Dr. Diana Galeeva‏‏

On 6 December 2023, Vladimir Putin visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia over the course of a single day as part of the Russian president’s first visit to the Gulf <a href="https://www.rbc.ru/politics/05/12/2023/656eeefb9a79476740c17453" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">since 2019</a>. Before his visit, Russian media drew attention to a Bloomberg story ("Putin Plans Visit to Gulf in Wake of OPEC+ Deal on <a href="https://ria.ru/20231206/putin-1914010147.html?utm_source=yxnews&amp;utm_medium=desktop" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Output Cuts</a>"). This article had suggested that Putin's upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia reflected the failure of US efforts to isolate <a href="https://ria.ru/20231206/putin-1914010147.html?utm_source=yxnews&amp;utm_medium=desktop" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Russia</a>. Since the Ukraine war began, Putin has made few international trips. For example, he did not attend other recent global summits such as BRICS, which was held in South Africa in August, or the G20 Summit held in India in <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67636648" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">September</a>. What does Putin’s recent visit to the Gulf mean for global geopolitical transformations?Discourse analyses of Russian, Western, and Arab media representations of Putin’s visit can help illustrate how the Russian leader aims to show that while Russia might be isolated by the West, it is not cut off from the rest of the world. For example, Russian newspaper Izvestia reported on how Putin’s visit to the Middle East had confirmed that comments on the isolation of the <a href="https://iz.ru/1618522/2023-12-11/vizit-putina-na-blizhnii-vostok-podtverdil-pustoi-zvuk-v-slovakh-ob-izoliatcii-rf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Russian Federation</a> were only empty words.Meanwhile, the Russian version of the BBC wrote that Putin’s visit had sought to demonstrate that Putin was not an outcast on the world stage and to show that Russia has many prominent partners, in addition to traditional allies China, Iran, North Korea and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c0w26ddwzr5o" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Belarus</a>. This article also discussed how <a href="https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c0w26ddwzr5o" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Putin</a>’s visit was important for the UAE, which is trying to cast itself as a neutral and wealthy country that attracts business and financiers from around the world. The UAE wants to be friendly to everyone so that it can serve as the ideal location for international meetings, fairs, and—when necessary—<a href="https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c0w26ddwzr5o" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">peace negotiations</a>.Russian news agency RIA Novosti quoted Kim Dotcom, the owner of the largest file hosting service Megaupload, on the social network X. This coverage <a href="https://ria.ru/20231208/putin-1914507308.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">stressed that</a>:You only have to look at how Putin was received in the UAE and Saudi Arabia during his visit to the Middle East to understand that the petrodollar is history and that the multipolar order is taking over. The Pentagon media calls Putin "internationally isolated," the businessman [Dotcom] said.In another piece, RIA Novosti quoted an interview with Lebanese writer and political analyst Hassan Al-Derr to show the Arab view of current events. Al-Derr drew attention to the Russian leader’s welcome in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, noting that the scope of this reception was a strong signal of support from two states that have traditionally been seen as US allies in the region. Al-Derr <a href="https://ria.ru/20231207/vizit-1914449385.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">noted</a> that Putin’s message to America was that it would not be leaving the Middle East and indeed would decisively strengthen its influence in the region. He added that the message from the UAE and Saudi Arabia to Washington was that the former remained open to all potential allies, and that this has been the approach of these two countries since the war in Ukraine began.All accounts of the recent visit are clear that Putin was successful in demonstrating that, against Western wishes, Russia is now welcome in the Gulf and elsewhere across the Arab region and world. Putin wants to be clear that the West is not the whole world, and moreover, that global geopolitics, despite decades of Western dominance, is now being reshaped.Arguably, the foundations of Putin’s warm welcome in the Gulf were laid in 2019, when the Russian president last visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Since then, the leaders have met in other countries: There was the famous high-five between MbS and Putin at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, while earlier in 2023, Mohammed bin Zayed was warmly received by Putin during the "Russian Davos," an economic forum held in St. Petersburg. