The year 2024 is shaping up to be an important year in the course of political systems and governments around the world, with much of the world population heading to the polls to choose new leaders and representatives at various levels. Elections are slated to take place in more than 75 countries, most notably the presidential elections in the United States and Russia and the parliamentary elections in the UK and India. There will also be local elections in Turkey, Brazil, and Canada, as well as parliamentary elections in the EU. Of course, many economic and political factors will impact each election. The election results will reflect regional and international environmental circumstances, with a new political elite helping to reshape the geopolitical factors that will determine the mechanisms for political and economic engagement with the international crises that have extended into the current year, including the Ukraine war, the Israeli war on Gaza, and sluggish global economic growth rates.

Key Indicators

Many diverse countries dispersed throughout five continents will hold elections over the course of this year, some of which will have greater importance than others given their resulting political and economic effects. This wide-ranging electoral landscape entails several key indicators, as follows:

1. Large percentage of the world’s population to vote in the 2024 elections: The year 2024 could be described as the "year of global elections," with 4 billion people of voting age (18 years old)—nearly half of the world’s population—voting in elections in 76 countries. By some estimates, more people will vote at the international level in 2024 than in any previous year. Elections are being held in several countries with large populations, such as Indonesia, India, and the United States, which helps boost the number of voters.

2. Elections spread throughout different regions of the world: Elections set for the year 2024 are spread throughout various parts of the world rather than focused on a single region, which points to the distribution and globality of their effects, in addition to the impacts within each region. For example, the 2024 elections include countries like Chad, South Africa, and Togo, while Europe will have national elections in countries like Georgia, the UK, and Finland.

Among the countries that will hold elections this year are South Korea, Bangladesh, and Pakistan in Asia, the US and Canada in North America, Brazil and Venezuela in South America, and the Solomon Islands and Australia in Oceania. In the Middle East and North Africa, an independent region in its own right, Turkey and Iran will hold elections, as well as Arab countries such as Algeria and Jordan.

3. Elections planned at various levels: Elections of varying types and levels are scheduled for the year 2024. Despite the focus on prominent presidential elections, such as those in the US and Russia, there will be parliamentary elections in other countries like India, Portugal, and Iran, as well as local elections in such countries as Turkey and Brazil, and provincial, as opposed to general, elections in federal countries like Pakistan. In addition, there will be supranational bloc elections, such as the upcoming European Parliament elections. Some countries will hold elections at various levels, such as Lithuania, whose presidential elections are set for May of 2024, followed by parliamentary elections in October of the same year.

4. Anticipated course of elections in major countries: The electoral map for 2024 shows that national elections will be held in several major countries. Russia and the US will hold important presidential elections that will have potential repercussions on the policies of those countries, as well as on global interactions. Likewise, legislative elections in the EU and the UK will be reflected in the domestic political equation in London, amid pressures on the Conservative Party.

5. Elections in a number of international crisis hotspots: Significantly, some elections in 2024 will be held in international crisis hotspots, which increases the importance of these elections and makes them a subject of great international interest. Perhaps the most significant example of this is Russia, as well as the upcoming elections in Ukraine that have apparently been postponed due to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s insistence on not holding them at the present time. Likewise, Taiwan’s presidential elections will be held as tensions are rising between Beijing and Taipei, and elections in some African countries may cause tensions and crises in several countries that suffer from major political and security challenges.

6. European elections amid the rise of the far right: From 6 to 9 June 2024, the 27 members states of the EU will participate in the European Parliament elections, amid expectations that the far right will increase its seats in the new parliament and control a quarter of its seats (180 of 705 total seats). Issues such as the Ukraine war and security policies, the economy, immigration, EU expansion, and climate change will take priority on the new parliament’s agenda, while the main European governments in Germany, France, and Italy will face ongoing internal divisions. This suggests the possibility that early elections will be held in one of those countries, and several Eastern and Northern European countries will also hold parliamentary elections dominated by the repercussions of the Ukraine war.

