Sabena Siddiqi‏‏

Over the last few weeks, the Taliban-led administration in Kabul has been making strategic moves towards new regional cooperation. Although this Afghan regime remains unrecognized, it is exploring geopolitical and strategic options that have attracted attention.First of all, the Taliban government announced its intentions to invest <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/taliban-investment-iran-port-chabahar-pakistan-azadi-briefing/32863147.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">$35 million</a> in Iran’s southeastern port of Chabahar. The Afghan business community funded this step after losing trade routes with Pakistan due to tense bilateral relations. Although the investment is not large, it nevertheless reflects Afghanistan’s frustrations over port access as a landlocked state.Moreover, these investments are focused on construction and infrastructure. Buildings such as the 25-story high-rise Fakhar residential project indicate Kabul’s intentions to establish a long-term presence in the port city. Bigger players such as China and India are involved in developing two separate sides of the port, but the Afghan government is staking out its own claim to part of this space.With this strategic move towards development in Chabahar, Kabul will reduce its dependence on Pakistani ports to access global markets. This is important since bilateral relations with Islamabad are unlikely to improve anytime soon unless the Taliban government agrees to rein in terror elements that have targeted Pakistan. Second, there has been a flurry of talk recently about restarting the Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (CASA-1000), a <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/statement/2024/02/23/casa1000resumptionafghanistan#:~:text=What%20is%20CASA%2D1000%3F,%2C%20Tajikistan%2C%20Afghanistan%20and%20Pakistan." rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">$1.2-billion</a> plan to build a 1.227-kilometer power line from Central Asia to South Asia. The project would allow Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to sell excess energy to Afghanistan and Pakistan during the summer months.Work on this project was suspended after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021. If completed, the power line would enable Kabul to receive substantial transit fees and cheap hydropower.On <a href="https://amu.tv/86423/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">9 March</a>, the Taliban government announced that an agreement had been signed by stakeholders including Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The project had already been <a href="https://www.khaama.com/world-bank-to-restart-afghanistans-casa-1000-project/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">approved</a> by the World Bank in 2014 and 18 percent of the Afghanistan segment had already been completed. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid <a href="https://amu.tv/86423/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">stated</a> that with the World Bank’s support, the project would commence in April of this year. The other three countries involved have expressed <a href="https://www.khaama.com/world-bank-to-restart-afghanistans-casa-1000-project/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">concerns</a> to the World Bank about losing money in stranded assets in Afghanistan. However, the World Bank provided assurances that all construction payments and future revenue would be managed outside Afghanistan and would not involve the current Taliban government.<a href="https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/turkmen-afghan-ministers-seek-expansion-of-trade-ties-2023-12-19-23/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">In December 2023</a>, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan discussed the current state of projects connected to the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, a high-voltage power transmission line. Afghan Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hafiz Zia Ahmad stated that the foreign ministers of Afghanistan and Turkmenistan had visited a segment of the TAPI pipeline project in Afghanistan. Once complete, TAPI will connect Turkmenistan, Pakistan, and India via Afghanistan and transport 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas across 1830 kilometers. Afghanistan would receive 5 percent of the natural gas, while the remainder would be split equally between Pakistan and India. This would mean that Kabul could generate millions of dollars in transit fees.Lastly, talks have restarted about the <a href="https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/turkmen-afghan-ministers-seek-expansion-of-trade-ties-2023-12-19-23/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">Lapis Lazuli Corridor</a>. Former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani launched the corridor project in 2019; the route starts from the Torghondi border crossing in Herat Province and the Aqina crossing in the northern Faryab Province of Afghanistan. The corridor would connect land-locked Afghanistan to Europe via road, rail, and sea and pass through Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to reach Türkiye. Aiming to <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/revitalization-of-the-lapis-lazuli-corridor-from-afghanistan-to-europe/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">boost trade</a>, this route would also help improve the transportation infrastructure of all countries involved. Although the project’s development began in 2018 at the cost of $2 billion, progress remains erratic. Acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi <a href="https://tolonews.com/business-187604" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">said</a> during a visit to Turkmenistan last month that an agreement had been made with Turkmenistan on this matter. He said this meant that Afghanistan could now use the Lapis Lazuli Corridor, which would connect Afghanistan to Europe.Nevertheless, instability in Afghanistan remains a security risk for all transit projects across Central Asia, South Asia, and even Eurasia. Mitigating these risks has become crucial for the viability of all such endeavors, and Kabul must be included in these efforts. Ever since Russia launched its war on Ukraine, alternate transit routes such as the Lapis Lazuli Corridor and Middle Corridor have become a necessity.What does Kabul hope to achieve from this new regional coordination and outreach? What are its long-term plans? The Afghan Taliban government’s immediate goal is to garner international attention and recognition, since overcoming hurdles due to lack of regime legitimacy is a major concern. This would help to lift international sanctions and allow the Taliban regime to access to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/8/18/us-freezes-afghan-central-banks-assets-of-9-5bn" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">$9.5 billion</a> in central bank assets that were frozen by the US administration.Once these aims are achieved, Kabul will be able to emerge as a regional player. It will benefit from its vast energy reserves and geostrategic location as a stepping stone to Central Asia. At the same time, Afghanistan could become connected to Europe and participate in global trade.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Understanding Taliban's Geopolitical Maneuvers in the Region