Asmaa El Safty‏‏

Amid a prevailing climate of instability and uncertainty regarding future strategic conditions, many countries are reassessing their security strategies to safeguard national stability, meet internal requirements, and recalibrate their external relationships. In this context, Japan has moved to revamp its national security strategy in line with shifts in the international system. Alongside increasing its defense spending, Tokyo has placed growing emphasis on boosting its land, air, and naval capabilities, while adopting a series of modernization, development, and restructuring policies—particularly within its Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF). These efforts come against the backdrop of what Japan characterizes as increasingly "hostile" maritime activities near its shores by China, North Korea, and Russia.Key Features of Japan’s Military ModernizationDespite the constraints imposed on Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force by Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution—which renounces war and permits only self-defense forces—the MSDF is undergoing a significant phase of modernization and transformation. This shift is driven by the ruling party’s intent to expand Japan’s defense role and respond to mounting regional challenges. The main features of this transformation can be outlined as follows:1. Additional Funding to Expand Japan’s Naval Fleet: In December 2025, the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi approved a record <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2025/12/japan-accelerates-defense-buildup-with-record-budget-and-expanded-unmanned-capabilities/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">defense budget for fiscal year 2026</a> totaling ¥9.04 trillion (approximately $58 billion). This marks the twelfth consecutive increase in defense spending and reflects a clear policy trend toward developing military capabilities.In terms of naval assets, the 2026 budget allocates additional funding to <a href="https://www.asianmilitaryreview.com/2026/03/flurry-of-launches-boosts-jmsdf-fleet-before-fiscal-year-ends-foc/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">expand the fleet</a>, including one Mogami-class frigate, two Sakura-class patrol vessels, one Taigei-class submarine, and one Awaji-class minesweeper.2. Easing Restrictions on the Defense Industrial Base: Japan’s defense industrial base has undergone notable modernization, with the government encouraging private-sector participation in military production. Companies such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have expanded capabilities in shipbuilding, missile production, and military aviation.At the same time, Japan has gradually relaxed arms export restrictions, including approving the export of Mogami-class frigates to Australia—marking a significant shift in long-standing defense export policy.3. Expanding Partnerships in Naval Defense Industries: Tokyo is seeking to <a href="https://chinaus-icas.org/research/japans-growing-maritime-defense-industry/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">advance shipbuilding technologies</a> and accelerate production timelines by expanding industrial cooperation, particularly with the United States. In 2025, Washington proposed the concept of dual-use vessels—commercial ships with potential military applications—to enhance joint production capacity in response to China’s growing naval power.Simultaneously, Japan is broadening defense ties with Europe, exploring cooperation opportunities with countries such as Finland, Sweden, and Germany in defense technology and infrastructure.4. Investment in Unmanned Systems: Japan’s 2026 defense budget places particular emphasis on unmanned systems under a new coastal defense initiative known as the <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2025/12/japan-accelerates-defense-buildup-with-record-budget-and-expanded-unmanned-capabilities/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">SHIELD</a> program. This project aims to develop a large fleet of unmanned platforms across air, surface, and underwater domains.The Ministry of Defense has announced plans to procure an unspecified number of small attack drones, ship-launched UAVs, multi-role unmanned surface vessels, and unmanned submarines for all three branches of the Self-Defense Forces—land, sea, and air.5. Structural Reorganization of Naval Forces: On March 23, 2026, Japan announced major structural reforms within the MSDF. The long-standing "Fleet Escort Force," established in 1961, was dissolved and replaced with a new "<a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/03/jmsdf-launches-fleet-surface-force-scrapping-decades-old-escort-fleet/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Fleet Surface Force</a>."&nbsp;The restructuring consolidates all surface combatants and mine warfare units under a unified command. It also reduces operational formations to three surface warfare groups, replacing the previous four escort fleets. While maintaining roughly the same number of ships and personnel, the new structure concentrates forces into fewer, more streamlined formations.6. Development of Aegis-Equipped Naval Platforms: Following the cancellation of the Aegis Ashore missile defense program in 2020, Japan launched a maritime-based Aegis system (<a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/03/japan-lays-keel-of-both-asev-missile-defense-ships/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ASEV</a>). Instead of fixed land installations, Tokyo opted for large naval platforms capable of continuous deployment at sea.In March 2026, construction officially began on two Aegis-equipped vessels. According to the Ministry of Defense, the first ship is expected to be launched in late 2026 and enter service in March 2028, with the second following approximately one year later, scheduled for commissioning in fiscal year 2027 and delivery in March 2029.7. Accelerated Procurement of Small Patrol Vessels: The MSDF has adopted a strategy to <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/03/japan-launches-third-and-fourth-sakura-class-opvs-for-jmsdf/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">accelerate the acquisition of small patrol vessels</a> to enhance maritime surveillance, particularly in response to expanding Chinese naval activity.Under the defense buildup program approved in December 2022, Japan plans to acquire 12 patrol vessels over roughly a decade. On March 13, 2026, Japan Marine United launched two vessels from the planned Sakura-class fleet.8. Establishment of a New Information Warfare Command: In March 2026, Japan also announced the <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/03/jmsdf-launches-fleet-surface-force-scrapping-decades-old-escort-fleet/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">creation of an Information Operations Command</a>, integrating intelligence, cyber, communications, and oceanographic functions.This command is designed to serve