7. Impact of the economy on the global election landscape: Despite the wide-ranging effects of political crises and issues on voting behavior, the economy will continue to be an important factor in the international electoral landscape in 2024. For example, the economy tops the agenda of many right-wing parties in Europe that are betting on their chances to achieve further progress in the upcoming 2024 elections. This situation is clear in many other countries. For example, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe is highlighting the economic stability during his presidential term in order to prepare for the 2024 elections and support his political chances.

8. Controversy over African elections: The dates for parliamentary or presidential elections in African countries in 2024 remain uncertain, and a number of them may be postponed due to civil and ethnic conflicts and economic conditions. Presidential elections are expected to be held in Tunisia in October of 2024, after the first five-year term of President Kais Saied expires. Saied is expected to run again, and the elections will be the first ones held in accordance with the country’s new constitution of 2022, which changed the system of governance from a parliamentary to a presidential system. Here, a dispute has arisen among Tunisian legal experts concerning the need to extend the president’s term to the year 2027, because, after the preparation of the country’s new constitution, the president’s term must be recalculated. The opposition rejects this and emphasizes the need to hold elections in 2024 after Saied completes five full years in power.

Meanwhile, South Africa is experiencing a state of political uncertainty ahead of its general elections, due to the intense competition between the ruling party and the opposition represented by the Democratic Alliance. Presidential elections are scheduled in Senegal on 25 February 2024, without the participation of outgoing President Macky Sall. Many people will run, perhaps most notably Amadou Ba, the ruling party’s candidate. Nevertheless, there are doubts about the eligibility of the main opposition candidate, Ousmane Sonko, given his numerous prosecutions.

9. Possible increased technological influence in elections: For good or ill, voting in various countries has seen increased technological influence in recent years. However, the recent boom in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) raises questions about the limits of AI applications in elections around the world. While AI applications may help candidates reach voters and design their election campaigns, it appears that these applications may help some parties mislead public opinion and distort the images of opponents. In this context, Western fears have emerged about the interference of certain hostile forces, such as Russia and China, in the Western electoral landscape through the use of technology tools and AI applications.

Possible Repercussions

The elections scheduled to be held in various countries in 2024 entail several possible repercussions, as follows:

1. Possible effects on the global economy: The countries holding elections in 2024 contribute more than 60% of global GDP, which will lead to mutual influences among the economic and political dimensions of the electoral process. Economic issues will be a priority in parliamentary, presidential, and local election campaigns in every country, and the winners will set policies on issues such as tax breaks, technology transfer, AI development, debt relief, and mechanisms for using renewable and traditional energy.

If the far right or populists win in some developing and European countries, they will tighten control over trade and foreign investment. India, which will hold elections this year, is the fifth-largest and fastest-growing economy in the world, and Modi’s victory will continue his competitive policies with China to localize innovative industries in his country. Likewise, the industrial community in Indonesia fears that the new president will change policies on important metals, such as nickel. There is a chance that Trump will return to the White House, which would bring back the China-US trade war begun in 2018 and impose further tariffs on trade with European countries.

2. US-China tensions in Southeast Asia: Opinion polls suggest that the Taiwanese ruling party’s candidate, William Lai Ching-te, will win the presidential election, which will exacerbate tensions in Southeast Asia due to China’s criticisms of Lai. Chinese escalation may include military exercises using live ammunition near Taiwan or a partial suspension of the Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, which would hurt Taipei. That would, of course, affect US-China tensions, given Washington’s support for Taipei.

This tension will also extend to various issues concerned with US-China relations, including mutual trade, Chinese disputes with Southeast Asian countries in the South China Sea, and growing US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific region. Washington will work to strengthen its alliances with Southeast Asian countries and India in order to contain China and postpone any armed confrontation with China in Taiwan.

