In the past few months, major shifts in the Chinese military have raised many questions about Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s ability to root out corruption in the armed forces and modernize the army. The most recent purge included the sudden removal of the minister of national defense and dozens of top Chinese military figures. This revealed a series of structural challenges facing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and which have prompted the Chinese leader to take various steps to eliminate these obstacles. In so doing, Xi Jinping is fulfilling the promises he made when he was elected in 2013, particularly with regard to fighting corruption and pursuing an ambitious program to modernize the army.

Major Challenges

There are many foreign and domestic crises that are affecting the performance of the Chinese military, including the following challenges:

1. Growing suspicions of military corruption: Since coming to power in 2013, Xi Jinping has pursued various policies and measures to fight corruption in the army. However, some believe that he is also using this approach to remove political opponents. As part of the imperative to fight corruption, Xi Jinping has repeatedly linked his anti-corruption campaign with efforts to improve the combat readiness of the military.

In January 2024, an annual meeting of anti-corruption officials in Beijing took place without explicitly raising military affairs. No explanation was given for the removal of Chinese generals months before, and which is widely believed to have involved suspect maneuvers. Most significantly, Minister of National Defense General Li Shangfu was removed last August, which appears to have been the most significant shift linked to illicit gains within the People’s Liberation Army in years. Many experts have traced Li Shangfu’s removal to prior involvement in corruption.

Xi Jinping did not stop with the minister of national defense, but rather has continued to pursue other sudden shake-ups in top Chinese military leadership in recent months. Beijing expelled nine high-ranking PLA officers from the National People’s Congress. It also stripped three top defense officials of their posts as governmental advisors. These included two generals who had previously led the PLA’s Rocket Force, a former air force commander, and an admiral who had led the Chinese navy in the South China Sea. China has faced growing threats from the US and its allies in that geopolitical hotspot. Some of the nine ousted officers had been involved in arms procurement, which has long been seen as susceptible to corruption.

2. A threat to Rocket Force capabilities: A Bloomberg report indicated that US intelligence had found that Chinese military corruption had escalated to the point that missiles were sometimes filled with water instead of fuel. Furthermore, many silos in western China had lids that did not "function in a way that would allow the missiles to launch effectively," according to the report. This might explain why many top military officials in the PLA Rocket Force had been dismissed. This force is responsible for the country’s traditional and strategic ground-based missile stockpiles. Members of the Equipment Development Department, which is responsible for purchasing and testing weapons, were also targeted in the dismissals. Bloomberg indicated that US intelligence had found that Xi Jinping’s most recent campaign came in response to concerns that rampant corruption had undermined the combat readiness of the Chinese military.

The Chinese leadership’s interest in missiles can be explained by the fact that this part of the army now oversees the largest stockpile of ground-based missiles in the world. This includes hundreds of traditional cruise missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles. China is currently estimated to have about 300-400 nuclear warheads, according to the most recent annual Pentagon report on the Chinese military. Many of these are designed to target US ships if war should erupt in Taiwan. The Rocket Force has already played a key role in live-fire exercises that China held around Taiwan. According to the Pentagon, China is projected to possess up to 1500 warheads by 2035, which is when Xi Jinping’s "basic modernization" plan for the PLA is set to conclude.

Despite the lack of any clear indication of misappropriation of funds from the Chinese missile program, some reports indicate that big military spending plans have facilitated embezzlement, kickbacks, and other kinds of graft. Xi Jinping has consequently drawn on entities outside the Rocket Force to subvert patronage networks in that particular organization. Most significantly, the force had a new commander installed, General Wang Houbin, as well as a new political commissar, General Xu Xisheng.

3. Accusations of treason and espionage for Washington: The US has continued to maintain its capacity to spy on China, despite the latter’s efforts to purge its intelligence. According to a recent Wall Street Journal story, Beijing uncovered a network of Chinese agents working with the CIA about a decade ago. Many US officials believe that Chinese counterintelligence now uses sophisticated AI systems to trace potential US spies and other foreign agents in Beijing. However, the US has also ramped up its intelligence activities in China and increased spending in that field since Biden took office in 2021.

The Chinese government did not officially state the reasons behind the changes in ministerial and leadership posts in recent months. Some have speculated that military secrets had been divulged. In October 2023, a comprehensive report on the structure of the PLA was released by the China Aerospace Studies Institute, a US Air Force think tank, which raised suspicions over whether information was leaked from within Chinese army circles. Other analysts suspect that the Chinese Rocket Force has come under particular scrutiny because US intelligence (both leaked and officially published) demonstrated complete knowledge of the structure and scope of the force’s capabilities. This led to increased concern in Beijing about spies and assets working for US intelligence agencies.

4. Trailing behind Washington’s military capabilities: Although China has made significant progress in modernizing its army, it continues to trail behind advanced armies such as the US in fields such as high-tech weapons, information technology, and artificial intelligence. A recent Royal United Services Institute report quoted in The Guardian indicated that the "‘maximum period of risk’ of the Chinese military attempting to blockade Taiwan or territories in the South China Sea was likely to be between 2026 and 2028, because Chinese capabilities would be sufficiently advanced by then, while the US would not have responses ready."

