InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

Interregional for Strategic Analyses held a seminar titled "The New Polarization: The Future of Competing Strategies in the Indo-Pacific," featuring Jeffrey Payne, Assistant Professor at the Near East South Asia (NESA) Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University, USA, as a keynote speaker.Key ActorsParticipants noted that current developments in the Indo-Pacific extend beyond competition for hegemony between China and the United States, as there are many other forces involved:1. Multiple regional and international entities in the region: Various regional entities in the Indo-Pacific are coordinating efforts, discussing issues of common interest, reaching consensus, and presenting them to the international community. The most notable of these are ASEAN, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), which are either led by India or where India has significant influence. Other entities include the Pacific Islands Forum, which focuses on Pacific Island issues, prioritizing climate change due to its existential threats, as well as various UN bodies addressing important issues like maritime drug trafficking and humanitarian concerns. Additionally, the East Asia Summit is primarily an economic and political forum, followed by Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.2. Diversity of emerging multilateral forums: Emerging multilateral forums like BRICS introduce new dynamics to the region's security structure, leveraging the economic potentials of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Despite internal tensions, particularly due to the dominance of China and Russia, BRICS acts as a critic of the US-led system and collaborates with developing countries. Furthermore, China's Belt and Road Initiative represents a significant development with its extensive global investment projects that are challenging traditional power structures. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), led by Russia and China, has evolved from a security mechanism to an economic forum encompassing Central and South Asia. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) focuses on maritime concerns, while the AUKUS partnership, a trilateral security pact, is based on nuclear submarines.3. India's rising role as a regional power: Participants highlighted the growing maturity of medium powers in the region, especially India, exemplified by the Indian Navy's successful release of the commercial vessel MV Rozen’ and its crew from Somali pirates after three months of captivity. Although there are differing views on the extent of India's role, it resists being classified as a medium power due to its economic size and population. However, participants noted that India is not necessarily a superpower with influence beyond its immediate region, even though its footprint on the security landscape is increasing. In this context, ASEAN is seen as an influential medium power in the Indo-Pacific, bringing together regional actors and seeking to build momentum and consensus on key talking points that align with member states' agendas.4. Russia's declining role in the region post-Ukraine war: Participants observed a decline in Russia's role in the Indo-Pacific due to the Ukraine war, although it still attempts to maintain some influence through joint military exercises with countries like China and Iran, positioning it as a medium power in the Indo-Pacific. Meanwhile, Australia, historically identifying as a Western country, also sees itself as an Asian or Pacific nation with coasts on both the Indian and Pacific Oceans, giving it unique geographical perspectives on the Indo-Pacific. Despite its historical naval prowess, Russia's influence today is diminished, especially compared to China's rise. The Sino-Russian alliance faces power dynamic tensions, with Russia's reluctance to take a subordinate role to Beijing. Although Russia remains a medium power with military capabilities, its economic influence is waning, contrasting with China's ascendancy.5. Japan's growing role in the Indo-Pacific: Alongside the roles of China and the United States, Japan's role has also become more prominent, redefining its foreign policy over the past decade to play a larger role as an international actor, reshaping its economic and diplomatic interactions, and enhancing security efforts with allies. This emerging role should not be overlooked in the Indo-Pacific, albeit on a lower level than China and the United States.6. Concerns over negative impacts from North Korea and Myanmar: Certain countries can significantly alter regional dynamics not through influence but through disruptive potential, such as North Korea with its military activities posing a massive regional or global crisis risk. Similarly, Myanmar's ongoing internal conflict and security campaigns against the Rohingya have triggered a migration crisis affecting Bangladesh, India, and other regional countries, alongside civil war in entire provinces.7. Movements by Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore: Emerging medium powers like Indonesia, with significant potential in various fields and a growing urban population, are striving for far-reaching influence. The Philippines has adopted a more confrontational policy under President Marcos, and although often overlooked, it remains influential in the Indo-Pacific with some territories under its sovereignty. Additionally, Singapore, a small but highly influential country with the most developed economy in Southeast Asia, advocates for a unified regional policy, organizing the annual Shangri-La Dialogue that brings together many key players to discuss crucial regional issues. Finally, Vietnam is currently involved in numerous tensions with China.Security DeterminantsParticipants identified several factors affecting Indo-Pacific security, summarized as follows:1. Priority on securing turbulent waterways: The primary factor influencing Indo-Pacific security and interstate conflicts is the security of waterways, which form the fabric of regional interactions, spanning from the Western Pacific, East China Sea, South China Sea, Sea of Japan, to the Pacific Ocean, Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, Oceania, and Indian Ocean waters, alongside trade flows and intercountry relations.2. Escalating border disputes among countries in the region: Border disputes in the South China Sea are escalating, intersecting with the exclusive economic zone claims of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. China's involvement in the South China Sea, often accused by Washington of destabilizing the region and attempting to seize these waters, is a contentious issue. However, participants noted that China is not the sole culprit, with other countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines making maritime claims exceeding what the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea permits. There are specific criteria for classifying land, such as being above water at high tide and sustaining life, yet several countries are building artificial islands to assert territorial control and claim exclusive economic zones and regional resources.3. China's Increasing Use of Maritime Militias: Challenges arise from China's gray-zone operations in the region, using civilian maritime vessels trained quasi-militarily