Menan Khater‏‏

Once reliant on inherited Soviet-era weaponry and external financing networks, Ukraine has recently transformed into a military power increasingly capable of playing a direct role in defense manufacturing—though this transformation has been anything but linear. Ukraine’s trajectory here has followed a pattern of "two steps forward, one step back,"&nbsp;under the impact of both internal factors—most notably, corruption—and external pressures linked to the evolving threat environment. The first signs of Ukraine’s military modernization emerged after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, but those efforts stalled and fell short of the challenge. In the wake of the 2022 invasion, however, modernization efforts finally gained real traction, despite the severe losses Kyiv sustained during the early stages of the war.Qualitative ShiftsUkraine has achieved notable advances in its defense capabilities during the war with Russia, reflecting a high degree of adaptability and operational flexibility in responding to new threats. The most significant developments include the following:1. Rapid Expansion of Defense Manufacturing Capacity: Ukraine’s defense industry has expanded rapidly since 2022, scaling up from initially limited capabilities to large-scale production of ammunition and combat systems built to NATO standards. According to recent estimates, Ukraine now <a href="https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/b0003eae" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">produces more</a> artillery shells than all 32 NATO members combined—a surge that coincides with a 400% increase in armored personnel carrier production, a 200% rise in <a href="https://ubn.news/five-eu-countries-have-created-a-working-group-to-develop-joint-defense-enterprises-with-ukraine/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">artillery output</a>, and a 150% increase in ammunition production.The Bohdana howitzer illustrates this transformation. Output rose from a single unit in 2022 to roughly <a href="https://united24media.com/latest-news/zelenskyy-ukraine-now-producing-40-2s22-bohdana-155mm-howitzers-each-month-12229" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">40 units</a> per month by the end of 2025 at the Kramatorsk plant. Ukrainian firms are reportedly able to <a href="https://jamestown.org/russias-war-transforms-ukraine-into-a-world-leading-military-producer/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">deliver</a> the system within 60 days at a cost of $2.5 million, compared with longer delivery timelines and costs of around $4.3 million in Western markets.2. Rising Levels of Defense Spending: By 2023, government spending on weapons and dual-use goods had increased twentyfold compared with 2021, reaching $30.8 billion, before rising to approximately <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-parliament-amends-2025-budget-raises-defence-spending-wartime-record-2025-10-21/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">$70 billion</a> in 2025. Although a substantial share of procurement funding was directed toward foreign weapons purchases—including the M142 HIMARS, Patriot, and NASAMS systems—Ukrainian arms producers have restored and expanded domestic production capacity, particularly in drones and the 155mm Bohdana 2S22 self-propelled artillery system.3. Curtailing Corruption Within the Military Establishment: Kyiv has made measurable progress in combating corruption, which has long represented a major challenge within the defense establishment. Measures have included <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-nato-reforms-military-procurement-f0483561c9d402697d7a67dd43ae844d" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">digitizing</a> military procurement processes end-to-end, <a href="https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/the-ministry-of-defense-announces-a-selection-of-members-of-the-public-anti-corruption-council" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">establishing</a> the Public Anti-Corruption Council under the Ministry of Defense to boost transparency and oversight, and <a href="https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2025/transformation-ukraines-arms-industry-amid-war-russia" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">converting</a> state-owned conglomerates like Ukroboronprom into joint-stock companies.Ukraine has also intensified security investigations and prosecutions targeting corruption networks within the military sector.4. Expanding the Role of the Private Sector in Defense Production: The Ukrainian government has increasingly embraced a model centered on private-sector partnerships and the empowerment of entrepreneurs and innovators in advanced weapons manufacturing. As part of this, in April 2023, Kyiv launched the Brave 1 platform to accelerate battlefield innovation.The government now <a href="https://jamestown.org/russias-war-transforms-ukraine-into-a-world-leading-military-producer/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">supports</a> no fewer than 1,500 technology companies through grants totaling $30 million. These include 140 firms producing electronic warfare systems and unmanned ground vehicles. One such <a href="https://www.euronews.com/next/2025/08/21/how-a-drone-and-missile-startup-is-helping-ukraine-become-the-silicon-valley-of-defence" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">company developed</a> the FP-1 explosive drone, capable of traveling up to 1,600 kilometers, and it has reportedly been used extensively in strikes deep inside Russian territory.5. Growing Use of Advanced Technology in Military Operations: Throughout the war, Ukraine has increasingly emphasized the use of advanced technologies in combat operations. In a December 2024 attack north of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces reportedly <a href="https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-20-2024/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">conducted</a> their first ever ground assault using only automated systems rather than infantry, successfully destroying Russian positions.These systems have also been used for mine-laying and mine-clearing operations. Earlier reports indicated that the Ukrainian military carried out its first assault using <a href="https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2025/transformation-ukraines-arms-industry-amid-war-russia" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">unmanned ground vehicles</a> (UGVs) alongside first-person-view (FPV) drones. Some <a href="https://jamestown.org/russias-war-transforms-ukraine-into-a-world-leading-military-producer/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">estimates</a> suggest Ukraine could evolve into the "drone capital of the world," with a shift toward AI-enabled drone swarms anticipated during 2025–2026.