InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

While cultural and social diversity has been a source of strength for Europe, the continent has recently begun to see a noticeable rise in racist rhetoric. This appears in various forms, such as the major political and electoral gains made by far-right movements and parties in several countries, as well as escalating hate speech, discriminatory policies, and violent acts, especially in countries like Germany, Italy, the UK, and France. This multi-faceted phenomenon is influenced by a combination of historical, economic, political, and social factors.Key FeaturesThe growing threats of racism in European countries are tied to a number of key features, including the following:1. Growing xenophobic rhetoric: Nigel Farage, the former leader of the xenophobic UKIP party, has returned to the political scene in the UK with the establishment of a new political party called Reform UK. According to the most recent opinion polls on the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2024, this party is close to surpassing the Liberal Democrats to become the third political power in the UK, after the Labour Party and the Conservatives, with 10% of respondents intending to vote for it.Recently, Finnish government ministers from the True Finns Party were accused of publishing xenophobic comments before they became part of the ruling coalition. For example, party leader and Minister of Finance Riikka Purra published extremely racist comments in 2008, including references to beating black children in Helsinki and using weapons against immigrant youth. Likewise, Minister of Interior Mari&nbsp;Rantanen was criticized for posting about the Great Replacement theory on social media. The Dutch Freedom Party has also made xenophobic overtones a hallmark of its political rhetoric. After winning the elections, the party leader, Geert Wilders, declared that the Dutch people hope to restore their country by limiting asylum seekers and immigration, saying that a difficult period has begun for Muslims in the Netherlands.2. Rise of far-right movements: The year 2023 saw the rise of far-right forces in many European countries, a trend that had been observed in 2022, in Italy and Hungary. In the Netherlands, the Freedom Party won the parliamentary elections on November 22, 2023, gaining 37 of 150 seats, and its leader, Geert Wilders, may become the head of the Dutch government.In Finland, the nationalist True Finns Party won 20.1% of the vote in the parliamentary elections. In Bulgaria, the pro-Russian Revival party (Vazrajdane) became the third political power in the country after receiving more than 14% of the vote in April 2023. Meanwhile, in Greece, three far-right parties achieved a collective breakthrough by getting more than 12% of the vote in the parliamentary elections.Slovakia also saw in increase in the popularity of the nationalist SNS party, from 3.16% in 2020, to 5.63% in 2023, a result that allowed the party to enter the coalition that propelled the populist, Robert Fico, to power. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party expanded its presence by coming in second in the regional elections held in October 2023, in Bavaria and Hesse.The&nbsp;Austrian Freedom Party&nbsp;(FPÖ), led by Herbert Kickl, has also risen. At the outset of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, the party adopted a pro-Russian discourse that opposed the European sanctions on Moscow. It also criticized environmental activists and governmental measures to reduce CO2 emissions and combat climate change, describing such measures as part of the framework of "eco-communism." And we must not forget the historic breakthrough of the National Rally Party in France, which won 89 seats in the parliamentary elections of 2022, while its leader, Marine Le Pen, obtained 41.5% of the vote in the second round of the French presidential elections.3. Fueling of anti-immigrant sentiment: In November 2023, some estimates indicated that only 17% of Ukrainian refugees in Germany had paid work, compared to 66% in Poland and 70% in the Netherlands. The far right in Germany contends that the generous financial allowances granted to refugees prompt them to depend on these allowances rather than seek employment. Immigrant participation in pro-Palestinian demonstrations in Germany has also raised internal fears about the success of the integration process among certain groups within German society. Immigration fears have propelled the rapid rise of the far right in Germany in recent months, with Alternative for Germany polling at 22% of likely voters—an increase of 10 points over the 2021 elections. This rise was also evident in the results of the regional elections held on October 8, 2023, where Alternative for Germany obtained historically high support of 18.4% in Hesse and 14.6% in Bavaria.In the same vein, an opinion poll conducted in September 2023, in ten European countries, showed that 50% of French people oppose the legal immigration of non-Europeans to the EU. According to this poll, the French are the least favorable to legal immigration of non-Europeans to the EU, with 12% of French respondents saying that they "totally support" it and 29% that they "somewhat support" it, while 30% "somewhat oppose" it, 20% "totally oppose" it, and 9% declined to comment. It is also noteworthy that Austria’s Freedom Party recently released a propaganda video on its platforms showing the burning of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris and riots in French suburbs, with a message written at the end of the video saying, "We are Austria’s last chance."4. Advancing populist nationalism: Clearly, some of the traditional political forces in Europe have declined, and there is a greater tendency toward new divisions and affiliations. Social media has contributed to further consolidating these divisions, with these networks close to replacing the customary bodies on the overall political scene that mediate between citizens and the state. Perhaps the greatest example of this is the Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) movement in 2019, in France, wherein a wide segment of voters moved away from traditional parties and surrendered themselves to populist rhetoric.Although some classical European political parties have collapsed (e.g., the Socialist Party in France) or are facing difficulties, it is striking that their ideas and positions are adopted by the populist parties as soon as they attain power. For example, Marine Le Pen changed her position on the French withdrawal from the EU (Frexit), Giorgia Meloni changed her position vis-à-vis Russia and NATO, and, on the eve of his victory in the Dutch elections, Geert Wilders stated that parties that want to implement their program can never govern.5. Spread of discriminatory behaviors: On October 25, 2023, the European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA) published a report on racial discrimination in 13 European countries. According to the report, racist behavior has increased since the previous report was published in 2016. Nearly half of the black people surveyed stated that they face racism in their daily lives. In particular, the report’s results show that this number increased to 76% in Austria, 66% in Finland, and 77% in Germany. Such racial discrimination has increased more in schools, the workplace, and when seeking housing or employment.6. Rising hate crimes: German police figures have recorded an increase in anti-Semitic acts in Germany, with 540 crimes committed in the third quarter of 2023, compared to 306 crimes during the same period of the previous year. On November 14, 2023, French Minister of Interior Gérald&nbsp;Darmanin announced that 1,518 anti-Semitic acts or statements had been recorded since October 7, 2023, compared to 436 in 2022. The previous annual record was 974, set in 2004. Signs, posters, and banners made up 50% of the incidents recorded in France, threats and verbal abuse accounted for 22%, incitement to terrorism accounted for 10%, vandalism accounted for 8%, and assault and battery accounted for 2%.Main DriversTo study the drivers increasing this phenomenon, we draw attention to the following factors:1. Political exploitation of public concern: All the opinion polls around the upcoming parliamentary elections in Austria in October 2024, put the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) in the lead with about 30% support. Some experts attribute Herbert Kickl’s success in carrying his party to first place among likely voters to his ability to use political rhetoric that focuses on the topic of immigration—indeed, to portray his party’s struggle as a battle for freedom against oppression and injustice in a way that connects with the issues most Austrians are now feeling. For example, inflation in Austria is among the highest in the EU (Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Austria had the highest rates of inflation in the Eurozone in 2023).2. Economic repercussions of the war in Ukraine: In her presidential campaign in France in 2022, Marine Le Pen focused on domestic social and economic issues, and she succeeded in exploiting issues related to the war in Ukraine—such as rising energy prices and declining &nbsp;purchasing power for the French people. Her presidential platform revolved around a generous redistribution of income consisting of reducing the value-added tax, increasing wages and pensions, tax exemptions, and free transportation for young workers. Le Pen clearly succeeded in playing upon the economic fears of many French people, especially among the poor social classes most affected by the economic repercussions of the war in Ukraine. This was particularly so in rural areas where several opinion polls showed that many French voters considered cost of living and purchasing power to be important factors in determining their vote.The 2022 parliamentary elections in France also reflected the shift to a new phase of "de-demonization" of the National Rally Party, with the collapse of the Republican Front bloc, which typically consisted of an alliance of all parties of all stripes to combat the National Rally whenever it was likely to win a decisive round or run-off. National Rally was able to win 89 seats in 2022. Likewise, the leaders of Alternative for Germany focused on rejecting any form of German intervention in the war in Ukraine and called on the government to restore cheap Russian natural gas supplies to protect the German economy. Party leaders also focused on the arrival in Germany of more than a million refugees from Ukraine and the rising cost of living—the highest in the country since the 1970s.3. Heightened fear of changing cultural identity: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni defends Italian cultural identity by proposing bills to promote national identity, defend the traditional family, protect cultural heritage, and prohibit the arrival of immigrants. In her political rhetoric, Meloni habitually compares the arrival of immigrants in Italy to the forced deportation of some residents of the old Soviet Union, with the goal of weakening local customs and religions. She declares that her party wants to preserve Italy’s deep-rooted identity, which the Left wants to eliminate, and warns of the dangers of "ethnic replacement" and the dilution of Christian culture in