Dr. Mohammad Salami‏‏

Three regional groups of actors have become involved in the South Caucasus crisis: the Middle East (Turkey and Iran), the Caucasus (Armenia and Azerbaijan), and peace mediators (Europe, the US, and Russia). The Nagorno-Karabakh war has killed and wounded hundreds of people and displaced thousands. Although the international community, especially the US, is seeking an end to the crisis, Washington seems to be caught between moral values and pragmatic geopolitical realities.The territorial dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh has been ongoing since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It erupted into a military conflict between the two countries in the 1990s, which led to Yerevan’s occupation of the region. In September 2020, Baku <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/nearly-3-years-pass-since-azerbaijans-2nd-karabakh-war-victory/3002425" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">launched</a> a 44-day offensive backed by Turkey and recaptured much of the territory. This ended with Russia mediation and deployment of Russian peacekeepers, but Moscow was unable to fully establish peace.Last September, Azerbaijan <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/19/azerbaijan-forces-attack-nagorno-karabakh-as-threat-of-new-war-looms" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">carried out</a> its most recent attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, and hundreds of Armenians fled the region. Yerevan <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-us-pledge/32613813.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">called</a> this an "ethnic cleansing," particularly in light of food scarcity and other elements of the crisis.The US response to this three-year war has had no concrete results. The US has made some diplomatic efforts and called for relevant parties to adhere to international humanitarian law.&nbsp;However, the Caucasus has not been a US foreign policy <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/29/armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-russia-usa-great-power-influence/#cookie_message_anchor" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">priority</a> to the same extent as the Middle East, Europe, or Oceania since there is less wealth and power concentrated in the former region. Although Azerbaijan and Armenia do not have hostile relations with Washington, neither are formal treaty allies with the US like India, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, or Japan are.The US has sought to pursue its commitment to liberalism, freedom, human rights, and rule-based order through asking Baku to pursue a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. However, the latter has not taken the US seriously. In the most recent US attempt to mitigate the crisis, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien <a href="https://turan.az/en/politics/no-chance-of-business-as-usual-with-azerbaijan-as-long-as-peace-agreement-james-obrien-tells-lawmakers-774406" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">called</a> the September military operation unilateral. During a hearing before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, O’Brien said that until a peace agreement was reached between Baku and Yerevan, there was "no chance of business as usual" with Azerbaijan.There is a strong Armenian community in the US with significant lobbying power. In 1992, during the Azerbaijan-Armenia war, the Armenian lobby managed to get Section 907 into the text of the Freedom Support Act. According to this section, Azerbaijan could not <a href="https://www.nkr.am/en/documents/section-907-of-us-freedom-support-act" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">receive</a> direct aid or support from the US. However, Section 907 has since been forgotten given geopolitical realities and US national security interests.Section 907 was implemented until the 9/11 attacks during the presidency of George W. Bush. After the attacks, Bush went to Congress and asked to <a href="https://mirrorspectator.com/2023/08/31/what-is-going-on-with-section-907/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">waive</a> the clause so that US forces could use Azerbaijan as a launching point for the war in Afghanistan. This led to broader energy, military, and security partnerships between Washington and Baku. Since 2002, most US presidents have used this right to waive Section 907.There are several reasons why the US cannot or does not want to act decisively in response to these attacks. Although the attacks clearly violate the rights of Armenians in the occupied territories, the US is more concerned with energy cooperation, geopolitical realities, and international rivalries.In light of the Ukraine war and the European Union’s decision to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by 45 percent, the EU <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-signs-deal-with-azerbaijan-double-gas-imports-by-2027-2022-07-18/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">decided</a> to increase its imports from Azerbaijan from 8 billion cubic meters (bcm) to around 20 bcm by 2027 in an agreement signed on 18 July 2022.Until 2007, Greece was the <a href="https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/europe-turns-azerbaijan-gas-how-big-could-be" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">only European buyer</a> of Azerbaijani natural gas. Since the establishment of the Southern Gas Corridor in 2011, European gas imports from Azerbaijan have increased. The US is the security guarantor for the EU’s gas supply and strongly supports this agreement. Israel also sources up to 40 percent of its oil from Azerbaijan.Many Western energy