as an operational hub for intelligence, command-and-control, and reconnaissance systems (C4ISR), though it will not directly control ships or aircraft. Its primary objective is to address organizational fragmentation and enhance integration across military branches—particularly within naval operations, which are expected to play a critical role in responding to future external threats.9. Enhancing Maritime Strike Capabilities: Japan is rapidly <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2026/03/japan-should-help-sink-chinas-invasion-fleet.html#:~:text=Japan%20is%20already%20building%20the,before%20it%20reaches%20Taiwanese%20shores." rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">strengthening its maritime strike capabilities</a>. Tokyo signed a $2.4 billion contract to acquire 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles, including anti-ship variants.Additionally, its fleet of F-35 Lightning II aircraft—expected to reach approximately 150 units—will be equipped with Norwegian-made Joint Strike Missiles designed to sink naval targets.Japan is also developing its indigenous Type 12 anti-ship missile, which has reportedly been tested at ranges exceeding 1,000 kilometers.Key DriversThe principal drivers behind Japan’s naval modernization and restructuring efforts can be summarized as follows:1. Enhancing Responsiveness to Regional Security Challenges: Despite differing analytical assessments of Japan’s evolving maritime defense strategy, there is broad agreement that the reforms—described by the Japanese navy as a policy of "<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/from-4-flotillas-to-3-inside-the-japan-maritime-self-defense-forces-historic-overhaul/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">scrap and build</a>"—are aimed at constructing a more flexible, integrated, and information-centric naval force.This shift reflects Tokyo’s growing recognition that the security environment in the Indo-Pacific has become increasingly complex, necessitating a redesign of how naval power is structured and employed. For example, the restructuring of maritime forces is intended to improve decision-making speed, enhance combat readiness, and strengthen the ability to manage simultaneous crises—particularly in sensitive areas such as the Nansei Islands and surrounding waters.It also emphasizes the integration of conventional capabilities with intelligence and information-based systems to address the region’s evolving security challenges.2. Preparing for a Potential Confrontation with China: Against the backdrop of continued expansion in Chinese maritime activities in areas such as the South China Sea and around Taiwan —activity Tokyo views as increasingly assertive—Japan is advancing its naval capabilities to prepare for potential contingencies.As part of the Maritime Self-Defense Force restructuring, a new formation—the <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/03/jmsdf-launches-fleet-surface-force-scrapping-decades-old-escort-fleet/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Amphibious Operations and Mine Warfare Group</a>—has been established on Kyushu Island. This unit integrates mine countermeasure vessels, transport ships, and amphibious capabilities, with the helicopter destroyer JS Ise (DDH-182) serving as its command platform.The group is designed to operate in close coordination with the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade of the Ground Self-Defense Force, underscoring Japan’s efforts to enhance the defense of the Nansei island chain.3. Offsetting China’s Quantitative Naval Advantage Through Qualitative Strategies: According to Japan’s 2025 Defense White Paper, the Japanese <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/11/japans-jmu-launches-first-two-new-offshore-patrol-vessels-for-jmsdf/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">navy possessed</a> 51 destroyers and 22 submarines as of March 31, 2025. By contrast, China fielded 94 modern major surface combatants (destroyers and frigates) and 55 modern submarines—providing Beijing with growing capacity to expand operations in waters near Japan.In response, Japan’s maritime defense strategy prioritizes qualitative capability enhancements over numerical expansion. This includes a focus on smaller, highly maneuverable vessels that can be operated efficiently with reduced crew sizes, such as Mogami-class frigates and new Sakura-class patrol vessels.4. Hedging Against Potential Chinese Moves on Taiwan: Japan views the security of Taiwan as closely linked to its own national security. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi underscored this in November 2025, stating that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan could pose a <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2026/03/japan-should-help-sink-chinas-invasion-fleet.html#:~:text=Japan%20is%20already%20building%20the,before%20it%20reaches%20Taiwanese%20shores." rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">threat to Japan’s survival</a>.While she did not explicitly reference military intervention, the implication was clear, given that Japan’s 2015 security legislation allows the use of force in "survival-threatening situations"—even when Japan itself is not directly under attack. It is this legal framework in particular that underpins Tokyo’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its maritime defensive capabilities.5. Preparing for a Potential U.S. Strategic Retrenchment in Asia: Japan’s focus on expanding naval capabilities also reflects contingency planning for a possible scaling back of the security role of the United States in Asia.This helps explain Japan’s push to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, accelerate defense-industrial cooperation with partners such as Australia and India, and strengthen its own military capabilities—including <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/china-puts-export-curb-on-japan-firms-including-mitsubishi-heavy" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">counterstrike capabilities and maritime missile defense systems.</a>Overall, Japan is pursuing a broad-based strengthening of its defense capabilities, with a particular emphasis on naval power, amid expectations that maritime forces will play a central role in responding to potential external threats from China, North Korea, and Russia.At the same time, Tokyo is seeking to avoid placing the full burden of its defense on its primary security partner, the United States.However, this strategic reorientation faces several challenges—notably the significant financial costs involved—as well as domestic opposition from segments of Japanese society that remain wary of an expanded defense posture. Another potential roadblock comes from China, which has reacted negatively to Japan’s defense modernization efforts and related official statements, and which has hit back by adopting economic counter-measures against Japanese companies.

Japan’s Naval Buildup amid Rising Global Tensions