InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

Taiwanese voters elected Lai Ching-te in the 2024 presidential election, in what China described as a choice between war and peace, repeatedly stating that Lai supports the path of continued confrontation with Beijing. Three candidates competed for the presidency, which were held in a single round: Lai Ching-te, the current vice president and, like the president, a member of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP); Hou Yu-ih, the candidate of the Kuomintang Party (KMT), considered closer to Beijing; and Ko Wen-je, the chairman of the small Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Numerous DimensionsThis round of presidential and parliamentary elections included several events resulting from the international community’s interest in them:1. Relatively "calm" campaigns: Contrary to its framing in international media as "existential," the 2024 election campaign was markedly calm compared to past years’ campaigns. This indicates a less severe political climate compared to previous elections. It may also point to a mature democracy: Elections are not viewed as existential decisions, and a lack of inspiring or polarizing candidates could signal a shift towards a more normalized democratic process in Taiwan. &nbsp;2. Relatively low turnout: This calm climate was reflected in voters’ turnout, which, at 71.86%, was the second lowest in Taiwan’s history, down from a peak of 76.33% in the 2008 election cycle. For his part, Lai stressed that holding elections in the country showed the world that the Taiwanese people are resisting the efforts of external powers to influence the elections, and that Taiwan has chosen to stand by democracy. On the eve of the elections, Lai urged Taiwanese voters to come out, emphasizing that every vote matters, and that this is Taiwan’s hard-won democracy. 3. Continued support for the DPP: The election of a DPP candidate—Lai—to a third consecutive term as president is a sign of the DPP’s continued dominance in Taiwanese politics. This indicates that Taiwan’s voters continue to prefer a party that traditionally leans towards pro-independence positions. The DPP is the first political party to win three consecutive terms since the people of the island nation began directly electing their president in 1996. Taiwan’s President-elect Lai Ching-te of the DPP won with 40% of the vote, followed by Hou Yu-ih of the KMT with 33.5%, and Ko Wen-je of the TPP with 26.5%. 4. Declining impact of China’s escalatory rhetoric: Over the months leading up to the elections, China issued many warnings about the DPP candidate winning Taiwan’s presidency, saying his arrival would lead to an uncontrolled escalation with Beijing. However, these statements did not have a major impact on Taiwanese voters’ attitudes. Lai Ching-te perhaps confirmed this after his victory was announced, when he hailed the results as "a victory for the community of democracies" around the world, saying voters successfully resisted the efforts of "external forces" to influence the elections, in reference to Beijing’s efforts to oust the DPP. 5. Lack of opposition consensus: Lai’s victory in the presidential elections was aided by a lack of consensus among opposition forces, with votes fragmented between opposition candidates. As Huang Kwei-bo, a professor of diplomacy at National ChengChi University, told the Guardian: "Lai’s victory results mainly from the split of the main opposition parties that delayed and thus weakened the largest opposition party’s (i.e. the KMT’s) preparations in campaigns." 6. Ruling party’s loss of some gains in parliament: The DPP’s gains in the presidential elections were not mirrored in the parliamentary elections. The DPP won 51 seats, much less than the 57 required for a majority in the 113-seat body. The KMT won 52 seats, and the TPP won eight. Independents allied with the KMT won two other seats. Taiwan’s new legislature is scheduled to be sworn in on February 1, while Lai Ching-te will take office as president on May 20. 7. Beijing’s attempt to influence the electoral process: Beijing attempted to influence the election through its statements warning other countries against interfering in the electoral scene, in addition to warnings against any change in the island’s status. Some reports pointed to Beijing using military and economic tools to put pressure on Taiwan as well. Last December, days before the elections, China announced the suspension of tariff cuts on chemical imports from Taiwan. In January, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced Beijing was considering suspending tariff cuts on more products imported from Taiwan in response to the island’s trade restrictions and political maneuvers. In a related context, Taiwanese authorities are prosecuting nearly 200 local Taiwanese leaders, who were invited to travel to China, on suspicion that the trips were an influence operation aimed at boosting votes for pro-Beijing candidates. Days before the elections, Taipei also reported that it detected a number of Chinese balloons flying directly over the island, which some described as spy balloons.Possible RepercussionsThe possible repercussions of Taiwan’s presidential and parliamentary elections cannot be overlooked:1. Growing domestic challenges: The outcome of the elections will affect domestic policy priorities, including issues related to cross-strait relations, national defense, economic policies, and social reforms. While the DPP won, with its low share of the vote and loss of control over the legislature, with 60% of voters expressing their desire for change, the party may face difficulties in governing effectively. The need to cooperate with opposition parties has become critically important for the DPP to navigate a divided legislature. Lai’s awareness of this trend came out in is victory speech, in which he raised the possibility of holding a "national affairs conference" with opposition parties to find areas of consensus and cooperation. This is an indication that he realizes very early on that he needs to communicate with the opposition and build coalitions in order to govern. 