Europe. Italian opinion polls indicate that voters widely support the government’s actions, with Meloni’s party receiving 29% support in the latest polls—larger than the percentage the party received when it won the elections in October 2022.4. Influence of media and social media campaigns: In 2021, in Austria, activists connected to neo-Nazi circles created an online TV channel called AUF 1, which quickly became one of the most important bastions of the far right. The channel took advantage of the strong skepticism about the COVID-19 vaccinations seen in some European communities to gain an audience and introduce topics favorable to the channel’s political orientations, such as anti-immigration and intimidation of minorities.In France, Popular Front (Front Populaire), a magazine associated with the French philosopher and intellectual, Michel Onfray, published a special issue in March 2023, on "Tyranny of minorities: the art of destroying France" ("La tyrannie des minorités: l’art de détruire la France"). In Ireland, riots broke out on November 23, 2023—in which police cars, trams, and buses were set fire in connection with a knife attack on a woman and three children—after a rumor spread on social media that the attacker was of foreign origin. Ireland’s National Party mobilized on the X platform (formerly Twitter), calling those fed up with the sight of Irish children being stabbed to rise up and fight back.A recent opinion poll taken in nine European countries also showed that two-thirds of Europeans overstate the reality as a result of media propaganda that exaggerates the issue of immigration to the European continent. The poll asked about the number of legal migrants to Europe in 2022, which totaled two million people; however, fewer than 3 in 10 respondents answered correctly, and a large segment of them had no idea of the answer.5. Attacks against EU policies: Some EU policies, such as the European Green Deal and decarbonization, have come under strong attack. Over the course of two years, European governments have adopted 32 laws, such as ending the use of combustion engines by the year 2035, imposing a carbon tax to allow the reduction of CO2 emissions by 55% by the year 2030, compared to 1990 levels, and putting EU nations on the path to carbon neutrality by the year 2050.Some Central and Eastern European countries, such as Poland and Hungary, have expressed their hesitancy over these measures on the grounds that they cannot keep up with their partners in Western Europe. French President Emmanuel Macron was one of the first leaders of an EU country to bear the consequences of proactive climate policy when the Yellow Vests crisis blew up in his face. Many European leaders fear that they might also be forced to face an uprising like the Yellow Vests, particularly since the Netherlands saw farmers’ revolts in 2022, against European environmental measures. The Alternative for Germany party also made the struggle against these measures one of its primary goals.6. Playing on security concerns: The far right in the Netherlands was also able to capitalize on growing popular resentment of the acts of violence and intimidation by the Mafia there, especially the so-called "Mocro Mafia," which controls the drug trade and organized crime. The power of this branch of the Mafia extended to threatening former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the king’s daughter, Princess Amalia. Geert Wilders did not hesitate to describe the immigrants from whom some members of this mafia descend as "scum" who are preparing for an Islamic invasion. 7. Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: With the goal of fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, European governments temporarily closed their national borders, a step that garnered the support of popular and far-right nationalist forces, which have long sought to achieve this goal, but permanently. Accordingly, these forces took advantage of these governmental measures to try to illustrate that opening the borders can only bring more problems, whether through immigration or the arrival of epidemics.Furthermore, these same forces have ridden the wave of citizen outrage at government lockdowns and immunization campaigns and led protests against the authorities. There are clear signs of increasing racial hostility due to the COVID-19 crisis. Many acts of violence against foreigners were recorded during the epidemic, with some of them being attacked with disinfectants on the basis of race.The far right has also lead campaigns against population groups for being guilty of bringing the epidemic with them or for receiving preferential treatment from the state. An opinion poll in the Czech Republic showed that the COVID-19 crisis strengthened hostile attitudes toward foreigners; and some polls in Spain showed a willingness to sacrifice basic civil liberties and support authoritarian measures in order to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some observers have warned that the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to the erosion of democratic principles and the acceptance of an authoritarian shift, as happened in Poland and Hungary, where the two countries’ governments used the pandemic to inflate their powers. &nbsp;In short, the ongoing rise in racist rhetoric will have major repercussions, especially in terms of increasing polarization within European societies, internal divisions, and instability. It will also erode confidence in the European unity project and affect the reputation of the European continent as an international leader that defends the values of equality and democracy.

Understanding the Escalation of Racist Rhetoric in Europe