and prepared for potential confrontations as an asymmetric tool to assert dominance over waters. These militias have been used to surround foreign coast guards during routine patrols in suspected economic zones. Their civilian status poses challenges for confrontation, as they can gather in large numbers, with any scuffle framed by China as aggression against civilian vessels.4. Intensifying Tensions in the Taiwan Strait: Developments in the Taiwan Strait represent a major flashpoint and a significant concern, potentially leading to widespread conflict in a crucial shipping lane between China, Japan, Europe, and the US, with 88% of the world's largest ships passing through these waters. Chinese military activities there cause significant anxiety, with risks of accidents or miscalculations leading to unintended or catastrophic consequences.American PerspectiveMost views simplify the competition between China and the United States in the Indo-Pacific as both countries are on a collision course. However, perspectives in Washington on China's moves and their regional impacts can be summarized as follows:1. Washington views China as a revisionist power: Washington sees China as a revisionist power aiming to reshape international system rules to its advantage at everyone else's expense, despite China gaining much from the current system. This perspective leans towards political realism, putting China on a collision course with the US. Participants added that Washington's policy community views China's policies as opaque, with the Communist Party controlling most state affairs, complicating predictions of its next steps. This opaqueness is evident when any country tries to contract with China, as understanding what is enforceable, especially within the Belt and Road Initiative's framework, is difficult due to the highly ambiguous political contracts.2. Beijing ensuring no foreign dominance in the region: Prevailing views in Washington hold that China aims to secure its control over neighboring countries, especially ensuring no other powers dominate these nations, making them either pro-China or neutral. Participants noted that this view misaligns with actual China-neighbor relations, which are primarily economic without sufficient political ties. Most neighboring countries are strong US allies, like South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia, with strained relations with Russia, India, and ASEAN. China has no formal allies in the region except North Korea.3. Viewing China as a Technological and Military Rival: Competition between China and the US intensifies in technology, particularly in quantum computing, as seen by Silicon Valley experts. Each country strives to proliferate its technological innovation model globally quickly, establishing its model as the standard for companies and nations worldwide. Militarily, many in the US military and strategic community see China as the primary rival on political, military, and especially economic fronts, being the first real competitor since the Soviet Union. However, China avoids playing a stakeholder role or bearing its burdens, with no tangible contributions to regional security enhancement.4. China Unprepared for Global Leadership: Some in Washington believe China pretends to be a global leader but is unprepared for this responsibility, unwilling to do what great powers must do in the public domain. Therefore, China pursues a foreign policy marked by adventurism, trying to become a major political power as rapidly as it became an economic one. This was evident in its interference in Australia, attempting to influence an electoral process through disinformation campaigns.The Future of the Indo-PacificThere are several promising opportunities for countries and entities in the Indo-Pacific, including:1- Utilizing an Experimental Partnership Approach: Traditional multilateral frameworks, like the United Nations and ASEAN, remain significant. However, there is also an exploration of alternative, possibly temporary, collaborations aimed at addressing specific challenges through experimental partnerships. This involves key players, including China and the United States, as well as smaller actors. Currently, there is significant momentum in the Indo-Pacific around technology, economic development, trade standards, and data interactions, involving countries such as China, Japan, Korea, the United States, ASEAN, Australia, the GCC, and the EU.2- Reframing the U.S. Role in the Region: Participants emphasized the Indo-Pacific's importance to current and future U.S. policy, especially compared to a decade ago when Washington focused on counter-terrorism. Today, the Indo-Pacific waters are of great significance, and the U.S. aims to keep them open and free, ensuring its involvement. This represents a reframing, not a retreat, of the American role in the region, with significant opportunities for cooperation between ASEAN and the GCC.3- European Efforts to Boost Influence: Europe has not yet fully developed its strategy in the Indo-Pacific. However, none of the U.S. allies or partners can fulfill the role of the U.S. in the region. Since the end of World War II, the U.S. has seen itself as the primary, if not dominant, power in the Pacific. Thus, what the U.S. primarily seeks from Europe is assistance in areas beyond its direct reach or capability. This includes economic projects, providing public benefits, and facilitating regional talks, acknowledging that the U.S. cannot be everywhere at once.This mindset reflects a complementary relationship between the U.S. and its allies, forming a network contributing to security dynamics and economic efforts. This presents significant opportunities for Europe, especially considering that most European countries cannot directly influence security affairs in the Indo-Pacific due to geographical limitations.4- Opportunities for Gulf states from U.S.-China rivalry: When the two largest and most powerful nations in the world experience significant tensions, it warrants attention from the Middle East, the Gulf, and elsewhere. The competition between them, such as China's efforts to establish an alternative to the U.S.-led economic system, has, in some cases, opened new opportunities for regional countries to explore various forms of investment and international partnerships. However, this has also led to reactions from the U.S. and its allies, resulting in potential shifts in international investment patterns. While this rivalry carries risks, it also presents opportunities.In conclusion, participants outlined future paths that could impact the Indo-Pacific either negatively or positively, as there is uncertainty about how developments will unfold. Potential disruptions in oil production and exports from the Middle East could significantly affect global prices, particularly since major consumers like China, Japan, and India heavily rely on imports. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that tensions in the Indo-Pacific will escalate into a major confrontation. China's internal challenges, such as an aging population and infrastructure issues, may limit its ability to influence markets as it has in the past. Although short-term demand fluctuations may occur, these are likely to be temporary disruptions rather than long-term trends.

The Future of Competing Strategies in the Indo-Pacific (Panel Discussion)