companies are very interested in Azerbaijani gas projects. The British energy giant BP <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/why-volatile-south-caucasus-is-important-oil-gas-supplies-2023-09-22/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">is operating</a> two major gas projects in Azerbaijan on behalf of a consortium of energy companies. BP has about 2,400 employees in the Caucasus and is also developing the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which has a capacity of 1.2 million barrels per day, or more than 1 percent of the world’s oil supply. The Norwegian company Equinor, French TotalEnergies, and ExxonMobil also have shares in Azerbaijan’s energy fields.Azerbaijan and the US have <a href="https://washington.mfa.gov.az/en/content/168/azerbaijan-and-the-united-states-partners-in-peace" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">cooperated</a> on joint defense and anti-terrorism, including by combating the spread of nuclear weapons and drug trafficking, and improving security in the wider Caspian region and beyond.At various junctures over the years, the Azerbaijani military has supported US efforts in Iraq and the Balkans. Airports in Azerbaijan were conveniently positioned for US and NATO flights to support the&nbsp;International Security Assistance Force&nbsp;(ISAF) in Afghanistan. The Azerbaijani military has also developed a productive State Partnership program with the Oklahoma National Guard.Geopolitically, Azerbaijan is a part of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor. This route <a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/middle-corridor-policy-development-trade-potential" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">connects</a> the EU and China by rail and road and transports 600 billion euros annually in bilateral trade through Central Asia and the South Caucasus.The West sees the Middle Corridor as an alternative to the Northern Corridor since the former is further from the influence of Russia and Belarus. The Middle Corridor is also a more economical trade route between <a href="https://www.mfa.gov.tr/turkey_s-multilateral-transportation-policy.en.mfa#:~:text=The%20Middle%20Corridor%20is%20more,compared%20to%20the%20sea%20route." rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Europe and Asia</a>, since it is 2,000 km shorter, has more favorable climate conditions, and shortens the travel time by one third (15 days) compared to the Norther Corridor’s sea route.Finally, Washington hopes to use Azerbaijan to put pressure on rivals such as Iran and Russia. After the Ukraine war, Moscow will seek to strengthen its presence in the South Caucasus, which has been an area of lesser focus due to the Ukraine crisis.Armenia has been an ally of Moscow but since being deeply <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90768" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">offended</a> by Russian inaction in the crisis, it might turn to the West. The recent <a href="https://apnews.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-american-troops-drills-nagorno-karabakh-9bf6319025029ec1a68e19412508f37e" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">joint US-Armenian military exercises</a> and Yerevan’s decision to <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231003-armenia-ratifies-icc-founding-treaty-angering-russia" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">join</a> the International Criminal Court suggest that such a partnership is&nbsp;not far-fetched given Moscow’s activities in the South Caucasus.There have been tensions between Azerbaijan and its southern neighbor Iran over the Zangezur corridor, relations with Israel, military exercises near their shared border, and the possible <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/irans-drone-exports-to-armenia-could-undermine-peace-process-in-karabakh/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">sale</a> of combat drones to Yerevan. The US welcomes this distance between Azerbaijan and Iran. In 2018-19, Washington <a href="https://armenian.usc.edu/us-allocates-100-million-in-security-aid-to-azerbaijan/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">provided</a> more than 100 million dollars in military aid to Baku to counter threats from Tehran. This aid to strengthen the Azerbaijani naval forces and coast guard in the oil- and gas-rich Caspian Sea exceeded US <a href="https://eurasianet.org/amid-iran-crisis-us-offers-big-military-aid-boost-to-azerbaijan" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">aid</a> to Georgia, the most loyal and visible US partner in the region.&nbsp;The Caspian Sea is seen as particularly <a href="https://eurasianet.org/amid-iran-crisis-us-offers-big-military-aid-boost-to-azerbaijan" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">strategically sensitive</a> because it borders Iran, and the US has long worked quietly to help Azerbaijan counter the significantly stronger Iranian military presence in the Caspian.The Nagorno-Karabakh crisis has been a litmus test for the US on whether it can balance moral and humanitarian values with geopolitical and security interests. Three years of US diplomatic activities in the Nagorno-Karabakh region have demonstrated that Washington needs Azerbaijan more than Armenia to develop a stronger presence in the Caucasus region. The US is focused on deterring Baku from turning towards Russia and therefore has not decisively condemned Azerbaijan despite nominal effort to encourage peace.Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article solely represent the author and do not reflect the views of InterRegional for Strategic Analysis.

How the US is Responding to the Crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh