Dr. Ahmed Abdel Aleem Hassan‏‏

The development of AI-powered "drone swarms" is reshaping the current understanding of warfare due to their low cost and the ability of hundreds of them to pose an existential threat to state armies. Advanced militaries are largely capable of countering individually operated drones. However, swarms of drones deployed for specific objectives during military battles or ongoing conflicts present a significant challenge to armies and the concept of military deterrence.Drone swarms involve the coordination of at least three drones, up to hundreds, operating simultaneously to execute tasks collaboratively. Currently, drone swarms are being developed through advanced and complex algorithms, coupled with local sensing and communication technologies to synchronize the drones. They can be controlled through pre-programmed missions, central control from a ground station, or AI technologies that teach the swarm to respond to new and unexpected situations instantly, accurately, and in a coordinated manner.Indicators of InterestSeveral indicators show the growing interest of states and non-state armed actors in acquiring advanced drone swarms, as follows:1. Startups developing drone swarms in Ukraine: In July 2024, some Ukrainian startups revealed the development of AI systems capable of operating a massive fleet of drone swarms. Kyiv hopes this will help achieve a qualitative edge in its confrontation with Russia, particularly in electronic warfare tasks and precision targeting of military installations and oil refineries located hundreds of kilometers inside Russian territory.The development of AI-powered drone swarms is divided into visual systems for target identification, mapping systems for flight guidance, and complex software enabling drones to operate as a cohesive swarm in executing specific military objectives. The "Styx" system is one of the most prominent systems linking drone swarms with AI, being tested for reconnaissance and targeting adversaries, whether in the air or on the ground. The system also excels in coordinated planning of swarm movements and protecting operators near the front lines.2. U.S. Military Interest in "Hybrid Drone Swarms": Western reports in May 2024 revealed a collaboration between two American companies to operate mixed drone swarms using advanced technology within a system known as "Hive." This system operates with minimal human intervention, allowing for the launch, retrieval, and recharging of drone swarms with the push of a button. It also manages various types of drones for diverse missions.Additionally, the U.S. Department of Defense has signed at least five military contracts to develop advanced technology drone swarms, with Washington primarily focusing on enhancing the combat and reconnaissance capabilities of these drones. One of the key developments in this regard is the "Replicator" program, which aims to produce large numbers of low-cost drones to provide immediate and effective military support in wars and military battles. Among the most notable drones is the "XQ-58," which can make decisions independently of human direction, relying on advanced algorithms such as "Particle Swarm Optimization" and "Ant Colony Optimization," enabling the swarms to operate with high coordination and efficiency in executing complex tasks.3. International Competition in Developing "Smart Drone Swarms": Drone swarms are classified into three categories. The first category involves a group of drones coordinated by operators. The second involves drones operating individually with limited human control. The third category consists of smart drone swarms that can communicate among themselves via AI technologies and respond to threats. According to the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), smart swarm technologies are expected to be tested on more than 150 drones by 2027, amid global interest in these technologies, with countries like China, Russia, India, the United Kingdom, and even Turkey showing keen interest.It's important to note that AI technologies grant smart drone swarms the ability to operate independently and collaborate without direct human intervention through machine learning and deep learning algorithms. This includes the ability to coordinate attacks and respond to threats or challenges that arise in the swarm's operational environment quickly and systematically.4. Non-State Armed Actors Employing "Kamikaze Drone Swarms": In June and July 2024, Lebanon's Hezbollah carried out attacks with kamikaze drone swarms on Israeli military positions, resulting in casualties among Israeli soldiers. This raises questions about the possession of such advanced technologies by non-state armed actors, in addition to the failure of air defenses in countries with significant military capabilities to intercept drone swarms, potentially leading to a redefinition of modern warfare in the near future.According to estimates by MarketsandMarkets, the military drone market is expected to reach $447.2 million by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 40.47%. This significant growth indicates a promising global market, driven mainly by the use of drone swarms for intelligence gathering, reconnaissance, and targeting adversaries, potentially revolutionizing military tactics and capabilities worldwide.Challenges of Drone SwarmsAdvanced technologies associated with military drone swarms face several challenges, which can be outlined as follows:1. The "Uncontrolled Proliferation" Dilemma: AI-powered drone swarm technologies may be relatively easy for some states, non-state armed actors, or terrorist organizations to acquire due to their low cost and high effectiveness. This could lead to a revolution in terrorism and transnational crime, as well as increased threats in conflict zones, potentially leading to further instability in different regions of the world.2. Concerns Over "Unintentional Escalation" in Conflict: The use of drone swarms in conflict zones could lead to unintentional escalation due to errors in executing commands, either due to human intervention or technical failures. This could significantly impact nuclear deterrence, security, and strategic stability in future wars. Developments in these AI-linked systems for employing drone swarms could lead states to delegate decision-making to these systems, creating numerous global threats and risks due to the current limitations of AI, such as system fragility and the difficulty in interpreting their decisions.3. Difficulty in Preventing a "Drone Swarm Arms Race": Despite the verbal agreement between the U.S. and Chinese presidents in November to establish working groups on AI safety, this has not prioritized preventing an arms race related to AI-powered drone swarms. With both countries racing to develop advanced drone swarm technologies and declining trust between them, it's unlikely that there will be an organized international effort to prevent an arms race related to drones in general and drone swarms in particular. This is especially true given the United Nations' failure to play a significant role in this regard, having spent a decade trying to strengthen efforts to prevent drone proliferation, including restrictions such as banning civilian targeting or ethnic cleansing, but to no avail.4. Ethical Questions Regarding Drone Swarm Use: Ethical concerns are raised about employing drone swarms in wars or targeting adversaries, particularly regarding the potential use of random methods or insufficient measures to protect civilians in conflict zones. The use of drones should comply with the Geneva Conventions, which regulate the protection of civilians. Some argue that clear protocols are necessary to determine legal responsibility for drone employment. According to some estimates, by 2023, about 19 countries have conducted airstrikes using drones in various parts of the world, a trend expected to increase in the near future.5. Enhancing Cybersecurity for Drone Swarms: One of the tasks of drone swarms involves collecting information about their surroundings, necessitating protocols to protect the collected and stored data, such as images, videos, or audio recordings of individuals, to prevent them from being hacked by adversaries. Additionally, there is a need to ensure that drones are not hijacked by entities that pose a threat to global security, such as militias, terrorist organizations, or separatist groups, given the potential for their misuse within and across states.In conclusion, the world is on the brink of a revolution driven by AI in military affairs, particularly concerning advanced technology drone swarms capable of changing the face of modern warfare. This is especially true with the decline in human intervention and the increasing capabilities and tasks associated with drone swarm technologies, amid expectations of an escalating arms race among major and middle powers to acquire drone swarms in the near future.

How Drone Swarms Can Change Modern Warfare