3. Returning debate over foreign election interference: Given the importance of the elections scheduled for 2024, and their intersection with the interests and approaches of many countries, as well as with conflict maps, it is possible that the political debate in countries with elections will return to accusing foreign countries of interfering in those elections and attempting to influence their results.

This situation may recur in the US, especially if Donald Trump wins the race, given American accusations of Russian interference on behalf of Trump and against the Democratic Party candidates, Hilary Clinton and Joe Biden, in 2016 and 2018, and the US intelligence reports accusing Russia of trying to undermine popular confidence in elections throughout the world.

On the other hand, on 15 December 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of foreign interference in Russia’s internal affairs, especially during Russia’s presidential election campaign. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also announced that the Russian Federal Security Service was closely tracking possible US attempts to interfere in the Russian presidential elections.

Furthermore, if Kyiv holds its elections, Russia and the US are expected to intervene there to shape the upcoming landscape in the country. The situation is not much different in Taiwan, where, in November 2023, the Secretary-General of the National Security Council, Wellington Koo, accused China of trying to influence voters in Taiwan to defeat the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in the upcoming presidential elections.

4. Growing instability in some Asian and African countries: Elections in some countries may exacerbate the state of political instability, especially if these elections are accompanied by political conflicts. Perhaps the most important examples of this are found in several Asian and African countries. For example, the legislative elections in Bangladesh, held on 7 January 2024, were accompanied by sharp disagreements between the regime and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the country’s largest opposition party, which boycotted the elections, with party leaders calling them a farce. The matter did not stop there, as the elections were also accompanied by acts of violence, such as the burning of polling places.

This trend will also apply to African countries. For example, the presidential elections in Senegal are being held amid a conflict that has been raging for months between Senegalese President Macky Sall and the opposition forces led by Ousmane Sonko, who led street demonstrations against the president to prevent him from running for a third term. Although Sall announced that he would not run, the elections remain a matter of serious concern amid a major mobilization by the opposition to defeat the ruling United in Hope (Benno Bokk Yaakaar) coalition and its candidate, current Prime Minister Amadou Ba.

5. Possible effect on political stability in the US: The US presidential elections are considered the most important elections of 2024, given their many international repercussions. An intense competition among the candidates began last year, with current President Joe Biden announcing his candidacy for the Democratic Party, amid accusations of corruption against him and his son. These accusations prompted the Republican majority in the US House of Representatives to demand the initiation of procedures to remove Biden from office, amid his declining popularity and doubts about his ability to win re-election.

Former President Donald Trump is seeking the Republican Party nomination, but he is facing numerous difficulties, including an investigation into his involvement in the storming of the Capitol in January of 2021. Those events prompted two states, Maine and Colorado, to issue decisions disqualifying him from running in their state Republican primaries, and more US states are expected to issue similar decisions, amid fears of security chaos if a decision is made to permanently prevent Trump from running, which will prolong the uncertainty about the Republican candidate in the upcoming elections.

From this perspective, the elections will lead to a potential threat to US political stability. A Biden win will not be easy according to the Republicans, who are already pressuring Biden and working to weaken his foreign decisions. Furthermore, the age factor and the narrative that Biden is ill are sowing ambiguity about the future of the US presidency. There would be similar chaos if Trump is re-elected, with fears of a clash between Trump and some state institutions, not to mention popular sectors’ rejection of Trump based on his first term.

6. Further ambiguity regarding the course of the Ukraine war: Putin is certain to win the upcoming Russian presidential elections, and he is expected to continue his current political approach based on "national populism" to mobilize his supporters. He will also continue his confrontation with the West in his war in Ukraine, strengthen his alliance with China and the so-called "Russian-sphere" countries, seek to build new alliances with Eastern European and African countries, engage in Middle Eastern issues to preserve his vital interests in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean, and support the Palestinian cause to promote his competition with Washington.

These variables are likely to add tremendous complications and ambiguity to the war in Ukraine, particularly since Putin remains steadfast in achieving victory there. This is reinforced by the fact that Western countries will be more preoccupied by domestic issues and political disputes in 2024, which will have a negative impact on Western aid to Kyiv.

