Germany’s sixtieth Munich Security Conference was held from 16 to 18 February 2024. The conference opened with a speech by UN Secretary-General António Guterres. It was attended by US Vice President Kamala Harris and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz along with more than 100 official delegations from various countries, as well as the heads of international and civil society organizations. Key topics of discussion among delegations included the war in Ukraine and the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip. Other issues included climate change, AI, irregular migration and asylum, terrorism, and the future of US-China relations.

As the conference came to a close, Russia took control of the key Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. European support for Ukraine has been scaled back while US military aid to Kiev is on hold, which has raised fears of a Russian victory in the war that began two years ago. This increases the dangers of current geopolitical shifts, which could affect the NATO and European security arrangements. It could also alter structure of the current world order, as Russia and China call for a multipolar rather than unipolar order.

Global Shifts

The Munich Security Conference was first held in 1963, and has been held annually since then in mid-February. Politicians and security leaders from around the world meet to discuss pressing security issues. The conference is funded by the German government and the private sector. Before the conference began, an extensive Munich Security Report 2024 was released, entitled Lose-Lose?, which detailed current security risks. This report highlighted how the severity of security threats escalated in 2022 and 2023. The conference leadership invited dozens of countries, except for Russia and Iran, while representatives of far-right German parties also declined to attend. Anti-NATO demonstrators gathered as the conference took place, while other activists held an annual counter-conference, the Munich International Peace Conference.

The context of this year’s Munich Security Conference highlighted various key issues including:

1. Importance of participation from Global South: This year’s conference included 60 events with 250 speakers, 27 percent of whom were from the Global South. This marked the highest participation to date at the security conference, and brought Global South issues to the center of international discussions. These included the conflict in the Middle East, nuclear armament, and issues of concern to the Global North and South such as irregular migration. Various countries had the opportunity to discuss their perspectives on these issues. Guterres called for a 500-billion USD annual stimulus development for impoverished countries over the long term.

2. Gaza war shapes international dynamics: The Munich Conference was held as the Gaza war continues to shape international dynamics. The war has become only further entrenched as it enters its fifth month. More than 29,000 Palestinians have been killed while ceasefire proposals in exchange for release of hostages continue to be rejected. There are fears of an Israeli ground operation in Rafah in the south of the Gaza Strip, despite warnings from the international community and Arab world that such an operation would have catastrophic consequences. The casualties of this military operation could exceed existing casualties of the past months of war, because there are 1.4 million Palestinians currently in Rafah, most of whom were displaced from northern Gaza. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on Israel to adhere to international humanitarian law in the Gaza Strip and not to launch a second northern front with Lebanon.

3. Ukrainian military struggles under Russian assault: After more than two years of the war on Ukraine, the situation has become more difficult since the Ukrainian counteroffensive strategy has failed. There is also uncertainty about continued Western support for Kiev. This problem came to the forefront in recent days when Moscow announced, with the Munich conference underway, that it had taken full control of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. This is the first major progress Russian forces have made in Ukraine since May 2023, as the war now approaches its second anniversary after being launched on 24 February 2022. The city of Avdiivka is particularly important because it is located 50 kilometers from the logistical center of the Ukrainian army in Pokrovsk. There is also debate in Europe over continuing military support for Kiev, while the US Congress continues to hold up 60 billion dollars in aid to Ukraine. There are concerns that the Ukrainian defense could collapse if NATO aid is halted.

4. Growing calls to restructure European security: In recent years, there have been increasing calls to restructure security arrangements in Europe without relying on US support or NATO. These calls have recently escalated during the Munich conference, especially after former US President Donald Trump said that he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies that did not contribute 2 percent of their GDP to defense. This created concern in eastern European NATO countries about potential repercussions for European security if Trump wins the upcoming US presidential elections at the end of this year.

5. Rise in non-traditional security threats: The 2024 Munich Security Report indicated that irregular migration and climate change are the two leading threats to global security, followed by cyberattacks, AI, terrorist cells, extremist Islamist groups, and organized crime.

6. Increasingly fraught Western relations with China: Western relations with Beijing remain a contentious issue in the West. There are different perspectives on how the West should approach these ties. Some countries are trying to maintain relations with Beijing, especially in the economic sphere, while others are escalating tensions with Beijing. There is a general Western trend towards not seeing China as an ally, but rather as a significant threat. The 2024 Munich Security Report indicated that there was a strong consensus among Western countries that they need to reduce trade reliance on China, even if that has economic consequences for the West.

