InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

The recent war pitting the United States and Israel against Iran has not yet come to a definitive end. Ongoing negotiations between Tehran and Washington, mediated by Pakistan, have so far failed to yield any progress that would likely lead to a permanent ceasefire agreement.In effect, this means that the future of the Islamic Republic remains uncertain, particularly given the scale of the military strikes Iran endured between February 28 and the announcement of a temporary ceasefire on April 8, 2026—strikes that inflicted substantial losses across military, security, political, and economic domains.If the Iranian regime remains in power after the war, it will most likely promote a narrative portraying its survival and the avoidance of state collapse as a "victory" over the United States and Israel, regardless of the magnitude of its losses. However, this does not negate the fact that it will face a series of difficult tests in the post-war phase. The most prominent of these challenges can be outlined as follows:Multiple Challenges1. Diverging Positions Within Decision-Making Circles: The war’s immediate aftermath has exposed noticeable inconsistencies in the positions adopted by Iran’s decision-making institutions. This was evident when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on April 18, 2026, the <a href="https://www.mc-doualiya.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7/20260418-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%A5%D8%BA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%B6%D9%8A%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D9%85%D8%AC%D8%AF%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%83-%D8%AA%D8%AC%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%B9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reclosure of the Strait of Hormuz</a>—just one day after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the waterway <a href="https://www.france24.com/ar/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7/20260417-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D9%81%D8%AA%D8%AD-%D9%85%D8%B6%D9%8A%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%84-%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81-%D8%A5%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">open</a> to commercial shipping following a 10-day ceasefire agreement on the Lebanese front.This contradiction reflects a deeper structural issue: U.S. and Israeli strikes appear to have created institutional gaps that the Iranian leadership has failed to address thus far. This is particularly evident in the position of the Supreme Leader, which remains the subject of intense debate due to uncertainty surrounding the status of Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father following his assassination on February 28, 2026.To date, the new Supreme Leader has not appeared publicly or even issued an audio message, raising questions about his health and his capacity to fill the leadership vacuum left by his predecessor, who wielded significant influence within Iran’s political system due to his revolutionary credentials and prior executive experience as president before assuming the office of Supreme Leader after the death of Ruhollah Khomeini.This situation may not only weaken the Supreme Leader’s position but could also intensify competition for influence among powerful regime institutions, particularly within the military establishment—namely the IRGC, the regular army, and Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters.2. Growing International and Regional Isolation: Iran may face increasing regional and international isolation as a result of its wartime policies and conduct. During the conflict, Tehran launched attacks against Gulf states that had historically sought stable relations based on principles of good neighborliness and non-interference. These states had also made sustained efforts to shield both Iran and the region from the consequences of the war.Iran further targeted the interests of multiple countries, including Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Cyprus, France, and United Kingdom.In addition, Iranian threats to maritime trade in the Strait of Hormuz are likely to have lasting repercussions for its relations with major global and regional powers whose economic interests were affected. This includes China, which may seek to diversify away from Iranian oil imports to avoid exposure to persistent geopolitical risks—especially given doubts about Iran’s ability to uphold serious international commitments.3. Underlying Drivers for Renewed Protest: While large-scale protests did not erupt during the war period (from February 28, 2026, onward), the underlying drivers of unrest remain firmly in place and could resurface after the conflict.The exceptional wartime conditions appear to have temporarily restrained public mobilization. However, once these conditions subside, the factors that fueled previous waves of protest—most recently the demonstrations that took place between December 18, 2025, and January 15, 2026—are likely to re-assert themselves.<a href="https://www.skynewsarabia.com/world/1864307-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%B2%D9%81-%D9%88%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Economic pressures</a> remain particularly acute. Annual inflation reached 50.6% in February 2026, while food inflation rose to 112% in March. At the same time, the national currency (the toman) has continued to depreciate sharply, with the U.S. dollar reaching approximately 156,000 tomans—further eroding purchasing power and intensifying social discontent.4. Escalating Consequences of Internal Displacement: The war has also had a significant humanitarian impact, most notably a surge in internal displacement. Large numbers of Iranians were forced to leave their homes due to the destruction caused by U.S. and Israeli strikes, relocating to safer areas.According to the UNHCR, as of March 12, 2026, the number of internally <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/ar/news/press-releases/unhcr-3-2-million-iranians-temporarily-displaced-iran-conflict-intensifies" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">displaced persons</a> in Iran had reached approximately 3.2 million—equivalent to somewhere between 600,000 and one million families—many of whom fled from Tehran and major cities and headed to rural areas.Such demographic shifts could have far-reaching social consequences in the post-war phase, potentially translating into political repercussions over time. Experiences elsewhere in the Middle East—such as the crisis in Syria from the outbreak of the 2011 uprising until the Assad regime’s fall in December 2024—underscore the profound impact that displacement crises can have on the trajectory of events.In conclusion, the end of the war will not necessarily relieve the other crises facing the Iranian regime. Rather, it is likely to usher in a new set of challenges that could have direct implications for the regime’s political survival.In this regard, it is notable that U.S. and Israeli strikes during the conflict targeted not only Iran’s military capabilities—including its missile and nuclear programs—but also hit internal security structures responsible for containing domestic unrest, particularly the Basij forces and other elements of the security apparatus.This aspect may prove decisive in shaping the regime’s ability to navigate the difficult post-war environment and respond to the multiple pressures it is expected to face.

Severe Tests Facing the Iranian Regime