China boasts the largest army and navy in the world, the third largest air force, and one of the most powerful traditional missile stockpiles, including some missiles capable of striking US bases in the Pacific Ocean. At the same time, most assessments indicate that the PLA is still far from ready for war with the US. In order to ensure victory in any potential conflict, particularly over Taiwan, China will first need to overcome numerous longstanding problems, including a convoluted leadership structure, inadequate logistics, and a lack of fighting experience. Beijing has not gone to war since the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979. It will also need to address new challenges, including lessons learned from the war in Ukraine, restrictions that the US has imposed on high-tech exports to China, and its limited number of technologically-skilled recruits.

5. Limited military assets abroad: The Chinese defense strategy has historically focused on defending Chinese territories closest to home. However, in light of its growing military power and foreign policy interests, Beijing has started to focus on expanding military assets in more far-flung places. It has built only one active military base abroad, in Djibouti, and might start to build a naval installation in Cambodia. Nevertheless, there are serious limitations to the extent to which China can further expand these military installations abroad.

China also lacks formal military alliances, with the exception of North Korea. It is unlikely to develop other military alliances in the foreseeable future. This also significantly constrains China’s capacity to seriously expand military forces outside its borders. China continues to maintain a tactical presence much smaller than that of the US, which has a vast network of hundreds of military bases in more than 80 countries around the world.

6. Recruiting challenges for the PLA: Despite China’s goal of attracting more recruits with high-level technological skills, the PLA has struggled to find sufficient personnel to operate its modern weaponry. The 2020 Chinese census indicated that the number of PLA recruits with higher education had risen to 57 percent, up from a little more than half in 2010. However, this is still far below the PLA’s target of 70 percent, and the percentage of personnel with postgraduate degrees decreased.

Although the PLA has pursued initiatives to recruit more college graduates, many who have the requisite skills choose higher-paying jobs in the private sector, positions in various industrial sectors, or prefer to travel abroad. The accelerating pace of military modernization has exacerbated this challenge. The official newspaper of the PLA reported in December 2022 that the Chinese navy did not have a sufficient number of individuals trained to operate all of its new warships. It referred to this problem as "equipment awaiting talent." As a result, the PLA has instituted various new changes since 2020 and has begun to recruit twice a year instead of only once in an effort to ensure a steadier influx of trained forces.

7. Military-civilian tussle over leadership structure: The PLA was founded in 1927 as the Red Army. It is the armed wing on the Chinese Community Party, an affiliation that continues to the present day. Because the civil party leadership does not trust military elites at all, key decisions are always made by party committees within the PLA, each of which is led by a political officer (usually called a commissar). A political commissar has authority equivalent to a military commander, but the former usually has greater influence due to leading the party committees.

Most individual military units and navy ships have a political commissar who oversees morale and manages promotions. The commissar is also in a position to intervene in military operations and controls decisions about replacing military commanders who are killed or injured. This can lead to disputes over authority between military and civilian political leadership, which becomes more perilous on the battlefield or in dealing with military threats, especially since political commissars have limited knowledge of specialized military operations.

However, instead of addressing this overlap between roles, President Xi Jinping has insisted on backing continued political coverage for army activities. He has ensured the political loyalty of the army and maintained party control over the military, according to critics. The Chinese president cannot abandon the commissar system, since he is well aware of potential threats from military figures as he works to develop an army with global clout.

8. An escalating arms race: Given the complexities of the escalating arms race between the great powers, China has greatly increased its military capabilities in recent years. This is partly due to expanding its defense budget to record levels (1.55 trillion yuan, equivalent to 225 billion USD, according to a draft budget report released by the Ministry of Finance during the beginning of the annual session of the National People’s Congress). This puts China second after the US in defense spending and also increases pressures on the Chinese economy, which is still struggling with the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the major geopolitical and geo-economic crises that followed. Beijing had already been facing economic difficulties and growing tensions with the US.

9. A tighter grip on illegal military units: In late October 2023, the Chinese ministry of national defense confirmed that there was an ongoing campaign to integrate People’s Armed Force units, which some reports have characterized as militias, within state-owned enterprises. Some experts argue that this campaign has shed light on Chinese efforts to prepare for a potential conflict over Taiwan. Others claim that there is a link between Chinese authorities’ concerns about social unrest amidst economic difficulties, and the desire to impose more stringent regulations within society.

During a monthly press conference held in October 2023, Wu Qian, the spokesperson for the Chinese ministry of national defense, clarified that People’s Armed Force units within state-owned enterprises were part of the national defense system. He said these units oversaw the party’s armed activities within these enterprises, and that they were part of governmental recruitment within these enterprises.

10. Reliance on foreign suppliers: Marine and plane engines made up more than 55 percent of Chinese arms imports between 2017 and 2022, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This was a source of concern for the PLA even before the war in Ukraine, since this posed a major risk in case of future wars. Many Chinese military boats use Ukrainian, French, or German engines manufactured under license in China. Many Chinese submarines that run on diesel fuel or electricity are also German. It is thought that models that run on nuclear energy largely rely on Russian technologies.

