Dr. Yasmin Calmet

Latin America currently faces numerous challenges. The recent coup attempt in Bolivia took place amidst other regional uncertainties about where democracies are headed, political tensions between countries, electoral controversies, and structural problems.It is worth remembering that Latin America was the epicenter of military coups from the 1960s onwards. Even before that period, many countries experienced internal strife and a alternating sequence of legitimate governments and civil or military coups. Since independence, Bolivia has weathered nearly 200 armed uprisings. Furthermore, of Bolivia’s 37 republican governments, 23 experienced attempted coups. By this metric, Bolivia is the most unstable country in South America.The events of 26 June 2024 reflect ongoing political and economic instability. During the past five years, Bolivia has dealt with political turmoil, including the resignation of President Evo Morales in 2019 due to political pressure from the opposition and sectors of the business and military middle class, who questioned whether Morales should be able to run for re-election again. Political tensions in the streets led to violence across various parts of the country; in the Bolivian capital of La Paz, demonstrations resulted in 35 deaths.The 26 June 2024 coup attempt can be understood from several angles. However, three factors are particularly relevant in understanding the Bolivian context: messianic militarism, internal divisions within the Movement for Socialism (MAS), and political-economic interests in the extraction of lithium.First, since its establishment as a republic, Bolivia has been guided by the military.&nbsp;The country was liberated by Simón Bolívar and its first constitutional president was Grand Marshal Antonio José de Sucre (1825-1828), one of the leaders of the independence movement. Moreover, until the end of the twentieth century, Bolivia alternated between military and civilian presidents. This highlights the military’s prominence in the Bolivian political system. Most of these military leaders came to power through coups, some of which resulted in extremely violent dictatorships.The continuous presence and participation of the military in the political sphere gave the military a central role in Bolivian politics. The military was positioned as a legal and legitimate force for freedom and republicanism, and was granted prestige and trust in matters of national security and defense. According to 2021 data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), despite declining popular support for the military, 42 percent of the Bolivian people still said that they trusted the armed forces. This indicates that there is a higher level of trust in the military than in the Supreme Court (22%), the legislature (31%), or the president (29%).Juan Jose Zuñiga, who was the general of the Bolivian army until the June 2024 coup attempt, used a discourse of salvation to justify the attempted coup. He stated that Bolivia "was being controlled by vandals who are harming the nation. Thus, the armed forces intend to restructure democracy, a true democracy, not one run by those who have been in power for thirty or forty years." Zuñiga drew upon messianic symbolism to cast the coup as an attempt to save the nation, maintain order, and prevent political elites from corrupting democracy.However, Zuñiga did not receive the support he expected from the people or from social organizations, which immediately took to the streets to stop the military coup. The unified popular mobilization against the coup was crucial in preventing its success. Bolivia has a long history of popular resistance, including demonstrations during the Cochabamba Water War in 2000 and the "Gas War" of 2003. These protests show that Bolivian civil society is capable of organizing and resisting attempts to undermine democracy.Second, internal divisions within the Movement for Socialism (MAS) is another crucial factor in understanding the recent coup attempt. In September 2023, Evo Morales announced his candidacy for the 2025 elections, challenging President Luis Arce, who is seeking re-election. This split within MAS led Arce to lose his majority in the National Congress, while Morales accused the government of condoning corruption. This internal dispute weakened the party’s cohesion and paved the way for Zuñiga’s attempted coup.Third, Bolivia has one of the world’s largest reserves of lithium, a strategic resource for the production of phone and electric car batteries. This geopolitical factor makes the country a focal point for international and local interests. The battle over these natural resources has exacerbated internal conflicts and foreign intervention, and further complicated Bolivian politics. Competition over this strategic resource involves both local and international actors, thus increasing the complexity of the crisis. Governments of elites aligned with hegemonic interests often promote privatization as a solution to economic challenges, even though that approach can worsen instability.Finally, the attempted coup generated a strong international reaction, including from Brazil, which coordinated with other countries in the region to support Bolivia’s current government. This mobilization is a sign that despite the far-right wave sweeping the world, democratic institutions in South America can be resilient.Moreover, the military coup’s failure has several implications for Bolivia. It is vital for the country’s political and economic stability that the Arce government will remain in power and democratic order will be preserved. However, persistent division within the MAS and the ongoing threat of future military intervention suggest that stability remains a distant prospect.Had the coup succeeded, there would have been negative repercussions for the entire Southern Cone region, since regime change would have affected dialogue and integration forums in which Bolivia participates, such as Mercosur. Regime change could have produced greater instability, increased violence, and deterioration of human rights. Additionally, Bolivia’s failed coup reminds us of the importance of international vigilance and regional solidarity to support democracy and combat authoritarian forces.&nbsp;

How Bolivia's Coup Attempt Reflects Regional Instability