Dr. Yasmin Calmet

Peru is among the countries in Latin America that have experienced a series of political developments that could threaten the stability of their democratic system. Over the past ten years, Peru has had six presidents, only two of whom were democratically elected, while three were impeached, and one was forced to resign due to popular pressure. The current situation in 2024 is no exception, as political instability seems to have become the norm in Peru. In the past two months, there have been allegations of illicit enrichment against President Boluarte and mass resignations of the ministers of education, the interior, agrarian development and irrigation, foreign trade and tourism, and women’s affairs. There have been violations of the constitution committed by both Congress and the judiciary, while the government also refused to release data on poverty rates.To understand how the political crisis in Peru has escalated to this point, it is essential to consider the factors that have legitimized or supported current political practices.First, Peru has a political class that is unprepared to govern and lacks a real understanding of the needs and demands of Peruvian citizens. Public policies prioritize the interests of certain economic groups over the public interest, which results in ineffective and often quickly-abandoned solutions to the central issues facing the country’s population. Without understanding the people’s needs or how to govern on their behalf, it will be challenging for the Peruvian government to establish any meaningful connection with the country’s citizens.At the same time, many politicians act opportunistically and exploit the people’s legitimate demands to increase their own visibility during elections. Some politicians adopt populist discourses and adopt either left- or right-wing agendas to garner votes. However, such approaches have generated misinformation, increased ethnic prejudice, and heightened polarization. For example, former President Castillo cast himself as a radical left-wing progressive but did not implement any significant leftist policies during his administration. Instead, he managed the country inefficiently and faced corruption allegations.Second, Peruvian politicians and citizens’ approach to democracy has created challenges. The political class projects limited democratic values with practices defined by clientelist, patriarchal, and authoritarian relationships. This is reflected in the nature of the relationship between the legislative and executive branches as well as a fragmented multi-party system with low political representation for each party.In Peru, the relationship between the executive and legislative branches is marked by an intense struggle for political control. This is exacerbated by a system that grants the president broad powers, including the ability to dissolve Congress. This can lead to catastrophic constitutional confrontations, in which both parties use their prerogatives to obstruct or overthrow each other, resulting in governance crises. Dual legitimacy, rigid mandates, and the personalization of power can encourage unconstitutional behaviors in conflicts between branches of government. The Congress frequently resorts to questionable tactics to shorten presidential terms, such as requesting vacancy due to moral incapacity, which is a risky measure because of its ambiguity. Additionally, dissolving Congress after it issues votes of no-confidence is another harmful practice. These interpretative dynamics between powers present serious threats to democratic stability.Low representation of political parties is another complicating factor. Political parties have transformed into a volatile and unstable set of improvised forces that lack strong political identities, have little experience, and suffer from significant fragmentation. The country has twelve parties in Congress, which are further internally divided. This prevents consensus and forces political negotiations via bargaining and blackmail.As a result, Peru has the highest levels of dissatisfaction with democracy and its institutions in Latin America. According to the 2024 Latinobarómetro, although 51 percent of Peruvians support democracy as better than any other form of government, only 19 percent are satisfied with democracy, and 7 percent trust their country’s political parties and Congress. Additionally, there is a high tolerance for coups, with 44 percent of Peruvians supporting a coup in case of corruption. This indicates an erosion of commitment to democratic values and principles. Finally, the dysfunctionality of Peru’s political institutions is also reflected in authoritarian policies ranging from a lack of accountability to violent repression of protesters. The Boluarte government recently prohibited the INEI (National Institute of Statistics and Informatics) from providing data to the public on poverty rates in the country. This led to media outcry and popular protests demanding the release of this data, which subsequently revealed that since 2019, over 18 million Peruvians have fallen from the middle class into economic vulnerability or poverty. Furthermore, the labor informality rate exceeds 80 percent, while poverty in urban areas has increased significantly (11 percent), although it remained almost stable in rural areas (-1 percent) and food insecurity rates have fallen slightly (0.7 percent).Due to political repression of protesters, two-thirds of Peruvians believe there is little freedom to express political opinions. There is little trust in the armed forces and police institutions, especially among indigenous groups and in the areas most affected by the violence perpetrated by these institutions.Peru’s current political crisis threatens both the health of the country’s fragile democracy and its political credibility on the international stage. Moreover, these events raise concerns about the potential postponement of presidential elections, possible impeachment, and the death of the rule of law and resurgence of an authoritarian state. If the political crisis in is not resolved, the consequences could be catastrophic. Potential repercussions could include a decline in private investor confidence, challenges for economic growth, and mass emigration (to countries that would then have to adjust their immigration laws). These challenges are caused by the precarity of employment and education and uncertainty about maintaining the democratic foundations that are essential for citizens to live with dignity.

What Are the Roots of Peru’s Political Instability?