Dr. Yasmin Calmet

Mexico’s recent elections on 2 June marked a significant political milestone as Claudia Sheinbaum became the country’s new president. Her victory will provide continuity with the plans of the outgoing AMLO government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador but is also a major step forward for gender representation in a country with deeply-rooted machismo.The elections were held amidst extreme violence that affected both voters and politicians and put the electoral process and integrity of democracy at risk. Thirty-four Mexican political candidates have been assassinated since June 2023. According to the Global Organized Crime Index, Mexico ranks third in the world for levels of organized crime. Criminal networks exert significant control in Mexico and have also infiltrated the political sphere due to institutional corruption. These networks influence decision-making and intimidate those who try to combat them.Despite this uncertainty and the obstacles to holding elections, voter turnout was just above 60 percent. This signals that voters felt a need to confront these groups and to demonstrate their continued trust in the democratic system. Sheinbaum was the candidate for the "Sigamos Haciendo Historia" coalition, which comprised the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), the Labor Party (PT), and the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM). Sheinbaum’s victory over her main opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez, can be attributed to at least three factors: a) Sheinbaum’s political history; b) her close relationship with López Obrador, which will ensure the continuity of public policies and reforms promised by the outgoing government; and c) poor coordination by the opposition.Claudia Sheinbaum is the first woman to be elected president in Mexico’s history. She served as the Head of Government of Mexico City and received several academic accolades in the fields of energy and the environment. Sheinbaum’s election as president marks a significant step forward in the fight against machismo in Mexico. In addition to the symbolic achievement of Sheinbaum’s victory, there are also practical implications for Mexican gender policies. For example, Sheinbaum has pledged to promote economic programs for women aged 60 to 65 and scholarships for basic public education. These measures aim to improve gender equity and empower Mexican women by increasing their participation in the economy and politics.Additionally, Sheinbaum’s political program has emphasized the importance of certain agendas for Mexican society, such as improving security for citizens, expanding free education at all levels, focusing on socially-oriented economics, raising the minimum wage, and transitioning to clean and renewable energy. Furthermore, the newly-elected president promised to continue the social programs that López Obrador had started. In a pre-election opinion poll, 64 percent of respondents receiving government support declared their intent to vote for Sheinbaum. This highlights that social programs were crucial to her electoral success.The new administration plans to continue with state reforms initiated by AMLO, and which are known as the Fourth Transformation of public life. These include reducing the number of members of Congress, a controversial judicial reform, proposing judges and magistrates by popular vote, and amending dozens of articles of the constitution to eliminate neoliberal laws. The perception of continuity is critical for political and economic stability, since AMLO’s social programs and reforms have had a significant impact on the lives of millions of Mexicans.Regarding the opposition’s lack of coordination, Gálvez’s candidacy was backed by three parties and a broad nonpartisan citizen movement that failed to establish fully cohesive political ideologies. Additionally, the persistent memory of the incompetence and corruption of the PAN and PRI governments, which ruled Mexico at various times since 2000, proved to be an insurmountable obstacle to Gálvez’s electoral success.Sheinbaum capitalized on this negative perception, constantly highlighting these past challenges, even in cases where this was not necessarily justified. This strategy significantly undermined Gálvez’s credibility. In addition to structural weaknesses in the Gálvez’s campaign, the opposition candidate made strategic errors, such as failing to respond quickly and effectively to López Obrador’s attacks against her integrity and honesty following allegations of illicit enrichment and favoritism in approving permits and contracts. Although Gálvez denied these accusations, she clearly lacked a solid strategy to counter such assaults, which further undermined her position. These errors, combined with the internal fragmentation of her support base, proved fatal for her campaign and contributed to Sheinbaum’s resounding victory.Finally, Sheinbaum will face significant challenges on the international front. Violence and corruption remain serious issues in Mexico, which has a high level of organized crime that affects both internal security and perceptions of Mexico abroad. Continuing AMLO policies could strengthen relations with regional allies and commercial partners, especially in certain countries of Latin America where progressive discourse and social policies resonate.However, Sheinbaum’s administration will also need to carefully manage relations with the US, particularly on issues such as immigration and trade. Her immigration security policy, which includes measures to close the border with Guatemala and control the flow of migrants northward, will be a delicate issue requiring skilled diplomatic negotiations.

What Does Sheinbaum’s Win Reveal About Mexico’s Political Future?