Dr. Yasmin Calmet

Amidst sociopolitical uncertainty, high expectations, and polarization following the rejection of Kirchnerism, as well as an economic crisis and mismanagement by the Fernandez government, millions of Argentines went to the polls on Sunday, November 19th to elect the nation’s next leader. Polls had shown a close fight between candidates Sergio Massa and Javier Milei, and in the last presidential debate Massa was seen as more eloquent in presenting his political platform. However, Milei emerged victorious and will serve as the Argentinian president for the next four years. During this term, he will have to deal with the country’s worst economic crisis in decades, including the highest inflation in more than thirty years, two-fifths of the population living in poverty, and a steep currency devaluation.Javier Milei is an economist and college professor. He is not a seasoned politician, and has cast himself as coming from outside traditional politics to fight Argentina’s "political caste" and overhaul the system that plunged the country into a grave economic crisis.Milei has an aggressive and provocative style of expressing himself, prompting comparisons to former US President Trump as well as former Brazilian President Bolsonaro. Although he says he is not in favor of military rule, Milei has also downplayed Argentina’s past dictatorship, one of the cruelest in Latin America. He said it would be necessary to review Argentinian history and implied that the military did not commit a crime by killing "terrorists" who had tried to establish a communist regime.Milei is a self-described ultra-libertarian and anarcho-capitalist. In other words, he promises to defend individual freedoms to their fullest extent (as long as they are not linked to LGBTQIA+ rights), ensure state non-interference in the market, close the Central Bank, and dollarize the economy. He has also praised Margaret Thatcher’s neoliberal policies, views climate change as a "farce," ad opposes conducting any business with countries that are either socialist or communist.Argentina is South America’s second largest economy and one of the region’s leading grain exporters. In recent months, the country has also seen export growth in energy and fuel.Milei’s proclamations about refusing to engage with "communist" countries such as China and Brazil and about withdrawing from Mercosur have made neighboring countries and other Argentinian politicians uneasy. Argentina’s main trading partners are China, the US, and Brazil, the last of which imported 5 billion USD in products from Argentina in the first quarter of this year alone.If Argentina distances itself from China and Brazil, this would be a diplomatic setback leading to cooling relations and reduced possibilities for future trade agreements and scientific and technological exchange. China is currently Argentina’s top trading partner and sees the latter as a strategic partner for expanding in the Americas and curtailing US influence. For this reason, China has invested billions of dollars in infrastructure and technological development in Argentina. A cooling of bilateral relations would result in Argentina losing its main trading partners and would exacerbate the economic crisis further.Argentina’s withdrawal from Mercosur would mean that the bloc loses a protectionist government with a regionalist tendency. Milei’s stance on Mercosur is not unique among the members of the economic bloc: Uruguay has also questioned Mercosur’s effectiveness. Further uncertainty about Mercosur will force other member countries to rethink and update the bloc so that it can become more effective in negotiating with other trading partners, such as the EU and BRICS.Milei is unlikely to be able to pull Argentina out of Mercosur since this would affect certain bilateral agreements, especially regarding exports of industrial goods.&nbsp;Milei did not win the Argentinian elections because he had proven his ability to govern, but rather because of the appeal of his promises to fight corruption and inflation. Those who voted for him want to see radical change and economic growth that would enable Argentina to become a world power.Milei’s victory also signals the temporary death of Peronism and Kirchnerism. These political ideologies have been rejected due to corruption, governance failures, and an inability to address basic problems such as food security and access to the labor market. If proponents of Peronism and Kirchnerism want to return to power, they must reformulate themselves.Although the Liberty Advances party took 38 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 7 Senate seats, it did not gain the majority it would need to carry out its campaign promises. Milei will need considerable political skill to form alliances with the moderate right to push through unpopular proposals. However, political compromises could make it hard for the party to hold onto their seats in the next elections. The center-right coalition could be at risk of splitting and will not have much flexibility in negotiations to pass their proposals.Regarding dollarization, Argentina is still unprepared for this shift, as it lacks the necessary dollars. In addition, the challenges that former President Menem’s government faced in the 1990s demonstrate that dollarization alongside liberal economic policies were insufficient to resolve Argentina’s economic woes—indeed, those measures aggravated the crisis.Finally, Milei’s election could strengthen the wave of right-wing Latin American governments with authoritarian tendencies. This could jeopardize democratic development and impede efforts to protect minority rights, effectively resulting in sociopolitical suicide.

How will Milei's Presidential Victory Impact Argentina's Political Trajectory?