InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

A little over 100 kilometers south of the Syrian capital, Damascus, the city of Sweida has witnessed one of the most intense episodes of sectarian clashes under the country’s transitional regime. Since July 13, 2025, 50 persons have been killed and more than 200 others have been injured in clashes between local Druze factions, armed Bedouin tribes, and the Damascus government, reflecting underlying tensions among minorities in Syrian society. The unrest has sparked widespread condemnation from external actors. Syria’s Defense Minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, announced a ceasefire in Sweida on July 15, 2025. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Interior warned against any violations or attacks on public or private property under any pretext. However, tensions continued to simmer, and clashes soon resumed. The turmoil in Sweida sheds light on key challenges to Syria’s stability and carries potential repercussions for the country’s future. These challenges are exacerbated by the current transitional administration’s use of hard power against local dissidents, in addition to Israel's involvement. Israeli aircraft have intervened to protect the Druze, conveying security and political messages that Israel will stand by them, even as it maintains channels of communication with the government in Damascus.Impactful DimensionsThere are several dimensions associated with the recent escalation of the sectarian tensions in Sweida, including the following:1- Significant external reactions to the crisis: External actors have strongly condemned the clashes in Sweida Governorate, which caused several casualties. They called for an end to the violence. This has manifested in a series of reactions by Western and international diplomatic bodies who expressed their grave concern toward the situation. For example, the German Embassy in Damascus highlighted, in a statement on July 14, 2025, its concern over the escalating violence in Sweida, calling on all parties to exercise utmost restraint and prevent the triggering of confrontations.The UN Deputy Special Envoy for Syria, Najat Rochdi, also expressed concern over reports of violence and kidnappings in Sweida. Meanwhile, Turkey has subtly expressed its support for the Damascus government's actions against the Druze. Öncü Keçeli, its Foreign Ministry spokesman, asserted on July 14, 2025, that Syria's sovereignty and unity must be prioritized.2- The Druze seeking immediate international protection: Druze factions have sought to capitalize on the local conflict in Sweida, sparked by the alleged kidnapping of a Druze figure, to justify their call for protection. This is through transforming the criminal incident into a political escalation. The Spiritual Leadership of the Druze Unitarian Muslims reiterated its refusal to allow public security forces to enter the governorate. In a statement issued on July 14, 2025, it reaffirmed several demands, most notably an urgent call for immediate international protection.3- Intensive Israeli interventions to support the Druze: Israel has sought to leverage the sectarian tension in Sweida to its advantage by intervening amid the rising conflict. It launched airstrikes targeting areas near several towns including Mazra'a, Kanaker in the Sweida countryside, under the pretext of protecting the Druze minority. Israel threatened to use force against the Syrian regime if the Druze community’s security is endangered.Notably, the Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz said on July 14, 2025, "A message and a clear warning to the Syrian regime. We will not allow harm to the Druze in Syria," adding "Israel will not stand idly by [remain passive]". With these statements, Israel aims to cultivate local alliances among some Druze factions who fear the future of their relationship with the transitional government in Damascus.4- The Syrian administration's focus on a military solution: The Syrian administration's handling of the violence in Sweida, which resulted in the deaths of dozens of civilians, reveals its continued use of hard power to secure the central government's control over key state institutions. In light of this, it emphasized that there is no alternative to disarming outlaw groups as well as consolidating security and state control in Sweida.The Syrian Ministry of Defense stated on July 15, 2025, "(…) we will respond only to sources of fire and deal with any attacks by outlaw groups". According to many analysts, the use of government force against the Druze remains a strategic necessity to ensure sovereignty over areas where some elements question the state’s legitimacy. This is particularly evident in Sweida, where separatist rhetoric and sectarian mobilization are on the rise, echoed by some voices seeking to divide Syria.Potential RepercussionsThere are several potential repercussions of the escalating sectarian crisis in Sweida, which could impact the situation inside Syria. The most prominent of these are:1- Expanding Israeli influence in southern Syria: Israeli intervention in the recent events in Sweida is likely to result in an expansion of Israeli military presence throughout southern Syria. This poses a direct threat to the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, especially after Israeli raids on several military sites inside Sweida. In Israel's view, these gains inside Syria can be further enhanced through supporting the Druze.2- Increasing momentum to establish a local security administration: &nbsp;Calls for creating a local security administration in Sweida will likely be amplified, amid escalating tensions between local Druze factions and the central government in Damascus, and with the former’s determination not to surrender its weapons due to ongoing threats. The new local administration will be responsible for oversight and security in the city, independent of the government’s directives. This raises serious concerns for the transitional regime, because it opens a window for the re-emergence of separatist actors who seek to undermine the state's exclusivity in ensuring the country’s sovereignty and armament. Furthermore, the Druze call for international protection in a bid to achieve their autonomy.3- Worsening humanitarian and public service conditions: The continued sectarian tension and instability in Sweida pose a direct threat to the overall humanitarian situation, which is already experiencing a significant deterioration due to the unrest. These confrontations have compounded the high rates of insecurity in the governorate and the destruction of a significant portion of the infrastructure services. The humanitarian crisis is further aggravated by growing waves of displacement, which endanger the lives of thousands. With the insistence on using force between local Druze factions and the authorities in Damascus, it’s highly unlikely that the humanitarian situation will improve.4- Failure of peace negotiations between the Druze and Damascus: The repercussions of recent sectarian incidents may derail the negotiation process between the government and the Druze, even with the agreement on a ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy machinery from Sweida to hand the city's neighbourhoods security over to government-affiliated internal security forces. The process of peace negotiations is supported by a segment of the community, but it has not been met with a strong desire from the Druze movements who are politically active and, on the ground, as evident in their calls for international protection. It is also worth noting that armed Druze men attacked and detained the governor of Sweida, appointed by the Damascus government, on May 22, 2025. In addition, Hikmat Salman al-Hijri, the spiritual leader of the Druze community in Syria, rejected the interim constitutional declaration in March 2025, which stipulated that the Syrian president must be a Muslim. Al-Hijri called for a secular, participatory democratic system alongside decentralization in Syria.A Persistent Challenge to National StabilityIn conclusion, it can be argued that the ongoing unrest in Sweida could significantly affect the Druze community and increase instability in the country. The continuation of sectarian violence in the coming period may further undermine the Damascus government's efforts to gain international support by damaging its image among certain external parties.

How the Sectarian Escalation in Sweida Affects Syria’s Internal Stability