Dr. Yasmin Calmet

In a context of uncertainty about the possibility of holding elections in Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro, who has been in power since 2013, has tried to show that the country maintains a democratic system. However, his recent statements have generated controversy and discomfort in the international political system. In one of his recent speeches, Maduro stated that if the opposition won the elections, the country would face a "bloodbath" and a "civil war." These statements, widely reported by the international press, cast doubt on the integrity of the electoral process and provoked tensions with one of his main political allies, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.Maduro's words came in a context of divergences in the results of voting intention polls, although opposition candidate Edmundo González is leading most of them by a wide margin. Maduro insists that these results are false and nothing more than a political maneuver by the opposition to turn Venezuela into "a Milei's Argentina." This divergence in the results of electoral polls leads us to an essential reflection on the quality and impartiality of research and public opinion institutes in Venezuela, which have overestimated the opposition's votes in past elections. These divergences generate distrust in the conduct of the polls, complicate the forecast of the electoral result, and show a perception of being used as biased and instrumentalized electoral campaign tools that enable electoral fraud.It is essential to remember the importance of maintaining democratic systems with regular, accessible, and transparent elections as fundamental for political stability and good relations between the regional states. Although some regional leaders have specific political and ideological alignments, supporting anti-democratic speeches and actions can undermine government trust and increase the risk of political and economic sanctions from the international community.In light of this scenario and the calls for a stance on Maduro's statements, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva expressed his concern, emphasizing that in a democratic system, the electoral result must always be respected. In addition, Brazil announced the dispatch of observers to ensure the transparency of the electoral process on July 28 in Venezuela and designated the special advisor for foreign policy, Celso Amorim, to monitor the transparency of the elections and the contest, as well as to mediate dialogues between the government and the opposition.Lula's statements had an immediate impact, and Maduro's response to "have a chamomile tea to calm the fright," followed by questioning the transparency of the Brazilian electoral system—alleging that electronic voting machines are not auditable—generated more tensions between the two leaders. Furthermore, the Venezuelan president's statements prompted an immediate response from the president of Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Minister Carmen Lucia, who decided not to send technicians to monitor the presidential elections in Venezuela. This decision could hurt the transparency of the electoral process, highlighting the need for more excellent international supervision to ensure the legitimacy of the electoral result and respect for democratic rights.It is worth remembering that Brazil has been the primary international interlocutor in favor of Venezuela's political and economic reintegration into the global system and seeking viable and peaceful solutions to the Venezuelan political crisis. Resolving this scenario would positively impact political and economic stabilization in Latin America.Supporting the democratic transition in Venezuela has direct implications for Brazil and the region. Venezuelan political instability could increase the migratory flow to Brazil and other neighboring countries, further straining their socioeconomic resources and leading to a reevaluation of political strategies in the context of regional security.Finally, what can we highlight from this political scenario?First, there is political pressure in South America for Maduro to commit to following democratic guidelines, respecting human rights, and contributing to the return of Venezuelan migrants to the country. Additionally, overcoming the economic crisis in Venezuela is fundamental for regional stability. This would alleviate the migration crisis caused by the strong Venezuelan exodus in recent years, as many countries in the region do not have an adequate political, economic, and social structure to receive a high migratory flow, currently exceeding six million people.Second, the continuation of Maduro's regime or the rise of a new opposition government could lead to different paths. A new government could signify the resumption of broader international relations, with a tendency for the country to realign its diplomatic negotiations with the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. On the other hand, the permanence of Maduro could maintain the state of isolation and sanctions. It is essential to highlight that non-transparent elections intensify distrust in the results, weakening the democratic system, especially when there is no alternation of power and the strengthening of authoritarian figures occurs. Thus, the alternation of power in the country could facilitate institutional balance, improve credibility in democracy, and strengthen the autonomy of the legislative, executive, and judicial branches.Lastly, tensions between Brazil and Venezuela are not new. Although Brazil understands the importance of Venezuela's reintegration into the regional and international system, questions about Maduro's political actions—mainly the exclusion of two opposition candidates from the electoral race, interference in the conflict with Guyana, and insistence on fulfilling the Barbados agreement—have been the trigger for Maduro's less diplomatic responses. These tensions reflect the complexity of the political situation in Venezuela and its implications for the region, as well as strain relations between the two countries and undermine the possibilities for dialogue in favor of any international recognition.

Understanding the Growing Strain in Venezuela-Brazil Relations