Sabena Siddiqi‏‏

Pakistani-Afghan ties have been paralyzed by frequent border tensions, a fresh wave of terror attacks in Pakistan this year, and the forcible expulsion of illegal Afghan migrants by Islamabad. The Taliban regime has not prevented armed fighters from crossing into Pakistan, with which Afghanistan shares an immense border—almost <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/pakistan-and-afghanistan" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">1510 miles (2430 km) along the</a> southern and eastern edge of Afghanistan. A terror network has gradually emerged in this region; the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/4/pakistan-kills-three-militants-foiling-attack-on-airbase" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">latest attack</a> last month targeted an airbase in Punjab. According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, there has been an <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/12/afghanistan-and-pakistan-trade-blame-as-key-border-crossing-remains-closed" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">80 percent</a> increase in attacks during the first half of 2023. Interim Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti stated that <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/11/3/why-am-i-being-sent-back-hurt-anger-for-afghans-pushed-out-by-pakistan" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">14 of the 24</a> suicide bombings in Pakistan this year were carried out by Afghan nationals.Pakistan was one of the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/12/afghanistan-and-pakistan-trade-blame-as-key-border-crossing-remains-closed" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">first three nations</a> to grant formal recognition to the previous Taliban government of 1996-2001, and also hosted the largest number of Afghan refugees during the 1970s -80s. However, Islamabad withheld recognition of the Taliban regime in 2021 after the withdrawal of US troops; no other country recognizes the regime.However, Islamabad’s stance sheds light on flaws in its long-term relation with Kabul. For example, the Taliban government has been unhappy with the lack of recognition and turned a blind eye to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), allowing the rebel organization to regroup. The TTP was founded in <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/17/talibans-ties-with-pakistan-fraying-amid-mounting-security-concerns" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">2007</a> and has carried out brutal attacks including in 2014 on the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Peshawar-school-massacre" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Army Public School</a> in Peshawar. Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar held Afghanistan directly responsible for a new terror wave in Pakistan. He indicated that there had been a 60 percent increase in terrorism and a <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/frayed-pakistan-afghanistan-bilateral-ties-face-new-challenge-with-expulsion-of-refugees/3048644" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">500 percent</a> increase in suicide attacks, which had claimed more than 2000 lives in Pakistan since the Taliban regime returned to power. In response, Islamabad sped up <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/frayed-pakistan-afghanistan-bilateral-ties-face-new-challenge-with-expulsion-of-refugees/3048644" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">the repatriation</a> of undocumented Afghan refugees, ignoring <a href="https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2386886/world" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">condemnation</a> of this move by human rights organizations and the United Nations. This created an emergency for Kabul, which was unprepared for the inflow of people. Around <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/31/thousands-of-afghan-refugees-fleeing-pakistan-as-deportation-deadline-looms" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">600, 000 to 800,000</a> Afghans had fled to Pakistan after the Taliban seized power; this wave of refugees was the most seriously affected by the current crisis.At the same time, sporadic gunfights following border closures have exacerbated matters further. Sealing <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/6/main-afghanistan-pakistan-border-crossing-closed-after-guards-exchange-fire" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">key border crossings</a> is another mark against the Taliban regime, since Afghanistan is a land-locked country.Islamabad blames the Taliban administration for giving coalitions of militant groups <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/frayed-pakistan-afghanistan-bilateral-ties-face-new-challenge-with-expulsion-of-refugees/3048644" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">safe havens</a> on Afghan soil. For its part, Kabul is in denial about this and has lashed out at Pakistan for sending back refugees.Mohammad Yaqoob, the acting Taliban defense minister, <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/frayed-pakistan-afghanistan-bilateral-ties-face-new-challenge-with-expulsion-of-refugees/3048644" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">threatened</a> Pakistan. He said: "Pakistan should assess the consequences of expelling Afghans," adding that this expulsion was unjust. Yaqoob urged Afghan migrants to move their resources to Afghanistan in order to strike a blow to the Pakistani economy. More than <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/news/stories/forced-returns-pakistan-deepen-afghanistan-s-humanitarian-crisis#:~:text=%E2%80%9CIn%2024%20hours%2C%20our%20lives,emergency%20assistance%20continues%20to%20grow." rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">350,000</a> Afghans have crossed into Afghanistan since the 31 October deadline set by the Pakistani government, creating a humanitarian crisis as winter nears. Caretaker Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/mishandling-afghan-refugees-can-adversely-affect-relations-kabul-tells-pakistan/3009616" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">defended</a> Pakistan’s right to expel illegal immigrants: "Whenever there was any problem, people would immigrate to Pakistan, take refuge in Pakistan and people of Pakistan would welcome it. But now I think it has been more than 40 years, so the government of Pakistan has taken a decision."Another low point in Pakistani-Afghan ties was the <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/2383768/us-dollars-disappear-from-market" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">severe shortage</a> of dollars in Pakistan due to a constant outflow to Afghanistan. Nearly <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-06/dollars-smuggled-from-pakistan-provide-lifeline-for-the-taliban" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">$5 million</a> USD per day was being sent to Afghanistan by traders, and which impacted Pakistan’s financial markets.&nbsp;Since the US and Europe had denied Kabul access to its foreign reserves, the inflow from Pakistan became a key source of support for Afghanistan.Although this dollar trail provided a lifeline for Kabul, it created serious issues in Pakistan since traders could not <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/dollar-shortage-traps-multinationals-profits-inside-pakistan-1.1980450" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">find enough foreign currency</a> to pay for imports. Dollar scarcity in Pakistan caused the exchange rate to shoot up, and led to worsening inflation since many essential items were imported. Ultimately, the Pakistani government took stringent steps to crack down on the illegal dollar stream. Afghanistan was once considered a form of "strategic depth" for Pakistan, but has now morphed into a kind of "hornet’s nest." Shaping policy in relation to the Taliban regime is no easy task, and Islamabad will have to remain firm while maintaining close connections, since diplomatic and economic isolation will only exacerbate the situation.The regime in Afghanistan lacks international legitimacy or external financial support, and any crisis there will only cause another exodus to Pakistan. The Pakistan Foreign Office has therefore announced that it will maintain a "<a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/2445814/pakistan-maintains-communication-channel-with-afghanistan-fo" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">channel of communication</a>" with Kabul despite the current state of affairs. At the same time, Islamabad has been <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/3/us-backs-direct-talks-between-pakistan-and-india-after-sharifs-statement" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">re-engaging</a> with the US on regional security threats. General Michael Erik Kurilla, who leads the United States Central Command, met with Pakistan’s army chief in August to discuss defense cooperation.

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