The war in Ukraine has exacerbated these challenges, since Kiev has faded as a future supplier for Beijing. Even if Moscow was prepared to provide more sophisticated technologies, given its own growing reliance on China, that capacity could also diminish. Meanwhile, European suppliers are under growing US pressure to stop providing materials that could be used for military purposes. This became clear last year when Germany banned the exports of German engines for Chinese submarines that were sold to Thailand, which resulted in Thailand cancelling the deal.

11. China’s declining reputation as an arms exporter: Some reports indicate that there were defects in Chinese equipment sold to nations such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Nigeria. One Chinese study of military drones in 2020 found that the drones would likely be unfit for combat requirements due to technical faults.

Although weapons manufacturers around the world have dealt with cost overruns, delays, and defects, China is currently facing additional problems. Its defense industry was designed along the lines of Soviet industries, and suffers from many of the same drawbacks. For example, it has a very fragmentary structure, which arose from an obsession with secrecy, as well as strict separation between research and production units. Chinese defense research institutes are also seriously impacted by central planning. It is evident that this complex system and its internal frictions make these institutes ill-suited for the contemporary aims of achieving rapid high-quality project outcomes.

Various Repercussions

The challenges discussed above have led to various consequences, which can be summarized as follows:

1. Obstructing the development of Chinese military capabilities: Immediately after coming to power, Xi Jinping expressed his concerns about how corruption was affecting the PLA’s fighting capabilities. He stated during his first major campaign against military officers in 2014 that if the army was corrupt, it would not be able to fight. With regard to a potential war in Taiwan, the Rocket Force could play a major role in launching missile attacks on the island and attempting to keep Washington at bay. However, Bloomberg has indicated that corruption has plagued both the Rocket Force and defense industries, which reportedly means that Xi Jinping is "less likely to contemplate a major military operation in the coming years than would have otherwise been the case." The current state of affairs therefore hinders China from pursuing its interests and stances on this issue.

2. Trust over competence: According to Wu Qian, the spokesperson for the minister of national defense, the removal of military leaders was a scare tactic to ensure the loyalty of remaining military leaders. A lack of oversight and transparency can easily lead to corruption and mismanagement. On the 96th anniversary of the establishment of the PLA, the Chinese military’s official newspaper published a piece calling on members of the army to protect and support Xi Jinping as the core of the Community Party.

Most notably, the new leaders for the Rocket Force were selected from other parts of the army, which marked a major departure from military tradition in China. The new leaders of this military wing had air force and naval backgrounds, while the previous commander and his predecessors had all come from within the Rocket Force. This shift is particularly dangerous because the Rocket Force is one of the most sensitive branches of the PLA. This new step could therefore have negative repercussions for Beijing with regard to the potential conflict in Taiwan. However, without trust in the leadership of a force that would be pivotal to that war, Xi Jinping could be very hesitant to go to war in the first place.

3. Encouraging investment in the Chinese military: In light of the growing threats around China, the president has sought to modernize the military so that the country will be better prepared to deal with regional conflict in the East China Sea and South China Sea. The Chinese navy has invested in submarines and aircraft carriers, while the air force is developing stealth fighters. The decreased size of the armed forces is part of long-awaited reforms that focus on qualitative improvement in the combat capabilities of the Chinese army and increased professionalism.

Xi Jinping also intends to reshape the structure of the military and establish a joint operations command. This is something the PLA has previously mentioned and would serve to improve coordination between different parts of Chinese defense systems. Although Beijing is moving quickly to modernize its military equipment, the operational integration of diverse, complex systems across a regional leadership structure remains a major challenge.

4. Escalating rivalry with the West over arms technologies: The crises within the Chinese army, especially regarding armament operations, have spurred heightened action from Beijing to develop its armament capabilities and utilize technology to modernize the Chinese army. This could lead to further rivalry with the West over arms technologies, which could also result in expanded restrictions on certain Western technologies from which China could benefit.

5. Growing doubts about the Chinese army’s capability to invade Taiwan: Despite the progress that the PLA has made regarding some capabilities, the Chinese army is still struggling with various challenges with its forces, equipment, and experience. It also faces difficulties with leadership structures that will be necessary if it is to be confident of victory in a war on Taiwan. There are other potential challenges China senses from observing the war in Ukraine, as well as issues related to US restrictions on high-tech exports to China, and limited numbers of technologically-skilled recruits. Logistical problems have also raised many questions in China and elsewhere about whether the PLA has the fuel, provisions, ammunition, medical services, and other critical support necessary to maintain an invasion that could last for weeks, if not months.

In conclusion, the Chinese military is facing many challenges, especially with regard to rampant corruption and decreased combat readiness among its soldiers. It is likely that key obstacles will remain in the path of global Chinese military supremacy, and which could continue to undermine its efforts in the Indian and Pacific Ocean in particular. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping is clearly endeavoring to confront these issues and root out problems as part of his ambitious plan to build a sophisticated and powerful army capable of achieving his country’s foreign policy goals. He seeks to develop an army that could propel him to extend Beijing’s influence in the region, and even potentially to reintegrate Taiwan into Chinese territory.

Why is the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Facing Many Roadblocks?