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza and their geopolitical implications have further boosted bilateral relations.Russia has sought alternative trading partners to replace its severed ties with the West. Bilateral trade with the UAE, Russia’s main economic partner in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67636648" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Arab world</a>, grew by 68 percent in 2022 to a record $9 billion, including $8.5 billion in Russian exports. Russians were also the biggest international buyers of property in Dubai. For its part, Dubai has grown as a financial hub thanks to Russian business. After the Ukraine war began, a second wave of Russian economic migration occurred, especially to the UAE. Exports of Russian agricultural products to Saudi Arabia increased 49 percent in 2022, approaching $1 billion. Agriculture is an important dimension of Russia’s partnership with the Gulf in addition to military-technical cooperation. The economic power of the GCC has made these countries crucial to Russian efforts to overcome the economic isolation that the West would like to impose.Furthermore, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that discussing engagement with the oil market is always on the <a href="https://www.rbc.ru/politics/05/12/2023/656eeefb9a79476740c17453?from=copy" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">agenda</a>. On 30 November, OPEC+ countries affirmed a June agreement to reduce oil production in 2024. They agreed that in the first quarter of 2024, Saudi Arabia would continue to reduce oil production by 1 million barrels per day (bpd), so that production in December 2023 would be around 9 million bpd. Meanwhile, Russia will voluntarily reduce exports of oil and petroleum products by 200,000 bpd, meaning that total cuts will amount to 500,000 bpd. This includes 300,000 bpd of oil and 200,000 bpd of fuel. These energy deals benefit all sides, including by driving up GDP in the GCC states. However, the benefits for Russia are much more significant, since these deals reduce the impact of sanctions from a predicted 15 percent drop in the GDP to estimated reductions of only 7-10 percent in 2023. The GCC has enabled Russia to maintain key gas and oil income, while establishing alternative export routes to Western supply chains.&nbsp;Since war erupted in the Middle East on 7 October, Russia has regularly criticized Israel, the UN Security Council, and Western responses towards the war. At the same time, Russia has hosted Hamas delegations and continued to maintain ties with <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-call-netanyahu-flogs-putin-over-gaza-war-stance-and-blossoming-iran-ties/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Iran</a>. For example, during Iranian President Raisi’s recent visit to Moscow, the two leaders discussed the situation in the Middle East, and Raisi condemned the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-raisi-condemns-gaza-genocide-moscow-talks-with-putin-2023-12-07/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">genocide</a> in Gaza. The Muslim world is united in this stance on the war, and has supported Moscow’s claims that the West has shown "double standards" in the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/9/double-standards-world-reacts-to-us-vetoing-unsc-gaza-resolution" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Gaza war</a>.Furthermore, considering the failure of the international community in reaching a ceasefire, the Muslim world has begun to play more direct role. For example, in November 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted an Arab League summit and a summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to call for an end to the war in Gaza and reject justifications of Israel’s actions against Palestinians as <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/11/saudi-arabia-to-host-arab-islamic-summit-to-unify-efforts-on-gaza#:~:text=Leaders%20meeting%20in%20Saudi%20Arabia,of%20arms%20exports%20to%20Israel.&amp;text=An%20Arab%2DIslamic%20summit%20hosted,against%20Palestinians%20as%20self%2Ddefence." rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">self-defense</a>. The Saudi foreign minister called for an immediate ceasefire and lifting of the siege on Gaza while leading the Arab-Islamic Ministerial Committee delegation to <a href="https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/637968/SAUDI-ARABIA/Saudi-FM-Gaza-aggression-cannot-be-justified-under-the-pretext-of-self-defense" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Moscow</a>. Russia is also a key player in BRICS, which held an emergency video conference on 21 November, condemning the Israeli war on Gaza. This marked a shift for BRICS from a primarily economic coalition to a bloc taking a political stance against <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/11/21/brics-condemns-israel-war-on-gaza-in-signal-to-the-west" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">the West</a>.The warm welcome that Vladimir Putin recently received in the UAE and Saudi Arabia also reflects the "Saudi first" and "UAE first" policies in weighing Russia and BRICS against the West. On 1 January 2024, the UAE and Saudi Arabia will officially join BRICS. Their decision to either direct engage in the political and economic trajectory of BRICS to counter the West, or to only remain economic allies for Russia and BRICS could shape global geopolitical transformations in the medium term. In this case, how the UAE and Saudi Arabia choose to position themselves between the West and BRICS could strengthen one side or the other within the multipolar world order.&nbsp;

What is the Geopolitical Significance of Putin’s Visit to the Gulf?