Sanya Abdelqader‏‏

The conflict with Iran and the resulting disruptions to maritime navigation and global supply chains have significantly worsened food security challenges worldwide, particularly in countries heavily dependent on food and fuel imports. As the conflict continues to affect <a href="https://odi.org/en/insights/the-long-term-consequences-of-the-iran-crisis-oil-is-not-well-that-ends-well/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">commodity prices</a> and drive up transportation and insurance costs, millions of people have been pushed into unprecedented levels of food insecurity. With humanitarian assistance declining and global prices rising, the crisis has evolved from a simple economic disruption into a growing humanitarian emergency that threatens social stability in vulnerable countries.Key IndicatorsSeveral indicators highlight the severe repercussions of the Middle East conflict on global food security, including the following:1. FAO Food Price Index Has Reached Its Highest Level in More Than Three Years: In April 2026, the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting disruptions to energy markets and supply chains—particularly following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—drove the FAO Food Price Index to its highest level in more than three years. The index <a href="https://asharq.com/iran/182269/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%88-%D9%82%D9%81%D8%B2%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">averaged</a> 130.7 points, its highest reading since February 2023, reflecting mounting inflationary pressures across global food markets driven by rising energy, shipping, and agricultural production costs.According to the FAO, the increase was driven primarily by a 5.9% rise in <a href="https://asharq.com/iran/182269/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%88-%D9%82%D9%81%D8%B2%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">vegetable oil prices</a>, which climbed to their highest level since July 2022. Higher prices for soybean, sunflower, and palm oils, coupled with stronger demand for biofuels derived from agricultural commodities, contributed to the increase. FAO experts also noted that war-driven energy price increases have directly contributed to the upward trend in edible oil prices.2. Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Have Risen Following Disruptions in LNG Supplies: Supply <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/the-iran-wars-impacts-on-global-fertilizer-markets-and-food-production/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">disruptions</a> and higher energy costs have triggered a sharp increase in nitrogen fertilizer prices, particularly urea, raising agricultural production costs across many countries. At the same time, lower (LNG) exports have constrained global nitrogen fertilizer production. Natural gas remains both the primary feedstock and the main energy source for ammonia production, which is a key component in all nitrogen-based fertilizers.<a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/the-iran-war-potential-food-security-impacts/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Urea prices</a> in the Middle East rose to $590 per metric ton on March 5, 2026. Although fertilizer prices remain below the record levels seen in 2021–2022, the current increase comes at a time when farmers are already facing lower crop prices, placing additional pressure on profit margins and influencing both planting decisions and fertilizer usage rates.3.Grain Prices Increased Amid Rising Energy Costs and Production Expenses: Tensions in the Middle East have disrupted energy markets, a key determinant of agricultural production and transportation costs. Higher oil prices have increased the cost of fuel, fertilizers, and shipping, while rising insurance premiums and shifting trade routes have placed additional pressure on supply chains, contributing to higher global grain prices.The increase has affected a broad <a href="https://vespertool.com/news/grain-prices-rise-on-middle-east-conflict-with-wheat-corn-and-soybeans-all-moving-higher/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">range of agricultural commodities</a>. Prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans have risen amid expectations of lower output during the 2026/2027 season and delays in agricultural production in several countries. Analysts suggest that further price increases will depend largely on how current regional tensions unfold, particularly the question of whether Iran and the United States can reach a comprehensive agreement or whether the conflict will continue in the months ahead. 4. Higher Shipping and Insurance Costs Threaten Global Food Security: The suspension of oil tanker and cargo vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of the war triggered a major geopolitical and economic shock, prompting a broad <a href="https://asharqbusiness.com/financial-markets/127423/%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D8%B3%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reassessment</a> of risk exposure. The resulting logistical disruptions have directly affected trade flows and global food security, largely through a sharp increase in maritime insurance premiums.According to data from Marsh, a leading global insurance brokerage and risk advisory firm, war-risk insurance premiums now range <a href="https://asharqbusiness.com/financial-markets/127423/%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D8%B3%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">between</a> 1% and 1.5%, depending on whether vessels are operating east or west of the Strait of Hormuz.These increases have affected not only vessels themselves, but also a wide range of maritime insurance services throughout the region. As a result, transportation costs for essential commodities and agricultural inputs such as fertilizers have surged, increasing the final cost of food shipments destined for global markets and placing additional strain on already fragile supply chains.Humanitarian ConsequencesThe humanitarian consequences of conflict extend well beyond the battlefield, often giving rise to severe social and economic shocks that disproportionately affect the world's most vulnerable populations. