Dr. Yasmin Calmet

South America is in the midst of political crises that have caused national and regional tensions. This is the product of past disagreements between countries in the region, which have always previously been able to maintain a political and economic equilibrium. However, the current situation could escalate and cause ruptures within South America in light of recent political events. On 3 December, Venezuela held a consultative referendum on whether it would annex the region of Essequibo, which is currently controlled by Guyana.Essequibo is a territory that has been under dispute between Guyana and Venezuela for more than a century. It is rich in raw materials and minerals, including petroleum, gold, diamonds, and copper. The territory was occupied by England during the nineteenth century and was claimed by the Spanish and then Venezuela, which asked for diplomatic help from the United States to force new arbitration to take back Essequibo. However, the Paris Arbitral Award of 1889 gave 94 percent of the territory to England and only 6 percent to Venezuela, which consequently refused the awarded territory.During the twentieth century there were sporadic tensions around Essequibo. In 1962, Venezuela tried to appeal the Paris arbitration at the UN but failed to resolve the territorial dispute. During the 1980s, the UN began mediating the plea. Things remained stable until 2015, when large petroleum reserves were discovered in Essequibo. This led to renewed disputes over which country was the true owner of the territory.During this period, the UN was unable to reach a mutually acceptable agreement between both countries, and responsibility for mediation passed to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In 2020, the ICJ ruled that it had jurisdiction to hear the dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. Sporadic conflicts continued to spontaneously erupt, most recently in 2021, when Guyana accused Venezuela of capturing its fishing ships and illegally extending its sea border.Under Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela has revived the Essequibo dispute, beginning with a consultative referendum to gather information on the Venezuelan people’s stance on the matter. Maduro’s decision to listen to the people’s voice can be explained by three factors: First, Maduro wants to divert the attention from his country’s political crises and perpetuation his own power. Second, the Venezuelan president hopes to bolster nationalism through defending sovereignty. Thirdly, Maduro seeks to expand control over natural resources that would give Venezuela more economic "autonomy."Regarding the first of the above factors, Venezuela has suffered a worsening political crisis caused by the erosion of democratic institutions and weak economic development. That has culminated in a mass exodus of Venezuelans, political polarization, and difficulties with transitions of power. This situation has highlighted uncertainties about the suitability and legitimacy of Maduro’s government; the president has already declared he intends to run for another term. However, opposition candidate María Corina Machado has performed well in the opposition primaries. This has raised concerns that the opposition is once more is gaining momentum and could potentially take out Maduro in the next presidential election.Maduro’s focus on Essequibo is a distraction strategy to win time to organize further to gain the Venezuelan electorate’s support and trust.The second factor is the intent to reclaim land lost and strengthen the fight against injustice. Maduro hopes to revive national unity, which has been undermined by crises, by struggling together as a nation for something that Venezuelans feel is rightfully theirs. Furthermore, inciting conflict in the name of national sovereignty gives the president more power over the Armed Forces, so that groups that no longer align with Maduro’s approach to governance can be disbanded.Third, Essequibo is a rich region. This has led to constant growth in Guyana in recent years, although it remains the second poorest country in South America However, according to BMD sources (2022) and the former US Ambassador to Guyana, Perry Holloway, the country’s GDP is estimated to grow between 300 and 1000 percent, which would make it one of the richest countries in the region, if not the world.Maduro intends to take of control of petroleum and mineral reserves to develop more economic "autonomy," improve Venezuela’s position in negotiations in the region and world, and find ways around US economic sanctions.The Essequibo dispute has raised alarm in South America and around the world. In the region, the main concern is rooted in the possibility of division and friction in regional relations. It would be unfavorable for business if South America becomes an unstable and unsafe place for investment and commerce. Furthermore, this dispute raises other possible scenarios, including heightened mistrust among neighboring countries. The Essequibo crisis would set a precedent of not respecting international treaties and raise fears in other countries of expansionist intervention across their borders. There is also concern about a resurgence of armed conflict and war, which last erupted in the region in 1994 between Peru and Ecuador.Guyana has petitioned the International Court of Justice to defend its right to Essequibo, while Brazil seeks to resolve these tensions via diplomacy. However, the latter has also been sending soldiers and armored cars to its borders to stop a possible invasion of Guyana by Venezuelan troops. Brazil wants to send a message that their territory cannot be used for any kind of military operation.Finally, this dispute could also provoke a "proxy war," which would benefit outside countries with significant interests in the region. This could lead to military interventions and a loss of political and economic autonomy for South American countries, and would further hinder a peaceful resolution on Essequibo.

What Are the Implications of the Tensions between Venezuela and Guyana?