Dr. Mona Soliman‏‏

In a message from prison on March 31, 2026, Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/war-on-terror/pkks-leader-affirms-no-turning-back-from-terror-free-turkiye" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">denied</a> that any dispute exists with the Turkish state, affirming what he described as the "end of armed struggle" by his group. This followed remarks by a Kurdish official indicating that the Turkish government has begun procedures to modify his detention conditions, including transferring him from his prison on Imrali Island to a new complex on the island that is expected to serve as his residence.This development represents a "turning point" in the peace process launched in Turkey more than a year ago. It has coincided with renewed commitments by Recep Tayyip Erdogan to continue the peace process in pursuit of a "terror-free Turkey." Despite these positive developments, the process continues to face several challenges, most notably internal divisions within Turkey over how to deal with the PKK, the impact of regional dynamics, and Ankara’s insistence on linking progress in the peace process to the resolution of issues with regional Kurdish groups—an approach that may complicate its implementation in the near term.Mutual DriversOn October 22, 2024, Devlet Bahceli, head of Turkey’s Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key partner in the ruling People’s Alliance with the Justice and Development Party (AKP), <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-turkey-and-armed-kurdish-groups" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">called</a> on the Kurdish government to address the Kurdish issue. This was met with a response from Ocalan—who has been serving a life sentence since 1999—through what was described as a historic statement issued on February 27, 2025, in which he called for the disarmament of his group and a transition toward political engagement.The Turkish government welcomed this step and formed the "Imrali delegation," which includes Pervin Buldan and Mithat Sancar from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party, along with lawyer Faik Ozgur Erol. The delegation conducts weekly visits to Ocalan to negotiate with him and convey his messages to the Turkish government regarding the peace process.Several drivers may support progress in this track, including:1. Erdogan’s Commitment to Continuing the Peace Process: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/turkiye-taking-bold-responsibility-with-terror-free-process-president-erdogan/3833841" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reaffirmed</a> on March 10, 2026 his commitment to continuing the peace process to achieve a "terror-free Turkey." He indicated that parliament will discuss legal frameworks and take steps toward dissolving the PKK, citing progress in overcoming several challenges related to this issue.Erdogan also praised the integration agreement of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into Syrian state institutions, noting that this development has helped alleviate Turkish security concerns—particularly given Ankara’s view of the SDF’s links to the PKK. This position reflects sustained political support from Erdogan for the peace process, potentially enabling him to secure domestic political gains and expand his electoral base by attracting Kurdish voters, who account for approximately 10% of the electorate in Turkey.2. Ocalan’s Call for "Democratic Integration": Ocalan <a href="https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/902060/%C3%B6calan-message-to-be-read-at-diyarbakir-newroz-celebration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">issued</a> a message on March 21, 2026, marking Nowruz (the Kurdish New Year), and addressed to all stakeholders in Turkey’s peace process. In this message, he called for advancing "democratic integration," emphasizing that the Kurdish issue has both security and political dimensions and stressing the need to achieve "democratic unity within a comprehensive governance framework."He also reaffirmed his commitment to the peace process initiated by his earlier call to disarm and dissolve the PKK, and transition into lawful political activity. Ocalan links the disarmament of the group to its integration into Turkey’s political and social life, alongside the granting of a general amnesty to its armed members for acts classified as "terrorist" under Turkish law.3. Legislative Support for the Peace Process: On August 5, 2025, the Turkish parliament established the "National Solidarity, Brotherhood, and Democracy Committee" to develop the legal framework for the peace process. The committee includes 51 members from 11 political parties and is chaired by Numan Kurtulmus.On February 18, 2026, the committee <a href="https://thenewregion.com/posts/4999" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">approved</a> a report outlining proposals for legal frameworks and democratic reforms required to facilitate the dissolution and disarmament of the PKK. The report is set to be reviewed by a security committee comprising representatives from the Ministries of Defense and Interior, as well as the Turkish intelligence agency, to verify disarmament before being submitted to the president for final approval.4. Calls to Modify Ocalan’s Detention Status: Tuncer Bakırhan <a href="https://www.intellinews.com/beyond-the-bosporus-turkey-builds-house-for-pkk-leader-ocalan-on-prison-island-imrali-434478/?source=iraq" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">revealed</a> that steps are underway to modify Ocalan’s detention conditions, including transferring him from prison to a form of house arrest on Imrali Island. This represents a compromise between Kurdish demands for his release and the Turkish government’s reluctance, given public sensitivity surrounding his conviction on terrorism-related charges.Bakırhan indicated that the government plans to construct a residential complex on the island, including a house and office where Ocalan could receive political and media delegations and present his vision for the peace process and the future of the Kurdish issue.The Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party has repeatedly called for changes to Ocalan’s status, arguing that he has become a key regional actor, with influence extending to Kurdish groups in Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Iraq. Notably, his release would require legal amendments <a href="https://turkishminute.com/2025/10/17/ocalan-urges-turkey-to-implement-right-to-hope-calling-it-vital-for-thousands-of-inmates/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">based on</a> the "right to hope" principle established by the European Court of Human Rights in 2014, which allows for the release of individuals serving aggravated life sentences after 25 years.The potential release of Abdullah Ocalan could accelerate the peace process and signal the Turkish government’s commitment to integrating Kurds and former PKK members into Turkish society. In this context, Ocalan has also expressed interest in establishing a new Kurdish political party that could emerge as a primary representative of the Kurdish community within Turkey’s political system, potentially forming alliances with ruling forces—an outcome that could provide additional momentum and strengthen prospects for electoral gains in