2. New president’s attempt to ease confrontation with Beijing: Lai Ching-te is considered a pro-independence politician. He has vowed to preserve Taiwan’s autonomy, and his party, the ruling DPP, has been vocal about Taiwanese nationalism. As deputy to Taiwan’s current President Tsai Ing-wen since 2020, Lai has worked closely with her, and, like her, claims that Taiwan is already sovereign even if independence has not officially been declared. However, it is unlikely that the new president will reach extreme levels of confrontation with Beijing. For that reason, Lai sent a message to China that he prefers more exchange and dialogue, rather than obstruction and conflict, calling for peace and stability with Beijing. At the same time, however, he vowed to defend the island, underscoring his determination to protect Taiwan from China’s constant threats and intimidation. Taiwan’s foreign ministry also called on China to respect the outcome of the presidential election, face reality, and abandon the oppression of Taiwan in order to put cross-strait relations on back on the right track. &nbsp;3. Rise of the TPP: Given that both major parties (the DPP and the KMT) were not able to achieve a majority in the Legislative Council, the TPP will have the upper hand in controlling the balance of power within it, giving it the ability to shape the policies that are approved. Despite the new party’s strong performance—26.5% of voters chose Ko for president, and 23.8% supported the party on the general ballot (party list)—in Parliament, its staying power remains unclear. The DPP will have to work actively with opposition parties in the divided legislature. If not, an opposition-dominated legislature alongside a DPP president may make the process of governing Taiwan more difficult. &nbsp;4. Beijing continues to send Taipei warning messages: China was one of the most important concerns in this election. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has increased its pressure on the island over the past year, with a record number of incursions. The election result is expected to anger Beijing because of the DPP’s resistance to Chinese rule. Indeed, China has reemphasized that "reunification" with Taiwan is "inevitable." Chen Binhua, the spokesperson for the Chinese office responsible for relations with Taiwan, has emphasized that the result of the vote will not obstruct the inevitable trend towards reunification with China. He said the results show that the ruling DPP in Taiwan cannot represent the majority of public opinion on the island. The Chinese Ministry of Defense, meanwhile, warned that the PLA would take all necessary measures to firmly crush attempts at Taiwan’s independence, no matter their form. Therefore, in the short term, Lai’s victory is likely to be met with increased pressure from Beijing in the form of economic sanctions on Taiwanese exports, a military show of force, or other possible measures to underscore Beijing’s dissatisfaction with the outcome of the elections. This will set preemptively set the conditions for later interactions between Beijing and the incoming DPP administration. If the DPP manages not to lose the other parties, Taiwan will be in a stronger negotiating position vis-à-vis Beijing. This will allow it to make progress on issues such as reopening cross-strait lines of communication, which are considered "necessary" for regional stability. 5. Growing contention between Washington and Beijing: The election results will affect Taiwan’s relations with key international actors, especially the United States (US). The US is Taiwan’s main military partner, so the continuation of DPP rule could affect regional dynamics, especially in the context of US-China relations. Taiwan’s status is one of the most contentious issues in competition between China and the US, the island’s main military backer. Washington plans to send an "unofficial delegation" to Taiwan after the vote. At the same time, US President Joe Biden has stressed that US does not support Taiwan’s independence. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken congratulated Taiwan’s new president, praising the solidity of the island’s democratic system, but he also stressed Washington’s commitment to maintaining peace and stability across the strait, as well as the peaceful resolution of disputes without coercion and pressure. Thus, although it has not been long since Washington and Beijing celebrated the return of their communication channels and exchanged official visits, Taiwan is expected to continue to be a tool for the US to put pressure on Beijing. Washington hopes that the possibility of its participation will deter Chinese aggression. On the other hand, the US could use its influence to encourage peaceful dialogue between Taiwan and China. 6. Fears of impact on global trade and economy: Economic repercussions are possible, as Taiwan’s economic policies and trade relations could be affected by the international response to the elections. Any shifts in cross-strait relations may affect global economic dynamics. There are fears that Beijing will continue its policy of economic pressure on the new regime in Taiwan, and back away from tariff cuts on some Taiwanese products—policies that will have repercussions on the global economy and trade.&nbsp;&nbsp;7. Growing security threats in the Indo-Pacific: The election result could raise security concerns in the Taiwan Strait, and the Indo-Pacific region more generally. The elections drive towards greater regional polarization, especially after Beijing criticized Washington’s statements on the elections and congratulation of the winning candidate. The elections were also an opportunity to confirm the state of an international struggle for influence. Moscow used the elections to affirm its alliance with Beijing. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said, in a statement after Lai’s victory was announced, that Moscow continues to consider Taiwan an inseparable part of China. In conclusion: The repercussions of the elections, inside Taiwan and abroad, are complex, and hold political, economic, and security considerations. The dynamics of cross-strait relations and international responses will play a decisive role in shaping the post-election landscape. It is true that Washington has tried to calm Beijing’s fears by asserting it does not support Taiwan’s independence. Still, this does not mean that Washington’s support for the new president—known to support Taiwan’s independence—will not lead to continued tension between China and the US.&nbsp;

What Did Taiwan’s Election Results Reveal?