7. Continuing international interest in Indo-Pacific competition: Indo-Pacific rivalries have recently captured significant international attention. The 2022 US National Security Strategy indicated that the region would be the "epicenter of 21st century geopolitics." This is due to the geopolitical significance of the region, since it is home to 60 percent of the world’s population and responsible for 60 percent of global GDP. The region also contains important trade routes, and 25 percent of all maritime trade passes through the Malacca Strait alone.

There is increased rivalry between various powers in the region, and the Indo-Pacific is the main theater of US-China competition. Beijing has a vision for the region that centers China, and is pushing towards establishing a security infrastructure that relies entirely on Asian nations. This implicitly means a region free from US alliances and their influence. Meanwhile, the US has ramped up its involvement in the region, adjusted how it positions its military power, deepened alliances and partnerships, and launched new programs for economic connections. Washington has also developed a "free and open Indo-Pacific" concept.

Key Takeaways

There are various key takeaways from the Munich Security Conference discussions, including:

1. Fears of all-out regional war in the Middle East: US Vice President Kamala Harris warned during a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani at the Munich Security Conference that Washington would launch further strikes on Iraq if US troops and bases continued to be targeted by armed groups.

Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shoukry and his Jordanian counterpart, Ayman Safadi, warned of "catastrophic" consequences if Tel Aviv carried out its plan of forcibly displacing Palestinians or if an Israeli military campaign was launched on Rafah. In this scenario, the war in the Gaza Strip could extend into a war throughout the region. The Israeli-Hezbollah front in Lebanon could also heat up as Houthi operations in Yemen against trade vessels continue and Shi‘ite armed groups target US military bases in Iraq. This could lead to negative consequences for regional peace and security, in addition to economic repercussions. US and European interests in the Middle East will be impacted by disruptions to shipping through straits in the region, as well as by the rising cost of oil and slowed supply chains from Southeast Asia to Europe.

2. Fears of a Russian victory in the war on Ukraine: Discussions during the conference made clear that the Ukrainian army has failed to achieve any progress in the field through its counteroffensive last year. Meanwhile, the Russian army has successfully held onto the cities it occupied in the east of the country. There are growing fears in Europe of a Russian victory in the war that has now lasted two years, particularly if US support for Kiev ends, or if the war reaches a stalemate. There could also be an implicit acknowledgement of new facts on the ground as Russia maintains control of cities in eastern Ukraine, as was the case when Russia occupied the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. This would drain European and US capabilities, after both Europe and the US have offered unprecedented support for Kiev without tangible results.

3. Zelenskyy demands continued Western support for Kiev: In his speech at the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked for contained military support for his country. Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba also asked his US counterpart Antony Blinken to provide new arms to Kiev, including ATACMS missiles which have a range of 300 kilometers.

It is worth noting that on 16 February, while the Munich conference was being held, a new security agreement was announced between Ukraine and Germany. This agreement sought to ensure ongoing support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Scholz affirmed that this 1-billion-euro security agreement between Berlin and Kiev would not result in Germany sending its forces into Ukraine. He said that it would not make Germany party to the conflict between Kiev and Moscow, and affirmed that Russia was not ready for a lasting and just peace. Ukraine also signed two similar agreements with France (in mid-February) and the UK (in January) with the aim of providing new security infrastructure for Ukraine and repelling Russian attacks.

4. Reformulating the Chinese peace plan for Ukraine: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi indicated during a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Kuleba that Beijing would work towards holding peace talks for Ukraine. This heralded the possibility of reformulating a Chinese peace plan for Ukraine, which Beijing initially proposed in mid-2023. Moscow had agreed to this earlier proposal, while Kiev and Washington rejected it. The plan included an immediate ceasefire and negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, as well as an end to sanctions imposed upon Russia.

Kiev described this plan as favoring Russia, with which China wants to establish "strategic cooperation." Meanwhile, Ukraine is trying to convince China to support Ukraine’s 10-point plan for peace, which focuses on the withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied Ukrainian territory, and a return to 1991 borders. Moscow has firmly refused a deal with such parameters. Shifting conditions in the region and on the battlefield could give Ukraine the opportunity to rethink peace plans and a ceasefire, given Kiev’s failure to advance militarily, and in light of uncertainty about continued US and European military support for Ukraine.

5. Efforts to alleviate tensions between Washington and Beijing: On 16 February 2024, a meeting was held during the conference between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. The pair discussed various issues between the two sides in an effort to further rapprochement and avoid escalating tension or conflict. Sources of potential tension include US support for Taiwanese independence, Chinese support for North Korea, and US opposition to Russian-Chinese strategic cooperation as well as China’s actions in Southeast Asia. There have also been disputes over the Indo-Pacific region and trade wars, and even Chinese-Russian calls for a shift to a multipolar instead of unipolar world order.