upcoming elections.Future ChallengesThe "peace process" represents a central political objective for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, aimed at ending what is described as the "Kurdish threat"—an objective that successive Turkish governments have failed to achieve since 1982. Progress on this front could strengthen Erdogan’s domestic standing ahead of the next presidential elections scheduled for 2028. However, the process faces several key challenges, including:1. Domestic Divisions Over Ocalan’s Release: Since the launch of the peace process, Turkish society has been divided over its direction, both in parliament and in the court of public opinion. Parties within the ruling coalition have supported the initiative, most notably Devlet Bahceli, who has called for the release of Abdullah Ocalan.In contrast, opposition nationalist <a href="https://aawsat.com/%D8%B4%D8%A4%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%A5%D9%82%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9/5254782-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D9%88%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AF" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">parties</a> have strongly criticized this approach. Musavat Davutoglu condemned Bahceli’s initiative, describing reconciliation with the Kurds and the authorization of Nowruz celebrations this year as a "threat to the symbols of the Turkish Republic." Similarly, Umit Ozdag argued that <a href="https://aawsat.com/%D8%B4%D8%A4%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%A5%D9%82%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9/5244406-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%81-%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%BA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AD-%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D8%A3%D9%88%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%AF-27-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%8B-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%AC%D9%86" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">releasing</a> Ocalan would "undermine the concept of the nation-state and the Turkish nation."These positions have been accompanied by protests opposing the peace process and the potential release of PKK members accused of involvement in terrorist activities against Turkish citizens. Such criticism may negatively affect the process, as warned by Numan Kurtulmus, who stated that the failure of the peace process could lead to the collapse of civilian life and a resurgence of PKK activity.2. Ambiguity Surrounding the Phases of the Peace Process: Tuncer Bakirhan has <a href="https://www.intellinews.com/beyond-the-bosporus-turkey-builds-house-for-pkk-leader-ocalan-on-prison-island-imrali-434478/?source=iraq" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">called</a> on the Turkish government to present a clear "roadmap" for the next steps in the peace process, following criticism from the Kurdish leadership regarding lack of clarity over its implementation.This ambiguity reflects a <a href="https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/after-pkk-peacebuilding-challenges-turkey-syria" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">difference</a> in priorities between the PKK and the Turkish government. Ankara insists on verifying the disarmament of PKK elements in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and dissolving all military structures before proceeding with political and legal measures, including reintegration into civilian life and granting amnesty to individuals not involved in terrorist acts.By contrast, Kurdish actors emphasize the need to first secure Ocalan’s release and adopt the necessary legal frameworks for the peace process, followed by full disarmament. This disagreement over sequencing remains one of the most significant obstacles to progress, even though the process has already been underway for over a year.3. Continued Crackdown on Kurdish Actors: The Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party <a href="https://stockholmcf.org/istanbul-court-jails-9-for-spreading-pkk-propaganda-in-probe-of-kurdish-nevruz-celebrations/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">organized</a> Nowruz celebrations this year across 53 locations in Turkey, with gatherings calling for Ocalan’s release. At the same time, Turkish security forces arrested 38 individuals who participated in celebrations in Istanbul, along with dozens more in Diyarbakir in southeastern Turkey, on charges of "promoting a terrorist organization." A court in Istanbul sentenced nine individuals to prison.These actions reflect a broader pattern of arrests and legal measures, including the dismissal of elected Kurdish mayors and the appointment of government trustees, as well as the continued detention of Kurdish politicians on charges of links to the PKK. Such practices raise questions about the credibility of the Turkish government’s commitment to the peace process, particularly its core pillars of granting Kurds equal political and social rights.4. Demands to Address Regional Kurdish Armed Groups: Turkey is <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/turkiye-thwarts-israeli-plan-to-employ-kurds-in-war-against-iran" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">pressing</a> Ocalan to influence Kurdish armed groups across Iraq, Syria, and Iran—viewed by Ankara as extensions of the PKK—and to encourage them to disarm, given their perceived threat to Turkish national security.Turkish sources have indicated that Ankara has signaled the possibility of a ground military intervention in northern Iraq to target camps of the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), an Iranian Kurdish group affiliated with the PKK, should it launch attacks inside Iran. Ocalan reportedly sent a message to PJAK leaders warning against such actions, which contributed to their decision to refrain from escalation.Turkey has previously conducted cross-border operations in Iraq and Syria between 2016 and 2020 against PKK elements and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). At present, Ankara is closely monitoring developments related to U.S. military operations against Iran, particularly their potential impact on Iran’s internal dynamics and the possibility of expanded political gains for Kurdish groups—an outcome that Turkey remains cautious about.Overall, the peace process in Turkey appears to be entering a new phase in its contemporary history, with the potential to address the longstanding "Kurdish dilemma" that has posed a challenge to Turkish national security.Despite the challenges ahead—particularly evolving regional dynamics—both Turkish and Kurdish leadership appear committed to advancing the process in pursuit of their respective political objectives. For Abdullah Ocalan, the process represents a critical opportunity that could lead to his release and strengthen his political role as a representative of the Kurdish issue across multiple regional arenas.For Recep Tayyip Erdogan, success in this process is closely tied to achieving his political goals and eliminating the Kurdish threat, which could enhance his popularity and position Turkey as a model of counterterrorism and social stabilization, ultimately reinforcing its regional standing.

What Challenges Does the Kurdish Issue Face Within Turkey?