Dr. Ahmed Abdel Aleem Hassan‏‏

In early September 2024, the Defense Science Board (DSB), a federal advisory committee providing independent consulting to the U.S. Department of Defense, recommended that the Pentagon develop and implement strategies to counter global crises and emerging conflicts driven by climate change. According to the report issued by the board, climate change could reshape defense and security affairs across different regions of the world. This necessitates the development of agile and effective strategies by nations to mitigate its effects, losses, and potential challenges.Operational ThreatsClimate change can impact defense affairs across various regions of the world in the following ways:&nbsp;1- Destruction of the Military Infrastructure: Many military bases are located in coastal areas, making them vulnerable to destruction due to rising sea levels. Additionally, the increase in storms and hurricanes can affect military facilities and critical installations, such as airports and other assets.According to estimates by the U.S. Department of Defense, about nine major American military bases are at risk of flooding due to rising sea levels. Among them the Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia; the largest naval base in the world, which faces increasing threats of submersion. Additionally, severe flooding that struck Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska in 2019 caused approximately $1 billion in damages, affecting 137 military facilities and significantly hindering operations.2- Disruption of Military Supply Chains: Climate change and its adverse effects such as damage to roads, bridges, and ports due to natural disasters, can prevent the armed forces from ensuring the seamless delivery of supplies and equipment. Additionally, extreme weather can lead to shortages of essential resources like water, food, and even fuel in military zones, creating logistical challenges that undermine sustained military operations globally.China faces a significant threat in this regard, as its coastal military bases, particularly those in the South China Sea, are vulnerable to damage. China conducts extensive maritime operations and manages multiple naval bases on artificial islands. Disruptions to military supply chains could undermine the effectiveness of China’s military activities at large.3- Disruption in Advanced Defense Technology Production:&nbsp;Climate change is likely to have widespread negative repercussions on defense technology production due to disruptions in industrial supply chains. Such disruptions affect the production and supply of rare earth metals and the shipping of sensitive technological components from various locations, collectively impacting the modernization of defense systems and the innovation of new advanced-technology equipment. Notably, floods hitting industrial regions, such as Southeast Asia, lead to the shutdown of factories producing advanced defense equipment like communication systems and drone control devices.4- Large-Scale Damage to Weapons and Military Equipment:&nbsp;Extreme weather necessitates redesigning weapons and military equipment to adapt to new combat environments, whether facing extreme heat or cold. The September 2024 report by the U.S. Defense Science Board revealed that the Arctic will likely become a contested zone for resources amid escalating tensions between major powers, potentially turning into an open battlefield, particularly among the U.S., China, and Russia.Additionally, extreme environmental conditions can degrade equipment performance of conventional armies in warfare. For instance, electronics and sensors are highly sensitive to temperature fluctuations, increasing the risk of malfunctions. Changing weather patterns, such as intensified storms or severe conditions, can also disrupt satellite and radio communications, compromising critical systems such as GPS, radar, and satellite communications.5- Challenges in Conducting Multinational Military Exercises:&nbsp;Extreme weather can create logistical and strategic difficulties that negatively impact military training, whether by disrupting operations, reducing training effectiveness, or damaging equipment and affecting personnel. Floods, storms, and wildfires with frequent occurrences in countries like the U.S., China, Russia, and several European nations, can significantly disrupt military exercises. This is particularly evident in aerial operations, such as the deployment of aircraft and drones, while also disrupting air support and complicating rescue missions.6- Compromising Military Plans in Conflict Zones:&nbsp;Developing military strategies without accounting for extreme weather impacts can lead to a catastrophic defeat, as climatic factors directly affect troop performance, mobility, and resource availability. Harsh environments demand adaptable tactics and flexible strategies. This was starkly evident in the Russia-Ukraine war: torrential rains in Ukraine turned terrain into mud, immobilizing heavy military vehicles and stalling Russia’s advance in key areas. Similarly, freezing temperatures disrupted operations for both sides, impairing soldiers, delaying supplies, and even damaging critical equipment.Response MechanismsThe negative repercussions of climate change on national defense necessitate more adaptable policies to mitigate these challenges, as outlined below:1- Developing Early Warning Systems for Armed Forces:&nbsp;Given the growing threats posed by climate change to security and defense, it is critical to enhance data collection and analysis systems related to climatic shifts. This ensures militaries can accurately predict climate impacts on security and defense, including the development of early warning technologies and predictive systems to identify potential threats and enable rapid responses to climate disruptions. For instance, Germany’s Ministry of Defense proposes leveraging methods such as modeling and simulations to improve forecasting capabilities and preparedness for climate-induced threats and conflicts.2- Establishing Dedicated Climate Threat Assessment Units: The Defense Science Board has recommended that the U.S. Department of Defense establish a "Climate Planning Cell" to develop and integrate climate data with policy and strategic decision-making tools. This unit would focus on climate-informed mission planning, including assessing climate change impacts on adversaries. It would coordinate with various defense and national agencies, including the Air Force, Navy, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), National Space Agency, NASA, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to consolidate global sensor network data. These collective efforts aim to annually update climate-related defense threats for presentation to military and political leadership.3- Enhancing Investment in Defense R&amp;D: It is imperative for militaries to increase investments in research and development to address climate-related threats and their impacts on military operations. This includes developing weapons and equipment better adapted to extreme heat or cold to minimize failure risks, while simultaneously improving the resilience of military infrastructure. Additionally, adopting sustainable technologies will be crucial to enhancing the effectiveness of future defense systems.4- Training Soldiers for Climate Adaptation: Effective defense planning must account or climate impacts on future military operations, with personnel readiness being the critical factor. Militaries must prioritize training programs that equip soldiers with skills to handle climate-related challenges. Such training should address the effects of climate change and build adaptive response capabilities, complemented by realistic field exercises to validate troop preparedness for extreme environments, when experiencing both extreme temperatures and natural disasters.5- Expanding Multilateral Defense Cooperation:&nbsp;Climate change represents a global threat requiring coordinated international responses. Militaries must strengthen multilateral partnerships with allied nations and institutions, including the United Nations, European Union, and NATO, to develop integrated defense strategies against transboundary climate threats. This cooperation should facilitate knowledge-sharing, joint technology development, and collaborative solutions to mitigate climate-related security challenges.In conclusion, time remains a critical determinant of how well armed forces can address climate-related threats.&nbsp;Proactive preparedness and early warning systems to confront these growing national and international security risks will prove decisive in shaping how conventional armed forces overcome diverse climate-linked threats in both near- and medium-term futures.

How Can Extreme Weather Challenge Military Readiness?