Sabena Siddiqi‏‏

After a recent spate of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/16/iran-launches-airstrikes-on-sunni-militant-bases-in-pakistan" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">air strikes</a> from Tehran, Iran-Pakistan relations hit rock bottom. On 16 January, Iran attacked the Pakistani province of Baluchistan. Although Iran claimed to have destroyed terrorist strongholds, Pakistan said that the strike had killed two children. Islamabad swiftly broke off <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-recalls-ambassador-iran-after-airspace-violation-2024-01-17/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">diplomatic relations</a> with Tehran, recalled its ambassador, and advised the Iranian envoy, who was already in Iran at the time, to remain there. Two days later, Islamabad retaliated with precision airstrikes on <a href="https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-iran-air-force-strikes-638f2ee4ccfb1a56d26e8f28f7e91699" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">seven targets</a> across the border, resulting in nine casualties. For decades, militant activity and low-level insurgencies have troubled the border provinces of Baluchistan (in Pakistan) and Sistan and Baluchistan (in Iran). The 909-kilometer border between the two countries is a no man’s land winding through rough desert terrain. This sparsely-populated and poverty-ridden region provides ample opportunity for terrorist activities.Pakistan and Iran formed a <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-iran-to-set-up-joint-security-force-to-fight-cross-border-terrorism/4885966.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">joint border security force</a> two years ago to put an end to this menace through coordinated operations. However, Iran instead mysteriously chose to carry out unannounced unilateral air strikes on its neighbor. These strikes came at a time when Iran-Pakistan ties had never seemed better, following a meeting between Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian and Pakistani caretaker Prime Minister Anwar ul Haq Kakar during the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. Meanwhile, the two nations had just concluded joint naval exercises and bilateral trade at Iran’s Chabahar port.It is hard to understand Tehran’s motives for these unilateral airstrikes. The recent incidents mark the first direct attacks between the two countries and the first time Tehran has been targeted by missiles since the 1988 Iran-Iraq war. The Iranian strikes on Pakistan came after a <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/china-pakistan-iran-mediating-conflict/32787233.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">series of similar attacks</a> that Iran launched against Syria and Iraq. Iran has recently dealt with various terror attacks across the country; it remains unclear whether the strikes on Pakistan were intended as a show of force for the Iranian home front or to establish Tehran’s regional clout.Meanwhile, behind the scenes, China found itself in a quandary. Tehran’s sudden move had put Beijing on edge, given the latter’s long-term plans and high-value investments in both Iran and Pakistan. China <a href="https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/202401/t20240117_11228041.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">called</a> on both sides to exercise restraint and a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry drew attention to the need to de-escalate tensions to keep the region stable.China’s last-ditch mediation attempt the night before Pakistan launched its counterstrikes proved &nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1747720910935625784" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">unsuccessful</a>. Islamabad went ahead with the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68014882" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">airstrikes</a> on southeastern Iran to pursue its own national interests and reassert its policy of strategic deterrence.Within 48 hours, Iran and Pakistan had restored diplomatic ties. However, a dangerous red line in regional dynamics has been crossed <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/11/politics/us-strikes-houthis-yemen/index.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">as</a> chaos erupts elsewhere in the Middle East. As regional security erodes, China risks the potential freezing of its vast investments in the region. Beijing also seems to be losing its grip on Islamabad, which ignored the former’s advice.China and Iran have had a comprehensive strategic partnership in place <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/china-eurasia-iran-deal-middle-east-influence-reid-standish/31175565.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">since 2023</a>. Beijing also launched the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2015, as a flagship corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). CPEC starts in the Xinjiang region of China and continues through Pakistan to the deep-sea port of Gwadar in the province of Balochistan. If Tehran and Islamabad are in conflict, these tensions could obstruct further development of the BRI. Both Iran and Pakistan are important members of the initiative due to their strategic locations along the route. Moreover, Iran and Pakistan are both members of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The current rifts could undermine the organization’s so-called "Shanghai spirit." Conflict between SCO members could also undermine the organization’s credibility at a decisive juncture when it is trying to expand its global reach by having more countries join, including Saudi Arabia and Belarus.After Beijing facilitated a Riyadh-Tehran <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/does-chinas-role-in-saudi-iran-rapprochement-represent-a-new-order-.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">rapprochement</a> that resulted in a complete restoration of diplomatic ties, China also offered to help resolve the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/china-calls-concrete-roadmap-two-state-solution-solve-gaza-conflict-2023-11-30/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Gaza crisis</a>. However, Iran and Pakistan have repeatedly indicated that tensions between the two countries are a strictly bilateral matter, which leaves little space for China to navigate. As the Iran-Pakistan situation de-escalated, both sides indicated that they wanted to resume "<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/19/pakistan-to-conduct-national-security-review-amid-standoff-with-iran" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">brotherly relations</a>." However, the potential for another conflict cannot be ruled out due to Iran’s apparent new tendency for surprise attacks. The region remains troubled: As soon as Pakistan’s Ambassador Mudassir Tipu returned to Tehran, gunmen in the <a href="https://mofa.gov.pk/press-releases/statement-by-the-spokesperson-regarding-reports-of-a-terrorist-incident-killing-pakistani-nationals-in-iran?mission=Statements" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">city of Saravan</a> in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province killed nine <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20240127-unidentified-gunmen-in-iran-kill-several-foreign-nationals-near-pakistan-border" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Pakistani laborers</a>, only a week after the Iran-Pakistan standoff ended.&nbsp;

How is the Iran-Pakistan Recent Conflict Sparking Regional Concerns?