&nbsp;6. Developing Military Partnerships with Allied Manufacturers: Ukraine has established broad defense partnerships focused on joint drone production with Germany, United Kingdom, Denmark, Norway, and France. Other key partners include Lithuania, the United States, and multiple European Union member states. More than 41 countries are contributing security assistance, including Australia and South Korea.U.S. and European defense manufacturers have also expanded their presence inside Ukraine. <a href="https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2025/transformation-ukraines-arms-industry-amid-war-russia" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Companies</a> such as Rheinmetall, KNDS, and AeroVironment have opened production facilities and launched joint ventures with Ukrainian producers. On the whole, these partnerships are expected to accelerate military standardization in line with NATO requirements, supporting Kyiv’s long-term membership ambitions. Alongside this, Ukraine secured more than <a href="https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/za-2024-rik-v-ukrainsku-oboronnu-promyslovist-zalucheno-ponad-pivtora-miliarda-dolariv" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">$1.5 billion</a> in investment for its domestic arms industry from nine Western donor states in 2024.Likely DevelopmentsUkraine is expected to continue expanding its defense and military capabilities along several tracks, most notably the following:1. Deepening Defense Partnership with NATO: Ukraine is expected to assume growing importance as a trusted defense partner for NATO. This may entail expanded joint exercises, deeper interoperability, joint defense projects, and—eventually—greater momentum toward Ukraine’s ultimate goal: full NATO membership. 2. Expanding External Military Partnerships: Ukraine is increasingly leveraging its advances in defense manufacturing to expand its external footprint through technical assistance, advisory cooperation, and arms exports. This trend is likely to continue and intensify.For example, on February 5, 2026, Ukraine signed a <a href="https://odessa-journal.com/ukraine-and-poland-have-signed-a-letter-of-intent-on-the-joint-production-of-armaments" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">letter of intent</a> with Poland on joint weapons production. Over the course of the war, Kyiv has also reached understandings over defense cooperation with multiple countries, including an <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-ukraine-sign-new-defence-pact" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">agreement</a> with the United Kingdom in April 2024 to promote industrial and defense collaboration.3. Gradual Easing of the Arms Export Ban: Despite its growing defense-industrial base, Ukraine has restricted arms exports since 2022 to preserve domestic supply. This policy is <a href="https://www.tectonicdefense.com/ukraines-defense-industry/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">gradually shifting</a>, however, with discussions underway about allowing limited exports to selected allies while continuing to prioritize domestic needs.According to a survey published in October 2025 by the Ukrainian Council of Defense Industries, <a href="https://militarnyi.com/en/news/94-of-ukrainian-manufacturers-are-ready-to-export-weapons/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">94.4%</a> of manufacturers support lifting restrictions on exports. Former Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal stated in September 2025 that cooperation had already taken place with more than 25 companies under the "Build with Ukraine" and "Build in Ukraine" initiatives.4. Producing Local Alternatives to Air Defense Systems: Ukraine is conducting research to develop a domestic air defense system similar to Patriot, known as Kilchen, designed to counter Russian ballistic and cruise missiles.The proposed system is <a href="https://maxpolyakov.com/history-of-ukrainian-militaristic-missiles/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">expected</a> to have a range of over 200 kilometers and the ability to intercept multiple targets, including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and high-performance aircraft. Developers estimate that Kilchen could cost far less than its U.S. counterpart—perhaps between one-third and one-sixth of the Patriot’s price ($150 million versus $500 million)—thus allowing broader deployment.&nbsp;5. Securing Additional External Defense Financing: Ukraine’s war effort still <a href="https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2025/transformation-ukraines-arms-industry-amid-war-russia" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">depends</a> heavily on Western weapons, whether supplied as aid or imported commercially. Although domestic production has begun for weapons previously sourced abroad—including artillery ammunition and armored systems—Ukraine still faces a long path before it can produce local substitutes for all the battlefield systems it currently imports.Accordingly, Kyiv is expected to continue seeking additional funding from foreign partners to strengthen its military capabilities and procurement capacity.Extended StrategyIn conclusion, Ukraine appears to be on an upward trajectory toward consolidating its position as a competitive defense power capable of leveraging its industrial and technological capacity for broader strategic gains. While the country is still partially dependent on external support, the drive toward deeper partnerships, local alternatives, and participation in international defense markets suggests that this transformation is not simply a short-term response. Rather, it points to a long-term restructuring of Ukrainian military power and a more prominent role for Ukraine within the European security architecture going forward.

Ukraine’s Growing Role as a Military Power