Bilal Gamal 

In a turbulent political landscape with profound shifts in the balance of power in Africa, Sahel region leaders seek to strengthen their relations with multiple external powers. On June 22, 2025, the head of the Malian military council, General Assimi Goita, visited Moscow, leading a ministerial delegation and members of the transitional council, following an invitation by Russian President Vladimir Putin. In an effort to advance bilateral relations between the two countries, Goita and Putin held a meeting on June 23, 2025, to enhance cooperation between Moscow and Bamako in various fields, including security and energy, in addition to&nbsp;investments, trade and economic cooperation. Both parties have also discussed a range of regional and international developments.Key DriversThere are several intertwined factors that prompted the Russian president and the head of the Malian military council to meet at this time. These can be summarized as follows:1- Mali's need for Russian support in counterterrorism: Goita's visit comes at a time when Mali is suffering from a security crisis fueled by militants linked to the terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS. In addition to other terrorist groups, the scope of terrorist attacks has expanded in recent weeks, targeting Malian army camps and checkpoints. In early June 2025, at least 30 soldiers were killed at the Boulkessi base in central Mali in an armed attack launched by the Al-Qaeda-affiliated group Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)Recently, Al-Qaeda has strengthened its influence in southern Mali, approaching the capital, Bamako, amid growing fears that the organization is seeking to control it. This comes amid growing concerns about the possibility of the ruling military regime collapsing, especially after JNIM issued a statement in June 2025 calling for the establishment of what it called a "legitimate government" formed by the Malians, away from the army and Russia. It described it as an "invading and occupying state," coinciding with the organization's strengthening of its influence in areas near Bamako and its control of military bases in the south of the country. This may have prompted Goita to visit Moscow, perhaps seeking Putin's support in securing his rule in the face of terrorist threats. Goita seeks to enhance support from Russia and coordinate on a strategy to counter security threats in the north of the country.2- Strengthening the Russo-Malian strategic alliance: Goita's visit to Moscow comes amid a continued deterioration in relations between Mali and France, following the withdrawal of French forces from the country and Goita's reduction of cooperation with Paris. This visit conveys a clear message to Paris and Washington. It&nbsp;underlines Mali's attempts to diversify its strategic alliances by strengthening relations with Russia, which has become an important partner for Bamako. This became especially important when Goita and Putin signed new agreements during this visit in various areas, most notably security and economics. On the other hand, Mali’s moves may raise concerns among Western powers, who view this visit as an opportunity for Moscow to redraw the map of Russian influence in Africa.3- Transforming Mali into a regional gold refining hub: Goita's visit to Moscow comes just a week after he laid the foundation stone for a new gold refinery project, being built by the Russian company Yadran, which will have a mining capacity of approximately 200 tons per year. This refinery is likely to contribute to making Mali a regional hub for refining gold extracted in West Africa, according to company president Eric Salikhov. Furthermore, the project is likely to contribute to strengthening Mali's control over its resources. Despite the gains Mali reaps through this partnership, reports indicate that it also represents a real opportunity for Moscow, as Russia seeks to leverage its presence in the country and exploit Mali's mineral resources.4- Russia's desire to strengthen its infuence in West Africa: Putin's invitation to the head of Mali's military council to visit Moscow may reflect his aspirations to strengthen Russia's strategic position in West Africa. Reports indicate that the Russian president will use his meeting with Goita to confirm Moscow's full commitment to supporting Mali as a strategic ally. To bolster its image as an alternative power to the West, it offers support without political conditions that would upset the military regime. This represents a real opportunity for Moscow to consolidate its position as a major player in the Sahel region, granting it increased influence in the region in an attempt to compensate for its waning influence in the Middle East, particularly Syria.Significant ResultsThe meeting between Goita and Putin has yielded significant results, including the signing of various agreements in multiple fields, which can be reviewed as follows:1- Establishing a government committee for economic and technical cooperation: As part of strengthening bilateral cooperation between Moscow and Bamako, Goita and Putin signed several agreements that contribute to advancing their ties. The most prominent of these agreements include the establishment of a Russian-Financial government committee for trade, economic, scientific, and technical cooperation, with the aim of deepening exchanges between the two countries and encouraging the establishment of joint projects that serve the interests of both countries. In the medium and long term, this committee will pave the way for Russian investment in key development sectors in Mali, while facilitating Bamako's access to new Russian markets. It may also encourage increased Russian support for Mali's positions in international organizations. 