Dr. Mohammad Salami‏‏

For centuries, the Middle East has been a meeting point of civilizations, which developed transport and trade routes connecting this region with other parts of the globe. The Middle East and Central Asia have long been at the crossroads of East Asia, Europe, and Africa, and the Silk Road is one of the oldest trade routes in the world.In recent decades, various countries have fiercely competed for their share of these trade and transit routes. This competition has centered around building corridors and landing domestic and foreign infrastructure investments to promote the flow of goods and transit. Rival countries are also seeking to bolster their respective influence in commercial networks in the region and beyond.The Middle East and West Asia have become hubs for communications and trade networks. Turkey has been particularly focused on launching extensive initiatives to make the most of its geopolitical position.In just two decades, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Turkey-pushes-25bn-Iraq-transport-route-over-India-Europe-corridor" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">invested</a> more than 194 billion dollars in transportation and telecommunications infrastructure. By 2053, another 162 billion dollars will be invested in these sectors, while the total scope of railway infrastructure is set to double during this time to 28,000 kilometers (approximately 17,400 miles).As a geopolitical bridge between Asia and Europe, Turkey is central to the Middle Corridor, a route linked with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Middle Corridor passes through Turkic countries and connects Europe in the west to China in the east. In November 2015, Turkey <a href="https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/turkeys-middle-corridor-and-belt-and-road-initiative-coherent-or-conflicting-24526" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">signed</a> a Memorandum of Understanding with China on aligning the Middle Corridor project with the BRI.Between 2020 and 2021, the Middle Corridor saw a 52 percent increase in <a href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2022C64/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">traffic</a>. This corridor became even more strategically important after the Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted the Northern Corridor. Since the Russian invasion, Chinese and EU shipments along the Northern Corridor (which connects China to Europe via Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus) have dropped by 40 percent. Meanwhile, statistics indicate that the volume of cargo transported through the Middle Corridor between January to March 2022 was up by more than 120 percent compared to the same period in 2021.Iran is another country with key international corridors passing through its territory. In fact, Iran is located at a global crossroads between the Far East and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), in addition to being at a crucial juncture between Europe and Africa. Iran’s unique geopolitical position makes it a critical player in international transport and trade.Iran’s 7th National Development <a href="https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/10/23/713260/Iran-transit-corridors-INSTC-Russia-" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Plan</a> included provisions for developing corridors through which at least 50 million tons of goods could be transported annually. Iran has eleven ports of varying sizes in the north and south of the country which can collectively handle 270 million tons of goods per year. It has discussed joining several economic corridors, including the East-West Corridor and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). INSTC is a network of routes that is 7,200 kilometers (4,470 miles) long that <a href="https://en.irna.ir/news/85401736/North-South-corridor-strategic-for-entire-region-Iran" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">facilitates</a> transportation of cargo between India, Iran, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe. This corridor became <a href="https://financialtribune.com/articles/domestic-economy/109271/instc-transit-train-arrives-in-iran" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">operational</a> after construction of railway links enabled several trains from Russia and Finland to reach Iran, but full completion of INSTC will require several more years.The INSTC is expected to generate 20 billion dollars for Iran, and it is projected that every 100 tons of cargo will <a href="https://www.irna.ir/news/84793559/%D9%81%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%86-%DA%A9%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D8%AA%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%AF%DB%8C%DA%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%AA-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%B2%D8%AF%D9%87%D9%85" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">create</a> 10 direct jobs and about 50 indirect jobs for Iranians.Among all the new corridors, the newly announced India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) has attracted particular attention. IMEC was unveiled during the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023.IMEEC aims to connect India to European markets via a shipping route to the UAE, which is then linked via a rail network to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel. The route then continues on across the Mediterranean Sea to Greek ports. More than 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) of railway will be needed to complete this corridor, with construction costs currently estimated at between 3 and 8 billion dollars.A fourth corridor, Iraq’s Dry Canal or Development Road project, includes two land routes plus the Grand Faw Port, which was <a href="https://thecradle.co/articles-id/1473#:~:text=Likewise%2C%20the%20Dry%20Canal%20is,then%20to%20the%20Syrian%20border." rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">launched</a> in 2010. The Grand Faw Port will be the largest port in West Asia with a total of 99 berths. The Dry Canal includes railways, highways, and oil and gas pipelines directly connecting Iraq’s Grand Faw Port with Europe via Turkey or Syria. This corridor will reduce the time it takes goods to reach Europe by 20 to 25 days and will cut transport costs in half.In light of regional competition over these corridors, it will be key for countries to pursue opportunities for cooperation. This will make it possible to revitalize regional economies and strengthen communications while continuing to develop the corridor projects and furthering the national interests of each country involved.IMEEC has largely been seen as an anti-China initiative that would function as a rival route to the BRI. The US has planned development of the IMEEC as part of its strategic competition with Beijing, while India’s involvement in this corridor is the result of its political differences with and interest in containing China.The Greek port of Piraeus—which is the largest port in Greece and one of the largest in Europe—will <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/91214" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">receive</a> cargo from the Israeli port of Haifa, and constitutes an important linkage within IMEEC. The Chinese shipping company COSCO has been the majority stakeholder in the port since 2016, when the Greek government sold the corporation a two-thirds stake in Piraeus. In other words, a Chinese company has considerable power to decide the future of this Greek port and the function of its piers and terminals. At this point, it is unclear whether India and the US have overlooked this important strategic consideration or if they will attempt to buy stakes in Piraeus to shift the balance of power away from COSCO.With regard to the Middle Corridor, the volume of transit through the Azerbaijani rail section of the corridor <a href="https://www.commonspace.eu/opinion/opinion-it-time-rethink-logic-behind-middle-corridor" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">peaked</a> at over 400,000 tons per month in mid-2022. However, rail transit volume flattened and then gradually fell for most of 2023. This was partially because the sanctions-driven logistics frenzy had melted away and business had more or less returned to normal. The shift in transit volume during that time could also be partially attributed to the steep increase in Chinese overland exports to Russia.The Dry Canal is also facing many challenges. Although it will be a <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/op-ed/the-development-road-an-ignored-project-between-iraq-turkiye" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">beneficial</a> project for Iran, Iran might not allow the Iraqi government to proceed with the project if it does not allow Tehran accessing to ports in Basra and Syria. It also remains unclear what stance the US administration will take towards this project.Given the various technical problems these corridors face, it is clear that all of these economic crossings need to be developed and exist alongside each other. This cooperative scenario will <a href="https://www.ecoiran.com/fa/tiny/news-59384" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">require</a> a degree of political accommodation between the great powers as well as innovative solutions and a willingness to seek common ground. The choices that regional and global powers make over the coming years will determine whether these corridors become bridges to cooperation or obstacles to peace and prosperity.

How Middle Eastern Countries Are Competing over Trade Routes