Karam Saeed‏‏

On May 15, 2025, Istanbul hosted the first in-person negotiations between Russia and Ukraine following a months-long stalemate that had persisted since February. This initiative reflects Turkey’s ambition to consolidate its role as a mediator in the ongoing Ukraine war. The selection of Istanbul as the venue for these talks underscores the trust placed in Ankara by both the warring parties and the international community. This trust stems from Turkey’s consistent and balanced diplomatic posture which has been evident since the conflict broke out in 2022. A defining example of this balanced diplomacy was Turkey’s pivotal role in brokering the July 2022 agreement on grain exports through the Black Sea corridor.In parallel with these developments, and beginning as early as the Trump administration, Ankara has engaged in sustained efforts to mediate a resolution to the crisis. These efforts aim to create a conducive environment for addressing mutual concerns and establishing common ground toward a just settlement. This approach placed Ankara as a reliable platform for dialogue. As the conflict continues to evolve, growing evidence suggests that Ankara has adopted a collaborative strategy with international stakeholders, extending beyond merely diplomatic and economic overtures to encompass the mobilization of regional and global support toward ending the war.A Balanced ApproachSince the onset of the war in 2022, Turkey’s diplomatic conduct has been marked by a balanced posture toward both Moscow and Kyiv. Several key factors highlight this posture:1- Western Endorsement of Turkish Mediation: Turkey’s mediating role has been met with robust support from Western powers, particularly the United States and European nations, especially following Ankara’s endorsement of Trump’s peace initiative. Washington has since underscored Turkey’s unique capacity to facilitate effective mediation. European capitals have likewise identified Ankara as the most suitable and trustworthy intermediary at this juncture. Accordingly, Western actors have moved beyond theoretical discussions of Turkey’s potential role and have actively encouraged Ankara to take the lead in facilitating direct negotiations. This attitude was echoed by the NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. He said, on May 15, 2025, that Turkey plays a vital role in the facilitating the peace process, citing its favorable relations with all relevant parties.2- Bilateral Confidence in Turkey’s Role: Turkey occupies a strategically competitive advantage in the eyes of both Russia and Ukraine, which has enabled a streamlined dialogue with each side for more than three years. This largely emerges from the relative trust accorded to Turkey by each party. Many Ukrainians and Russians consider Turkey an acceptable intermediary capable of facilitating balanced settlement. In both Kyiv and Moscow, Turkey provides an ideal environment for dialogue, thanks to its diplomatic initiatives over recent years. This perception was reinforced during the Istanbul negotiations of 2022, which achieved a significant breakthrough by resolving the Ukrainian grain export impasse with Russian support. Turkey has also facilitated the release of Ukrainian Azov Brigade prisoners in July 2023, who were handed over to President Zelensky during his official visit to Ankara.3- Highlighting the importance of diplomatic solutions: In contrast to many European states, which have advocated for coercive measures to address the crisis, Turkey has consistently prioritized the importance of dialogue between Moscow and Kyiv. Its strategy is rooted in fostering a conducive environment to resolve contentious issues between the two parties, thereby ensuring peace and the cessation of the war. This position is evident in Turkey’s public commitment to providing comprehensive diplomatic and political support to mediate an end to the conflict through peace negotiations. In mid-May 2025, the Turkish president reiterated that his country has the "will" to resume direct negotiations, noting that Turkey is ready to assist at every stage of the process.4- Adopting a Balanced Stance on the War: Since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict on February 14, 2022, Turkey has adhered to a notably balanced position. While consistently reaffirming its opposition to Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, Ankara has expressed its willingness to support Kyiv through the provision of weapons and drones. Meanwhile, Turkey has refused to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the Donbas region. Moreover, Ankara has refrained from aligning itself with Western sanctions against Moscow. Turkey has also deepened its engagement with Moscow in energy projects, bolstered trade exchanges, and advanced its peaceful nuclear program during the crisis, with the Russian company Rosatom overseeing Turkey’s Akkuyu nuclear power plant. This strategic has positioned Turkey to present itself as a potential mediator between Moscow and Kyiv.Multiple Motivations Several key factors underpin Turkey’s desire to