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East provides a clear example of this dynamic, as reflected in the following developments:1. Asian Countries Face Mounting Price and Supply Pressures: The humanitarian fallout from the ongoing military escalation has not been confined to the <a href="https://www.wfp.org/stories/why-middle-east-conflict-threatens-record-levels-hunger" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Middle East</a>. Rising prices and supply chain disruptions have increasingly affected parts of Asia, particularly economies heavily dependent on food imports. Afghanistan, for example, is facing this inflationary pressure while simultaneously grappling with a range of challenges, including border tensions, the aftermath of two devastating earthquakes in 2025, and concerns over the return of Afghan refugees from Iran. These factors have heightened concerns about access to food amid rapidly rising food prices.Elsewhere, Lebanon’s humanitarian crisis has deepened as displacement levels continue to rise amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. In response, the World Food Programme (WFP) has expanded emergency assistance, providing <a href="https://www.wfp.org/stories/why-middle-east-conflict-threatens-record-levels-hunger" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">food assistance and cash</a> support to more than 230,000 people and distributing over one million hot meals during the first two weeks of the escalation alone.2. Africa Faces Significant Impact from Rising Urea Prices: &nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-13/strait-of-hormuz-shipping-standoff-hits-world-s-most-vulnerable-farmers" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">African countries</a> have been particularly affected by the sharp increase in urea prices following the outbreak of the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising fertilizer costs have forced farmers in several countries to reduce the area under cultivation or abandon fertilizer use altogether. In South Africa, forecasts are predicting the lowest wheat harvest in <a href="https://observer24.com.na/sas-wheat-plantings-could-fall-to-the-lowest-level-in-12-years/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">12 years</a>, as supply disruptions prevent farmers from obtaining the inputs needed at the start of the planting season, threatening agricultural productivity and food availability.Malawi has emerged as one of the countries most severely affected by the crisis. The government, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/trade/exports/insights/gulf-shipping-standoff-hits-worlds-most-vulnerable-farmers/articleshow/131055833.cms?from=mdr" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">burdened by debt</a> exceeding $13 billion, has struggled to support farmers amid acute fuel shortages and gasoline prices exceeding $3.50 per liter. Authorities have been forced to sell part of the country's gold reserves and seek emergency financing from the World Bank to secure fuel imports. Aid organizations have warned that severe hunger could worsen significantly and affect millions of people by 2027.3. WFP Warns of Record Global Hunger Levels: The United Nations World Food Programme has warned that the near-total disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with ongoing risks to navigation in the Red Sea, could drive <a href="https://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-projects-food-insecurity-could-reach-record-levels-result-middle-east-escalation" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">global hunger</a> to unprecedented levels.According to WFP assessments, as many as 45 million additional people could fall into acute food insecurity or worse by the end of 2026 if a comprehensive agreement is not reached to prevent renewed conflict. Such a scenario would raise the total number of food-insecure people worldwide to a <a href="https://www.wfp.org/stories/why-middle-east-conflict-threatens-record-levels-hunger" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">record</a> 363 million, threatening to reverse years of development gains in already fragile environments.4. Europe Faces Higher Fertilizer Costs Amid Rising Energy Prices: Although the European Union is less vulnerable to fertilizer shortages than many other regions, it has been significantly affected by rising global prices and higher energy costs. Nitrogen fertilizer prices in Europe increased by 71% in April 2026 compared to the 2024 average, largely because domestic production remains closely linked to imported natural gas, whose prices surged following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.The impact, however, varies across European countries depending on the policy measures adopted by national governments. Ireland remains particularly exposed because of its heavy reliance on imported fertilizers and limited domestic production capacity. In 2025 alone, the country <a href="https://icos.ie/eu-fertiliser-measures-icos-warns-of-deep-crisis-ahead-unless-cbam-burden-is-urgently-addressed/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">imported 1.7 million</a> tons of fertilizer. By contrast, countries such as Finland and Sweden have proven more resilient due to their maintenance of strategic fertilizer reserves.As part of broader efforts to support European agriculture and stabilize fertilizer supplies, the European Union suspended tariffs for one year on several key nitrogen-based fertilizers and fertilizer inputs, including urea and ammonia. The European Commission estimates that the measure will <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2026/05/22/council-suspends-customs-tariffs-on-certain-fertilisers-for-one-year/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">save</a> approximately €60 million in import duties, helping reduce costs for both farmers and fertilizer producers across the bloc.ConclusionThe sharp rise in the FAO Food Price Index, worsening fertilizer shortages, and soaring shipping and insurance costs are signs of a global food system under increased strain. These pressures are already having a significant humanitarian and economic impact, particularly in vulnerable regions across Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.Going forward, the outlook for global food security will largely depend on how the current tensions between Iran and the United States unfold and on whether both sides can reach a comprehensive and lasting agreement that prevents a renewed outbreak of conflict. A prolonged or expanding war would likely exacerbate disruptions to global food supply chains, drive up energy and agricultural production costs, and further deepen the global food crisis.

How the U.S.-Iran Conflict is Leading to a Global Food Crisis?