Shaima Mahmoud‏‏

On September 19, 2026, Uganda announced the suspension of all military and defense cooperation with Turkey. The Uganda People's Defense Force (UPDF), led by Muhoozi Kainerugaba, made the decision following protests outside the Turkish Embassy in Kampala. The National Association of Ugandans organized demonstrations to call on Ankara to hand over a Ugandan activist living in Turkey. The UPDF <a href="https://legalbrief.co.za/diary/legalbrief-africa-new/story/uganda-and-turkeys-political-tensions-escalate/print/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">said</a> the suspension would remain in force until the two countries resolved their outstanding issues over military and defense cooperation.However, the decision did not apply to Uganda's broader relations with Turkey. Kampala continued to maintain diplomatic and economic ties with Ankara. On October 8 and 9, Ugandan Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs Norbert Mao <a href="https://www.instagram.com/ugandaembassyankara/p/DeWXZTwjN6a/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">met</a> Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and other senior officials at the International Justice Summit in Istanbul. Uganda also <a href="https://www.instagram.com/ugandaembassyankara/p/De_7jDSDExQ/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">participated</a> in the Antalya Tourism Fair, held from October 26 to 28.Uganda’s continued diplomatic and economic engagement with Turkey suggests that the suspension was limited to military and defense cooperation rather than a broader breakdown in bilateral relations.Key MotivationsSeveral factors appear to have contributed to the Ugandan military's decision to suspend all military and defense cooperation with Turkey:1. Ankara's Refusal to Extradite a Ugandan Opposition Blogger: One of the main reasons behind the suspension of military and defense cooperation between the two countries is Turkey's refusal to comply with Kampala's request to extradite Fred Lumbuye, a Ugandan blogger and opposition figure living in Turkey.Ugandan authorities accuse <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20260920-uganda-suspends-military-ties-with-turkey-over-extradition-of-museveni-critic-lumbuye" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">Lumbuye</a>, who is known for his criticism of President Yoweri Museveni, of committing 15 offenses, including incitement to violence, spreading false information, and computer-related crimes. In July 2022, a Turkish court rejected Uganda's extradition request.On September 18, 2026, tensions over the case resurfaced when hundreds of Ugandans affiliated with the National Association of Ugandans staged protests outside the Turkish Embassy in Kampala, demanding Lumbuye's extradition. The association is a civic organization and political pressure group led by army chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the son of President Museveni.2. Turkey's Allowing a Ugandan Opposition Figure to Operate from Its Territory: Kampala's position toward Ankara is also influenced by the fact that Ugandan opposition figure Fred Lumbuye continues to pursue his political and media activities from Turkey. While living there, Lumbuye uses social media posts and his YouTube channel, which has thousands of followers, to repeatedly criticize Uganda's leadership and government policies.His presence in Turkey has allowed him to reach an audience and exert influence on a scale that opposition figures operating inside Uganda may find difficult to achieve. This has made his continued activities from Turkish territory a source of concern for the Ugandan authorities.3. Uganda's Concerns Over Turkey's Growing Role in Somalia: Some reports point to Kampala's concerns over the implications of Turkey's growing military support and training for the Somali army, which could affect Uganda's influence in the region. For years, Uganda has been a key military player in Somalia's security landscape, deploying approximately 4,500 troops as part of the African Union's mission to support and stabilize the country, in addition to deploying around 2,000 troops under a bilateral agreement.Although Muhoozi Kainerugaba <a href="https://www.somaliguardian.com/news/somalia-news/uganda-begins-troop-pullout-from-somalia/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">announced</a> that Kampala had begun withdrawing its troops from Somalia on October 29, 2026, this is unlikely to ease Uganda's concerns about Turkey's growing role in the country.4. Escalating Tensions Between Uganda's Military and Turkey: Muhoozi Kainerugaba's announcement suspending all military and defense cooperation with Turkey in September 2026 is not an isolated development in Ugandan-Turkish relations. Tensions have been escalating for months. In April 2026, Kainerugaba, the son of Uganda's president, demanded that Turkey pay $1 billion in compensation for Uganda's military role in <a href="https://www.intellinews.com/could-the-uganda-turkey-defence-rupture-over-extradition-demand-derail-a-3-1bn-railway-contract-470471/?source=uganda" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">Somalia</a>, arguing that Uganda bears the military burden of fighting the terrorist group Al-Shabaab, while Turkish commercial interests benefit from improved security in the country.Kainerugaba also threatened to close the Turkish Embassy in Uganda and suspend Turkish Airlines' operations. In June 2026, he announced the cancellation of a standard-gauge railway project contract with Turkish company Yapi Merkezi and called on Turkish nationals to <a href="https://www.azernews.az/region/263691.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">leave</a> Uganda.Potential ImplicationsUganda's announcement suspending all military and defense cooperation with Turkey on September 19, 2026, could have several implications for bilateral relations: 1. Potential Impact on Turkish Investments and Economic Interests: Uganda and Turkey have several major economic projects and business interests at stake. The $3.1 billion standard-gauge railway project linking Malaba and Kampala is one of the most significant economic projects. The railway project is being implemented by Turkish company Yapi Merkezi and aims to connect Uganda to Kenya's railway network and the port of Mombasa.Bilateral trade between Uganda and Turkey also increased to approximately $160.5 million in 2025, more than double the $75.1 million recorded in 2024. Turkish exports to Uganda reached around $120 million in 2025, while Ugandan exports to Turkey totaled approximately $40.5 million. According to <a href="https://businessfront.com/finance/insights/ugandas-dispute-turkiye-africa-europe-economic-tension/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">data</a> released in May 2025, around 100 Turkish companies were operating in Uganda.2. Disruption of Uganda–Turkey Defense Cooperation: