence from Professor Michael Clarke, former deputy director-general of the Royal United Services Institute, who "argued that the government’s target size for the army would be sufficient to field a full combat division but would not leave sufficient capacity for the army to do anything else," according to the House of Lords.Local pressures on the UK government to expand the size of the British Army have also increased, particularly with regards to improving financial incentives for UK citizens to enlist. Although the UK government is not planning to introduce a draft, Chief of the General Staff Patrick Sanders did say that the country needed a "citizen army" for future wars with countries such as Russia and that preparedness for potential land wars must be a "whole-of-nation undertaking." Sanders praised European countries closer to Russia for "laying the foundations for national mobilization" and emphasized that the British Army needed to reach 120,000 soldiers within the next three years.3. Develop new military strategies: In 2023, the government updated its integrated review from 2021, and a Defence Command Paper from the same year. These set forth strategic goals for the UK’s international relations and defense policies. The British Army also unveiled its new strategy for "winning future wars": the Land Operating Concept. This strategy details how the armed forces will respond to future security threats.According to General James Bowder, director of Army Futures, soldiers will likely face increased risks on the battlefield in the form of enemy drones and long-range missiles. However, the new Land Operating Concept enables the army to develop a new approach to survival through effectively protecting troops while also targeting enemy artillery and surveillance systems as well as logistics chains. The British army will also work to increase the speed, scope, and complexity of its capabilities with regard to information warfare in order to gain tactical advantage.4. Recommit to nuclear deterrence: The UK defence secretary has affirmed the importance of nuclear deterrence as well as a 31 billion GBP modernization program. A Chatham House article drew on the example of India and Pakistan having nuclear weapons as a form of deterrence, since "the regular flare-ups and occasional actual conflict are inevitably kept to an even level because the price of escalation for both is just too high."5. Learning from the war in Ukraine: The UK has experienced an astonishing acceleration in its military capabilities since the war on Ukraine. British defense companies are testing weapons and equipment prototypes on the battlefields of eastern Europe. UK Minister of State for the Armed Forces James Heappey attributed improvements in the British Army’s technological capabilities to its support of Kiev. The UK has learned from Russian technology that has been seized during the war and from information obtained on the battlefield in Ukraine, including data from hacked Russian equipment.6. Positive uses of AI technology: In late 2023, the British Army issued a strategic paper clarifying its plans for becoming "AI Ready" by April 2024. This builds on previous strategies including the Integrated Operating Concept (September 2020), Digital Strategy for Defence (2021), Defence AI Strategy (June 2022), and Digital and Data Plan (2023-2025).The most recent AI strategy centers around ensuring that "the Army is a trusted and responsible user of AI, integrating human-centered AI across the whole force for decision advantage." According to the strategy, the value of AI is "derived from its ability to access and process vast quantities of data, at the speed of relevance." These capabilities will give the British Army a competitive advantage and boost operational efficiency against potential adversaries.In conclusion, the Conservatives have conducted four defense reviews during their thirteen years in power. With elections approaching, they will not be able to resolve problems that have been worsening for years. Just as the UK’s old fleet of armored vehicles has run into difficulties, the country’s defense system as a whole is no longer up to par. The next UK government is expected to move quickly and aggressively to address these challenges, including chronic shortages in skills, and a lack of funding necessary to purchase the most innovative and sophisticated military equipment. This is especially important since the gap between current capacities and future aspirations has become more prominent as threats to UK security have multiplied.&nbsp;

Is the British Army Ready for War?