play a mediating role in the Ukrainian crisis, as outlined below:1- Enhancing Turkey’s International Standing: By hosting the current negotiations, Turkey aims to enhance its international standing and diplomatic role, going beyond its contribution to the 2022 grain export agreement. Turkey benefits from both the United States and European nations support of its role as a mediator, which has given international weight to the Turkish role. The United Nations has also expressed its appreciation for Turkey’s diplomatic efforts, with the Secretary-General publicly commending Ankara for facilitating direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv. Concurrently, Turkey seeks regional and global backing for its post-Assad strategies in Syria. By highlighting its role in alleviating the Ukrainian crisis, the Turkish government appears keen to reshaping its image as a promoter of global peace.2- Mitigating Instability in the Black Sea: Turkey’s facilitation of direct negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv is inseparable from its security and strategic concerns. The ongoing conflict has exacerbated instability in the Black Sea region, posing significant risks to vital trade and energy corridors critical to Ankara. These developments have adverse repercussions for the Turkish economy. For Ankara, resolving the Ukrainian crisis is intrinsically linked to enhancing stability in the geopolitically vital Black Sea region, which serves as a linchpin for the secure transit of energy supplies and trade routes.3- Strengthening Relations with the Trump Administration: Turkey’s mediation efforts also serve to reaffirm its central role in U.S. security interests, and highlight its strategic importance within the Trump administration’s policy framework aimed at resolving the Ukrainian conflict. By positioning itself as a partner in line with U.S. policies supportive of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, Ankara seeks to strengthen bilateral relations with Washington and address unresolved issues, including Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet program and the need to expedite the approval of its acquisition of 40 advanced F-16 fighter jets from the United States. Additionally, Ankara seeks U.S. support for its actions in Syria, while capitalizing on its successful mediation in the Ukrainian conflict as a strategic asset to persuade Washington to reconsider its support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).4- Securing Strategic Interests with Moscow: Turkey’s drive to facilitate direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow is rooted in its desire to see the conflict resolved through peaceful means. Extending the duration of the war risks aggravating Ankara’s existing tensions with Moscow and could undermine the increasingly vital political, economic, and military ties between the two nations. Ankara fears disruptions in Russian natural gas supplies, as it heavily depends on Russian gas to meet its energy demands, a dependence that becomes especially precarious in light of Turkey’s refusal to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea, besides its ongoing military support for Ukraine. Russia also plays a pivotal role in Turkey’s tourism industry and serves as a key export market for Turkish agricultural goods. Furthermore, Ankara fears the negative repercussions of a Russia-Ukraine conflict on its current cooperation with Moscow in volatile regions such as Syria, Libya, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia.5- Overcoming Domestic Turkish Challenges: Domestically, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is grappling with a noticeable decline in public support. This downturn has been exacerbated by accusations leveled against President Erdogan, who is alleged to have orchestrated the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu following the latter’s announcement of his candidacy for the 2028 presidential election. Meanwhile, Turkey’s economic indicators have kept declining, while political polarization has deepened. These developments have led to increasing calls from within the country for early elections. Against this backdrop, Ankara views the direct negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv as a favorable opportunity for the ruling regime to cover up domestic failures and generate political capital that could help counter the rising momentum of domestic opposition forces.A Necessary ApproachIn conclusion, Turkey’s role as a mediator in the war in Ukraine is poised to gain prominence, supported by American and European endorsement of its efforts to end the war and address the intricate issues between Moscow and Kyiv. Turkey is expected to undertake all necessary measures to ensure the success of ongoing negotiations, as this endeavor constitutes a critical opportunity at the present juncture, either to elevate Turkey’s international standing or, at the very least, to leverage it as a strategic asset to secure domestic political gains.

Why Turkey is Interested in Mediating Between Moscow and Kyiv?