Blinken indicated that cooperation would continue in combatting drug trafficking and in building communications between the Chinese and US armies. He emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Meanwhile, Yi indicated that it was necessary to maintain open lines of communication between Washington and Beijing, and to work together to achieve good outcomes for both countries and for the world as a whole. Washington and Beijing appear to be working together to manage disputes in order to avoid any economic losses for either side in light of their interdependence.

6. Importance of strengthening European security capabilities: Scholz called on European countries to strengthen their self-defense capabilities regardless of the outcome of the upcoming US elections or the war in Ukraine. He affirmed that Germany had increased its defense spending to 2 percent of its GDP, and that this would continue. He also indicated that Germany would work with France and the UK to develop precise weapons with long-distance capabilities in order to pursue its strategy of deterrence. This announcement came after former US President Donald Trump criticized NATO countries for not maintaining their commitments in allocating sufficient funds to defense budgets. Trump said that he would not protect these countries, and that he would even encourage Russia to take "whatever" steps against these nations.

7. European calls to prepare for long-term war with Russia: During the conference, German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius called for preparing for long-term war with Russia and for building a joint European security structure, as Russia tries to extend control into eastern and central Europe. European Commission President Ursula von der Leye stated during the conference that the commission would present a proposal for a European defense strategy with the aim of increasing defense spending and ramping up joint procurement as well as agreements to provide predictability. She discussed improving joint efforts between the European armed forces, and called for the inclusion of Ukraine in European defense programs.

8. Blinken emphasizes containment of Tehran: Although Iran was not invited to the conference, it was present in the discussions there, through some civil society forces that criticized the Iranian regime’s policies, and through viewpoints expressed by various officials about the threat of Tehran. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken affirmed the need to contain Iran in order to have an "integrated region where people are actually working together for the common good." He described Iran as the "number one threat to [Israel’s] security as well as the security of many of us." According to Blinken, neutralizing the Iranian threat is only possible if Iran is "isolated along with all of its proxies."

9. Tel Aviv’s efforts to reduce international criticism: Israel tried to get other nations to tone down their criticism, especially given talk of a potential military operation on Rafah. During the conference, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz denied that his country intended to displace Palestinians from the Gaza Strip because Israel did not want to rule Gaza after the war on Hamas. However, he indicated that Israel would "have to deal with" Rafah.

It is worth noting that the conference included a meeting between various foreign ministers from the Italian-led G7. The concluding statement from the G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting called for "urgent action to address the catastrophic humanitarian crisis in Gaza, particularly the plight of 1.5 million civilians sheltering in Rafah." The statement also expressed "deep concern for the potentially devastating consequences on the civilian population of Israel’s further full-scale military operation in that area."

10. Calls for changes to the international order: In his opening remarks, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for a multipolar global order and reforming the UN Security Council to address current geopolitical challenges in various regions of the world, including heightened armed conflict in the Middle East, Caucasus and Eastern Europe. This was met with positive responses from China, Russia, Brazil, and the countries that support them.

The chairman of the conference, Christoph Heusgen, said that 2024 reflected "a downward trend in world politics, marked by an increase in geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty." This could lead to shifts in various spheres. One potential indicator of this is a restructuring of European security arrangements in which European countries are strengthening their own security capabilities without looking to their US ally for support. Europe is also restructuring security arrangements in light of the war in Ukraine. A similar state of affairs is happening in Southeast Asia, where China is working to bolster its political influence and military presence in the region. There could also be repercussions of the Russian war on Ukraine and the Israeli war on Gaza. The end of these wars will signal a new balance among regional powers in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, which will in turn shape the international balance of power, and US, Russian, and Chinese influence in these regions.

11. Warnings of escalating regional conflict: UN Secretary-General António Guterres opened the conference by expressing his concerns that the world is "facing existential challenges" while "the global community is more fragmented and divided." He noted that "we still face the nuclear danger" today and that the climate crisis and "risks of uncontrolled artificial intelligence" were also of existential concern. He warned against the escalation of current wars given unprecedented violations to international humanitarian law, and that current international challenges were potentially more dangerous than those during the Cold War era. Guterres called for a lasting and just peace to end the war in Ukraine, and indicated that this peace should be grounded in respect for the territorial integrity of sovereign states.

In conclusion, the 2024 Munich Security Conference seems to have provided a timely opportunity to discuss various perspectives on current global geopolitical and security challenges. It drew attention to current international polarization between Russia, China, and the US, and competition between them as the international order shifts. The conference also highlighted fears in Europe and the Arab world about the fallout of current regional wars in the Gaza Strip and Ukraine. These geopolitical shifts will clearly produce a new international order in these regions in the medium term.

What Are the Key Takeaways from the Munich Security Conference 2024?