2- Signing an agreement on peaceful nuclear energy: In line with his statements regarding the existence of "promising areas of cooperation" between Mali and Russia, Putin signed an agreement with Goita on the "peaceful use of nuclear energy" in partnership with the Russian state-owned company Rosatom. This follows previous discussions between the two parties regarding the construction of a Russian-designed nuclear power plant in Bamako as a strategic energy project for Mali.This partnership is likely to provide a structural response to the energy crisis facing Bamako, through the development of appropriate infrastructure and transferring skills and technologies, and training national cadres in Mali. This agreement is also likely to contribute to strengthening Mali's energy independence and reducing its dependence on foreign imports, especially since it will significantly contribute to promoting industrial development in the country and supporting national energy sovereignty.3- Concluding an agreement to regulate bilateral relations: Putin and Goita signed a third agreement defining the foundations of bilateral relations between Mali and Russia. This agreement embodies a shared desire to establish a lasting strategic partnership based on mutual respect and non-interference in each other's internal affairs, in addition to solidarity in international forums. This agreement paves the way for enhanced cooperation in the security field, particularly in combating terrorism and organized crime. This became more apparent following the Russian Defense Minister’s statement during his meeting with his Malian counterpart that "the priority of our partnerships is to achieve tangible results in strengthening security and sovereignty," paving the way for enhanced joint military cooperation.4- Upgrading cooperation to a strategic level: These agreements represent a major turning point in the level of relations between Moscow and Bamako, as they reflect a political will on both sides to raise cooperation between Mali and Russia to a strategic level. This indicates a stronger bilateral cooperation between the two countries in various fields in the coming period. Measures will be undertaken to implement these agreements, and further opportunities for cooperation and investment in Mali will be explored.Future ImplicationsThis visit is expected to have repercussions on the future of Russian-Malian cooperation, as well as Moscow's influence in West Africa and the future of the situation in the Sahel region. This can be summarized as follows:1- Building a nuclear power plant in Mali: The agreement signed during the visit between Putin and Goita, which concerns the "peaceful use of nuclear energy," paves the way for the possibility of building a nuclear power plant in Bamako with Russian support. This strengthens Russia's presence in the country through infrastructure projects. On the other hand, it contributes to addressing Mali's energy crisis, especially given the growing potential for this project to enhance the country's energy independence.2- Potentially establishing a Russian military base in Mali: The strengthening of the rapprochement between Mali and Russia reflects the increasing likelihood that the latter will build a military base in Mali, in parallel with its keenness to expand the scope of the role played by Russia's "African Corps." Especially with multiple reports indicating the entry of large convoys of Russian military supplies into Mali during 2025. The replacement of Wagner by the "Africa Corps" may reflect a shift in security relations between Russia and Mali toward greater institutional cooperation. This foreshadows the possibility of establishing a military base, especially considering Mali's growing desire to deepen military cooperation with Russia.3- Algeria's growing fears of a Russian-Malian rapprochement: Goita's visit to Moscow, as a key link in the rapprochement between the two countries, is likely to raise growing concerns in Algeria. A report indicated that the growing rapprochement between Moscow and Bamako places Algeria outside any new equation being built in the Sahel region, despite its repeated attempts to play a regional role. This role manifests in supporting separatist groups in northern Mali, which Bamako considers "hostile behavior," or through attempts to form a Maghreb-Sahelian axis in which it would assume leadership, despite the reservations or rejection of this approach by some neighboring countries.It is noteworthy that the expansion of Russian influence in the Sahel region, and the rise of a new axis led by new rulers in the region, is likely to confuse Algeria's calculations, as this growing rapprochement could pose a threat to the Algerian regime, which is facing worsening internal crises. Accumulating political and social challenges may reopen sensitive issues such as "the Kabyle Organization" and the situation in the Tindouf camps, in addition to what has been described as the "failure" of the Algerian regime's policies in its African neighborhood.Convergent InterestsIn light of the above, there seems to be an accelerating Russian-Malian rapprochement, as the visit of the head of the Malian Military Council to Russia carried prominent political and strategic messages. Russia seeks to expand its influence in Africa, taking advantage of the vacuum left by traditional Western powers in the region, particularly France. This coincides with Mali's efforts to diversify its strategic alliances globally, in light of the region's geopolitical shifts. In addition to its efforts to contain escalating terrorist attacks. It also seeks Russian technical support in the field of nuclear energy.

What Does the Malian Military Leader’s Visit to Russia Signify?