Dr. Yasmin Calmet

The upcoming year will be an election year in some Latin American countries. This means that 2024 brings uncertainty about the direction the region is headed as it chooses new leaders, especially due to the resurgence of populism. Many of these candidates have an authoritarian bent, and their speeches reveal questionable emergency plans to resolve problems within their countries.This election year opened on 4 February with presidential and Legislative Assembly elections in El Salvador. Current President Nayib Bukele was strongly favored to win reelection, despite many accusations that his candidacy was unconstitutional. The political opposition view Bukele as a populist leader who wants to change the current political system to ensure he can maintain power. However, most Salvadorans see him as a politician committed to the people and their rights, and who has built a free, sovereign, and safe El Salvador. Bukele is an excellent orator and knows how to engage in dialogue with the population. He is a charismatic leader who can break down political abstractions, &nbsp;such as democracy, sovereignty, or freedom, into more concrete details that capture the people’s emotions. This ensures that Bukele will have the necessary support to give his policies legitimacy. When he was first elected in 2015, he convinced the electorate that drastic measures were necessary to restore security and state control. People were then willing for Bukele to &nbsp;implement emergency policies to combat violence, poverty, and political instability.However, Bukele’s re-election has been contentious due to changes he made to the constitution that allowed him to "reinterpret" electoral laws, as well as arbitrary arrests of any politician or civilian who he felt could pose a danger to the state.Despite concerns about Bukele’s irregular candidacy, around 85 percent of voters still backed him due to their confidence in the achievements of his first term. Bukele restored state control, reestablished public security, and rebuilt governance. His massive popular backing can be explained by the fact that the opposition, mainly Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) and Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) parties, have been discredited. These parties are seen as responsible for letting gangs grow stronger and for increased violence in the country.Bukele’s party also did well in the legislative elections, according to early reports, they took at least 58 of the 60 seats in the Legislative Assembly. This supermajority will give Bukele broad powers to implement political reforms that will allow him to continue his fight against crime. Nonetheless, lack of opposition in a democracy is dangerous, as it could lead to the system becoming authoritarian, more violent, and less transparent with regard to accountability for the actions of the government and the armed forces.Without any political counterweight, the government’s argument that a hard hand is needed to combat violence is becoming increasingly normalized, while political debates have turned one-sided. Without political opposition, there is neither a balance of powers, nor political representation for those who depart from government orthodoxy. Nevertheless, Bukele views his victory as the state’s triumph against organized crime, a step forward for social justice, and the restoration of a "true" democracy arising from the people’s sovereignty and power instead of political elites and criminal factions. Furthermore, Bukele understands that his "success" in the fight against crime will serve as an example to other Latin American countries, since he sees El Salvador as a country free from ideological polarization, and which enjoys unity, security, and full liberty.Bukele’s reelection will clearly bring some repercussions and challenges beyond establishing a secure and violence-free state. First, it is important to highlight that in societies with authoritarian governments, arbitrary arrests are common practice. Targeting particular groups is justified through the creation of a "common enemy," regardless of whether that enemy is criminal or not. For example, under Peru’s Fujimori government, political freedoms were curtailed in the name of security, and anyone who was against the regime was labelled a terrorist.Secondly, the economy is extremely important to achieving social equality. Although Bukele claims that there has been progress in this regard, United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) and World Bank data show that El Salvador has had one of the slowest-growing GDPs in Central America over the last five years. Meanwhile, public debt is at record levels (totaling more than $39 billion USD) and extreme poverty has doubled (to 1.87 million people). Bukele’s emergency policies have created a feeling of security but failed to solve economic dependence and precarity issues that have also plagued other countries in the region.Third, although Bukele’s speech was welcoming towards potential business partners and allies across ideological stances, his government has also questioned and violated international treaties, especially related to human rights, on grounds of protecting El Salvador’s sovereignty. This attitude could pose an obstacle to increased foreign trade plans, and could spur other countries in the region to intensify human rights crackdowns.Finally, Bukele’s victory means that the Latin American far-right has a new ally. His reelection strengthens and legitimizes ruling through violence to achieve a "greater good." It reflects increased popular frustration with democracy and attraction to charismatic figures. This victory establishes Bukelism as a new populist ideological current that intensifies, legitimizes, and homogenizes authoritarian power.

What Challenges Await El Salvador’s Bukele After His Re-Election?