7. Stronger transnational right-wing alliances in Europe: The year 2024 is likely to see expanded transnational right-wing alliances in Europe. After the remarkable rise of far-right parties in several European countries during the elections of both 2022 and 2023, many look upon the planned 2024 European parliamentary elections with concern about the impact of the rising influence of right-wing parties in European countries on the composition of the European Parliament itself—with some recent opinion polls indicating that far-right parties are likely to control nearly 25% of the European Parliament. Indeed, at the European domestic level, polls project strong results for far-right parties in the 2024 elections in some European countries, such as Austria and Romania.

The rise of far-right representation in the European Parliament will pose challenges for European policies, especially vis-à-vis immigration, regional integration, and the limits of the role of the EU, given the skepticism of many of those forces toward the Parliament. This indicates that 2024 may push toward an ongoing rise of the far right in Europe and the variables occurring on the map of European elites.

8. Terrorists’ exploitation of election events: Elections may represent an opportunity for some terrorist organizations to increase their presence and threaten internal security and stability. This feature may be present in some African countries, particularly in the African Sahel countries that are holding elections in 2024. This is evident in Pakistan, where the pace of violent acts and terrorist operations is accelerating as the date of the general elections approaches and there are fears about the effect of those operations on the ability to hold elections in some regions, especially those adjacent to the Afghan border. There are other concerns about the effect of the electoral results on Pakistan’s political stability and security and the possibility that the results will present new opportunities for terrorist groups to intensify their terrorist operations, in light of the growing political polarization in Pakistan.

9. Declining effectiveness of Western pressure on regimes in Asia and Africa: For decades, elections in some African and Asian countries have been the subject of great interest on the part of Western countries, which have exerted pressure on regimes regarding election processes and procedures. However, it appears that the 2024 elections will be different, as the regimes—such as those in post-coup African countries that are holding elections this year—are now exploiting the growing international competition between the Western powers, led by Washington, and Russia and China to serve their interests and undercut Western pressure. Likewise, this pattern appears in some Asian countries, such as Bangladesh, which has been pressured by Washington in recent months to hold free and fair elections by Western standards.

10. Ongoing course of conflict between India and China: India’s 2024 parliamentary elections will likely lead to the re-election of current Prime Minister Narendra Modi, from the Bharatiya Janata Party, to a third term. Modi remains very popular, which means the continuation of his agenda of clash and competition with China. During his time in office, Modi has worked to develop his relationship and partnership with Washington despite his lack of full agreement with the US position on the Ukraine war, and he is unlikely to retreat from this situation if he wins the elections, especially since regional and international circumstances may complicate his calculations. The elections in Taiwan may escalate tensions between China and the West, and New Delhi will have to take a position. At the level of the US elections, Trump’s possible return to the White House may push the conflict between Beijing and Washington to new levels. Moreover, India still aspires to attract foreign investment away from China.

Intensive Follow-up

In conclusion, many countries will go to the polls in 2024. Estimates indicate that the countries that will hold elections this year—regardless of their level and type—have a total population of more than 4 billion people. In other words, more than half of the world’s population will have new political leaders and representatives at various levels and types of political representation, whether the elections are presidential, parliamentary, local, or even supranational.

While the 2024 elections will be a major and pivotal part of the agenda of media coverage and political follow-up, some elections will be the main focus due to their growing importance and widening influence. For example, the legislative and presidential elections in the US, Russia, Ukraine, and Taiwan are particularly important for global stability, developments in the ongoing Ukrainian conflict, and the future of the potential Taiwanese conflict. The Indian elections will also be significant since New Delhi is one of the most important rising powers in the international order. Likewise, the European Parliament elections will garner major interest and follow-up, especially from the perspective of monitoring the number of seats the right, specifically the far right, will gain.

How Will the 2024 Elections Affect the Global Political Landscape?