Dr. Diana Galeeva‏‏

The death of the former President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi might have many implications at the regional, international level, in addition to its main ally – Russia.&nbsp;Between Russia and Iran, clearly there are positive dynamics in defence and military collaboration, especially since 2022, in addition to growing cultural, educational exchanges and economic ties, largely due to both being under unprecedented global sanctions.Turnover between Moscow and Tehran reached almost $5 billion, and last year alone it grew by 20%. Russia is ranked first in terms of foreign investment in Iran (<a href="https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6508961" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">in 2023</a>). Joint projects include in the oil and gas sector, energy and logistics;&nbsp;Russia supplies grain and oilseed, lumber, inorganic chemicals, machine-building equipment, paper and cardboard, measuring instruments to Iran. Vegetables and fruits, nuts, dairy products, plastics, ferrous metal products, building metals and stone, plumbing products are imported from Iran.In the first quarter of 2024, a currency agreement between Iran and Russia is scheduled to be signed (countries will be able to trade in <a href="https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6428764" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">roubles and rials</a>). Developing alternative financial and economic systems also occurs between coutnries: for example, Sberbank and Bank Melli Iran agreed to open credit lines for 6.5 billion rubles; a pilot project: acceptance of cards of the Russian Mir system will be launched in Iran.However, the possible scenarios of the military escalation in the region, might affect collaborations in building alternative economic and financial payments systems. For example, one of the central projects between two countries, involving India and Azerbaijan, is the implementation of the International "North-South" Transport corridor. Insecurity in Iran and roots of interconnectivity might affect for effective implementation of aforementioned project, which aim to negative effects on efforts on reshuffling the international world order. In other words, there is s debate of the world order, whether it can be called as using Iranian narratives of concentrating on ‘Overcoming the Western disease’. This emerged in the 1960s through the Third World postcolonial narratives introduced by Iranian intellectuals, such as Jalal al-Ahmad, who suggested the popular Ghardzadegi or ‘West-toxification’ of the areas they dominated through imperialism.The same ‘West-toxification’ can arguably be seen in the Raisi’s view. In January 2022, in the shadow of the build-up of the Ukraine crisis, President Ebrahim Raisi visited Moscow, and met with President Putin, calling for closer collaboration to counter pressure from the US, stating that ‘Just like you, we have also stood up against US sanctions from 40 years ago’. He continued: ‘Today’s exceptional circumstances require significant synergy between our two countries against US <a href="https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2022/jan/21/raisi-russia" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">unilateralism</a>’. During Raisi’s tour in 2023 to other countries of the Global South and allies of Russia – Cuba, US-sanctioned Nicaragua and Venezuela, that share what Raisi called "common enemies" –&nbsp;both Ebrahim Raisi and President of Cuba Mihuel Diza-Canel said that their nations "have had to face heroically, with tenacious resistance, the sanctions, the pressures, the threats, the blockades and the indifference of US imperialism and its allies".&nbsp;This also can be added to the theme of ‘West-toxification’, which is clearly shared with Russia.Also, here can be added the North Korean position over the Ukraine crisis since 2022, as it has expressed the position that it is the West’s "hegemonic policy" that gave Putin justification to defend Russia by sending troops into its neighbouring country. North Korea also joined Russia and Syria to recognise the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk and has hinted at an interest in sending construction workers to those areas to help with rebuilding efforts. Russia and China blocked US-led efforts at the Security Council to strengthen sanctions on North Korea over its intensifying missile tests.&nbsp;Also, in September Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia to meet with Putin. The meeting followed Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu making a rare visit to North Korea, in addition of Sergey Lavrov’s, as cooperation deepens. There are further similarities with the Iran situation, where heavy US-led sanctions have driven the countries together as alternative markets. Ironically, for certain cases the sanctions have made turned these states into more attractive partners for each other, recognising a synergy of needs.In the potential scenario, of direct involvement of Iran in the regional war (which might be further enlargement of the Gaza war), means redirection of its defence and military resources from its allies. In November 2023, Iranian Deputy defence Minister Seyed Mehdi Farhi told Tasnim that a deal has been finalised to purchase Russian Mi-28 attack helicopters, Su-35 fighters and yak-130 <a href="https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6365297" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">combat trainers</a>. Before that, Iran confirmed an order to purchase Russian Su-35 fighter jets, as well as other military equipment, including helicopters and missiles.&nbsp;In March 2023, the country’s permanent mission to the UN announced the completion of the deal to purchase the Su-35 from the Russian Federation. In September, the Iranian Air Force the first Russian-made Yak-130 training aircraft, Tasnim <a href="https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6365297" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">clarifies</a>.&nbsp;Nonetheless, all these deals in military and defence might be challenged, as simply Iran will require for its own use.&nbsp;Finally, even emerging fields such as collaborations in education might be further challenged, as require financial investments. There are also interesting dynamics of growing educational links since 2022. For example, in November 2023, international cooperation was actively discussed at the session "Scientific and technical cooperation between Russia and Iran". Iran expressed readiness to create a joint scientific community with Russia and even provide scholarships to Russian students. Nonetheless, such efforts might be hold in case of the escalations in the Middle East.To sum up, the crash of the helicopter with the former Iranian leader might have its implications to the regional security, and broader towards bilateral relations with its key allies, mainly Russia. Especially, it might challenge all ongoing collaborations and joined efforts, named as "West-toxification", which were directly supported by Ebrahim Raisi.&nbsp;

How Will the Iranian President’s Incident Affect Moscow-Tehran Relations?