Dr. Yasmin Calmet

Political violence has escalated in Latin America, particularly in contexts where organized crime expands its influence over public institutions. This infiltration enables access to sensitive information, acts of blackmail, and the intimidation of authorities and opponents. It is a phenomenon that employs force, coercion, and threats, whether physical, psychological, or structural, to control political processes and restrict the engagement of social actors, whether through direct actions by authoritarian governments or non-state groups like drug cartels.In Mexico, this situation has worsened in recent decades. Violence against politicians and civil servants has become a grave menace, especially during electoral periods. Since the late 2010s, election cycles have been marked by brutal attacks. According to data from the Laboratory for the Analysis of Political Violence in Mexico, 122 candidates were assassinated in 2018. In 2021, this number dropped to 36, and in 2024, 37 deaths were recorded. Despite the slight reduction, the persistence of these crimes reveals institutional fragility, systemic impunity, and the growing power of cartels, which compete with state entities for territorial control and political decision making.In early May, Ximena Guzmán, personal secretary to Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada, along with José Muñoz, her political advisor, were executed on their way to work. The attack sent a direct message to the mayor's security policy, demonstrating that even the capital, where homicide rates have declined in recent years, is not immune to cartel violence. Furthermore, the crime exposed the limitations of the so-called "public security transformation policy" implemented by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and continued by current President Claudia Sheinbaum.Although the federal government claims intentional homicides have decreased by 22.4% since Sheinbaum took office (in 2024) – equivalent to 19 fewer deaths per day according to preliminary data – the political assassinations show the strategy remains insufficient to protect civil servants, officials and other political actors. Moreover, the offensive against organized crime, which has already arrested 200,000 suspects and destroyed more than 800 clandestine drug labs, has failed to prevent cartels from retaining their ability to target political figures.A Holistic ApproachThe Mexican government has adopted a multifaceted approach to combat organized crime, combining military operations, judicial reforms, and social programs. Among the main measures are:1- Militarization of Public Security: The National Guard, established in 2019, has taken over police functions in cartel-dominated regions. However, this strategy fails to address the structural roots of violence, such as drug demand, local economies dependent on drug trafficking, institutional corruption, and lack of investment in intelligence.2- Abolition of the Federal Prosecutor's Office: Replaced by the Fiscalía General de la República, this change aims to streamline legal processes but faces accusations of inefficiency and politicization.3- Social Programs: Initiatives like Jóvenes Construyendo el Futuro (Youth Building the Future) seek to reduce youth recruitment by cartels, but their effectiveness is limited by the lack of formal employment opportunities – a persistent issue in Mexico and much of Latin America.Despite these efforts, it is clear that the strategy against political violence and organized crime proves to be reactive rather than preventive. A 2023 report by the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) revealed that only 1.3% of crimes are solved, perpetuating impunity – a rate unchanged since 2018, despite promises of judicial reform. This enduring impunity partly explains the cartels’ audacity in targeting public figures.The resurgence of violence has reignited debates about Mexico's capacity to confront cartels without external assistance. During his campaign, Donald Trump claimed that President Sheinbaum was "unprepared" to curb the violence and advocated for more direct U.S. intervention, including joint operations or even designating cartels as terrorist organizations – a move that could justify military actions on Mexican soil.Trump's proposal has sparked justified controversy. While conservative factions in the U.S. argue for militarization as a definitive solution, the history of American interventions in Latin America demonstrates that such an approach would not only violate Mexican sovereignty but also escalate the conflict, with devastating consequences for civilians.In my analysis, the most effective alternative lies in strategic bilateral cooperation: sharing financial intelligence to combat money laundering, implementing strict controls on arms trafficking (with 70% of weapons coming from the U.S. market according to 2021 ATF data), and adopting policies to reduce drug demand in the United States, the primary consumer market.The recent killings in Mexico City expose the inadequacy of purely reactive strategies against drug cartels. Political violence persists due to structural failures: an ineffective judicial system, corrupt institutions, and a parallel economy that recruits marginalized youth.This problem has transnational roots. Cartels depend on drug demand from other countries (particularly the United States), cross-border arms trafficking, and international financial networks. Effective solutions require global cooperation, not just operational coordination but strict gun control in the U.S. and efficient public policies to reduce drug consumption.Mexico urgently needs institutional rebuilding. Beyond arresting criminals, the government aims to dismantle cartel protection networks through judicial reforms, police intelligence, and social development. Militarization offers only temporary relief; lasting solutions demand robust judicial mechanisms and social inclusion.In this delicate geopolitical context, especially with a potential Trump administration – the answer lies not in foreign intervention but in combining national sovereignty with smart international cooperation. Organized crime is a shared challenge no country can solve alone.

How Political Violence is Threatening Mexico’s Domestic Stability