Military and defense cooperation between Uganda and Turkey has expanded in recent years, beginning with the signing of a military cooperation memorandum of understanding and a defense industry cooperation agreement in Kampala during Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's visit to Uganda in June 2016.The <a href="https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/turkish-president-criticises-eu-over-cutting-somalia-funding-1652600" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">memorandum</a> covers a broad range of areas, including reciprocal visits, military training, participation in joint exercises, defense industry cooperation, the exchange of military intelligence, logistical support, peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance, and counter-piracy operations.Uganda and Turkey signed a <a href="https://www.intellinews.com/could-the-uganda-turkey-defence-rupture-over-extradition-demand-derail-a-3-1bn-railway-contract-470471/?source=uganda" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">separate</a> military training cooperation agreement in September 2022 that further expanded their partnership to include the exchange of expertise, special forces training, counter-improvised explosive device (IED) operations, cyber defense, and military intelligence training. Subsequently, Turkey submitted the agreement to its parliament for ratification in 2024.The two countries also sought to move beyond conventional military cooperation into defense manufacturing, procurement, and technology transfer. In December 2024, Uganda's then-Defense Minister, Jacob Oboth, urged Turkey to establish a defense manufacturing center in Uganda, presenting the country as a potential regional hub for Turkish defense industries. To help implement the <a href="about:blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">initiative</a>, he proposed using the National Enterprise Corporation (NEC), the commercial arm of the Uganda People's Defence Force (UPDF).3. Potential Impact on European Economic Interests: A deterioration in relations between Uganda and Turkey could have indirect consequences for certain European economic interests in Africa, particularly if tensions begin to affect joint projects, investments, and trade. While Turkish companies maintain extensive trade and investment links with European markets, Turkey is becoming an increasingly important economic partner for African countries.Any disruption to Turkish projects in Uganda, or decline in Turkish investment, could therefore affect European companies operating in the same markets or relying on the stability of the country's business environment and infrastructure. A prolonged dispute could also create uncertainty regarding the stability of trade and investment relations in the <a href="https://businessfront.com/finance/insights/ugandas-dispute-turkiye-africa-europe-economic-tension/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">region</a> for some European investors and businesses.4. Constraints on Turkey's Regional Ambitions in East Africa: Uganda is an important strategic country in East Africa and the Great Lakes region, with a significant role in the security of the Horn of Africa. Therefore, strengthening ties with Kampala is an important part of Turkey's broader efforts to expand its presence across the <a href="https://businessfront.com/finance/insights/ugandas-dispute-turkiye-africa-europe-economic-tension/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">African continent</a>.Uganda's membership in the East African Community (EAC) also gives Turkey access to regional trade networks and opportunities to expand its investments in infrastructure, transportation, energy, agriculture, and telecommunications. Kampala’s strategic location also provides a gateway to neighboring markets, including Kenya, South Sudan, Rwanda, and <a href="https://www.storiesofbusiness.com/post/uganda-the-economy-of-a-landlocked-nation" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">Tanzania</a>.Although the current dispute has not escalated into a diplomatic breakdown, a prolonged suspension of military cooperation could constrain Turkey's efforts to expand its security presence in the region. It could also prompt Ankara to adopt a more cautious approach to avoid jeopardizing its broader economic and diplomatic interests in East Africa.5. Implications for Kainerugaba's Presidential Ambitions: Escalating tensions with Turkey could expose Uganda's military chief, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, to increased criticism, particularly given the contrast between his harsh statements toward Ankara and the government's continued efforts to maintain diplomatic and economic ties with Turkey.For example, Uganda's First Deputy Prime Minister, Rebecca Kadaga, <a href="https://www.intellinews.com/could-the-uganda-turkey-defence-rupture-over-extradition-demand-derail-a-3-1bn-railway-contract-470471/?source=uganda" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">attended</a> the African Business Forum and Expo in Istanbul to promote trade and investment opportunities on September 16–17, 2026. Meanwhile, President Yoweri Museveni <a href="https://www.newvision.co.ug/category/news/museveni-holds-talks-with-turkish-ambassador-NV_240870_102026" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">met</a> with the Turkish ambassador to discuss issues of mutual interest on September 17, 2026.These developments highlight a divergence within Uganda's approach to Turkey. While Kampala’s military leadership has adopted a confrontational stance toward Turkish interests, the government has sought to preserve diplomatic and economic ties. This apparent disconnect could affect Kainerugaba's political image, particularly as speculation grows over his potential role as his father's successor.ConclusionThe Ugandan military establishment is largely driving the current tensions between Uganda and Turkey, due to its adoption of an increasingly confrontational stance toward Ankara. Repeated statements by Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the president's son and head of the Uganda People's Defence Force, further widened the dispute, bringing military and security issues into a disagreement that initially centered on a political matter. Meanwhile, Uganda's continued diplomatic and economic engagement with Turkey reflects its efforts to contain the dispute and protect shared interests.Ultimately, easing tensions will depend largely on moderating the military leadership's rhetoric and actions, ensuring greater consistency in Uganda's official messaging, and returning outstanding issues to the negotiating table through diplomatic channels. These steps could help protect mutual interests and prevent the current dispute from undermining the future development of bilateral relations.

Uganda–Turkey Defense Cooperation Suspension and Its Implications