Mohamed Fawzy‏‏

Syrian authorities, along with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), recently announced the complete <a href="https://www.skynewsarabia.com/middle-east/1854550-%D8%A5%D8%BA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%AE%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%A5%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%87-%D8%A2%D8%AE%D8%B1-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%87" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">closure</a> of Al-Hol camp in the countryside of Al-Hasakah. The move comes as part of a process led by the United States since early 2026 to transfer thousands of ISIS-affiliated fighters from Syrian territory to Iraq.These developments raise important questions about the future of ISIS members and families who were previously held in these camps, particularly in light of Iraqi statements indicating that the reception of these individuals represents only a temporary measure. They also raise a broader question: do these steps represent the beginning of a genuine effort to address this complex issue, or are they merely redistributing the risks without providing a lasting solution?Driving FactorsThe significance of the recent developments concerning ISIS members and their families—particularly the transfer of thousands of fighters to Iraq and the announcement of the closure of Al-Hol camp—can be understood in light of several contextual and driving factors, as outlined below:1. The SDF’s Challenges in Managing the Camps: Al-Hol and other camps administered by the Syrian Democratic Forces have long been viewed as complex environments combining security, humanitarian, and ideological dimensions. The SDF has faced significant difficulties in managing these camps due to limited resources and insufficient international cooperation in repatriating foreign nationals detained there.Accordingly, the decision to close the camp should not be seen merely as an administrative measure, but rather as an attempt to restructure the management of this issue after years of stagnation, particularly amid growing concerns that the camp could evolve into a breeding ground for the perpetuation&nbsp;of extremist ideology among younger generations.2. Redistributing the Burden of Managing ISIS Fighters: The closure of Al-Hol camp coincided with a U.S.-led <a href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4383698/us-forces-launch-mission-in-syria-to-transfer-isis-detainees-to-iraq/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">process</a> to transfer thousands of ISIS fighters from northeastern Syria to Iraq, reflecting a broader effort to redistribute the burden of managing ISIS detainees.On the one hand, Baghdad possesses greater institutional and judicial experience in dealing with members of the organization. Transferring them to Iraqi territory could therefore facilitate more structured judicial and security procedures. On the other hand, the move may reflect a U.S. effort to ease the pressure on its local partners in northeastern Syria, especially given the fragile security environment and the possibility of shifting political and military balances in the region.3. Recent Understandings Between the Syrian Government and the SDF: Recent developments regarding ISIS detainees and their families&nbsp;cannot be understood in isolation from the latest <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-reaches-deal-integrate-sdf-within-state-institutions-presidency-says-2025-03-10/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">understandings</a> between the Syrian administration led by Ahmed al-Sharaa and the Syrian Democratic Forces led by Mazloum Abdi.Reorganizing the camps and detention facilities that house ISIS members appears to be one of the sensitive issues currently being addressed through a more coordinated approach between the two sides. In this context, the closure of Al-Hol camp and the transfer of some detainees to Iraq reflect not only security considerations related to managing the threat posed by ISIS, but also an effort to reduce the political and security burden on SDF-controlled areas in northeastern Syria, potentially paving the way for the gradual reintegration of some of these areas into the Syrian state structure.4. Rising Security Disturbances in ISIS Camps and Prisons: Recent moves related to ISIS detainees are also linked to a series of security disturbances in camps and detention facilities associated with the group over recent months, particularly tensions inside Al-Hol camp and repeated escape attempts involving ISIS members or affiliated networks.These incidents have once again highlighted the fragility of the detention system in SDF-controlled areas, as well as the growing risks of ISIS cells re-emerging through <a href="https://www.dw.com/ar/%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A8-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%81-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%B7%D8%B1%D9%81/a-75714472" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">escape</a> attempts or organized unrest within camps and prisons.5. Growing Security Convergence Between Washington and Damascus: Developments in the issue of ISIS-linked families can also be understood in light of the rhetorical and operational escalation adopted by ISIS against the Syrian administration in recent months. This escalation is partly linked to what the organization perceives as a growing convergence between Syria and the United States in managing certain security files, particularly those related to prisons and camps holding ISIS members and their families.ISIS has sought to exploit the issue of women and children in these camps—especially in northeastern Syria—as a mobilization and propaganda tool, portraying it as evidence of coordination among its adversaries. The group has also intensified calls for its supporters to target detention facilities or attempt to free detainees.Within this context, recent efforts to dismantle some camps, redistribute families, and transfer fighters to Iraq appear to represent a pre-emptive attempt to deprive ISIS of a sensitive leverage point that it has long used for propaganda and operational purposes.Two Possible ScenariosIn light of the transfer of thousands of ISIS fighters from Syria to Iraq, the Syrian administration’s announcement of dismantling some ISIS-related camps, and the emergence of an international debate over the repatriation of nationals by their home countries, two possible scenarios may shape the future of this issue, as outlined below:1. Repatriation of ISIS Nationals by Their Home Countries: This scenario assumes that several countries may begin coordinating with Iraq and Syria to repatriate their nationals affiliated with ISIS.In this regard, Iraqi National Security Adviser Qassem al-Araji <a href="https://zagrosnews.net/ar/news/52771" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">announced</a> that 24 out of nearly 60 countries whose nationals were residing in Al-Hol camp have already begunprocedures to repatriate their citizens from ISIS-linked families. These efforts are part of broader international attempts to dismantle the camp and reduce its security risks.The United States has also <a href="https://asharq.com/politics/169201/%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A8-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%AA%D8%B3%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%B1%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%B2-%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AA%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">repeatedly</a> emphasized that the sustainable solution to the camp crisis lies in countries repatriating their nationals and either prosecuting or rehabilitating them.2. Iraq Becoming the Main Hub for Managing the Issue: The second scenario assumes that the transfer of ISIS fighters from northeastern Syria to Iraq will continue at an increasing pace, gradually turning Iraq into the primary arena for managing ISIS detainees.In this context, the Iraqi government is likely to adopt a two-track approach. The first track would focus on strengthening detention and judicial mechanisms, potentially through establishing or expanding specialized detention centers for transferred ISIS members and subjecting them to investigations and trials under Iraqi counter-terrorism laws.The second track would involve leveraging international support, particularly from the United States and its partners in the international coalition, including logistical and security assistance as well as rehabilitation and counter-extremism programs inside prisons. Iraq may also seek political and financial guarantees in exchange for assuming a large share of the burden associated with this internationally sensitive security issue.Temporary SolutionsIn conclusion, recent developments related to ISIS camps and detention facilities indicate that this issue is witnessing increasing regional and international attention, as it has evolved into a complex international security challenge requiring multilateral cooperation.Many detainees in these camps hold foreign nationalities, while several countries remain reluctant to repatriate or prosecute them on their own territory. Accordingly, current measures are likely to remain temporary unless they are accompanied by a broader international strategy that includes repatriation, fair trials, rehabilitation programs, and efforts to address the political and social conditions that contributed to the rise of ISIS.

Possible Pathways for Transferring ISIS Members from Syria to Iraq