InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis held a panel discussion titled "The Case of Tel Aviv: Domestic and Foreign Policy Transformations in Israel". The panel featured Saeed Okasha, an Expert at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, Egypt. It analyzed key domestic shifts in Israel following the attacks of October 7, 2023, and the repercussions of these developments on the political, security, and social landscape. Additionally, the panel highlighted the most prominent future scenarios and potential outcomes for the ongoing war.Domestic Challenges Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip erupted amid escalating internal political and security crises, which the war further intensified. The keynote speaker outlined these as follows:1- An Intensified Judicial Reform Crisis: The war deepened the crisis that began immediately after the Netanyahu government adopted the judicial reform plan in February 2023. This plan brought the country to the brink of internal conflict between supporters of the ruling right and their counterparts loyal to the opposition parties. The crisis manifested itself in sustained mass protests over several months, along with street clashes between supporters of the ruling right and those of the opposition. Calls for civil disobedience from various sectors of society intensified, posing a significant threat to economic stability. Defense and intelligence establishments also intervened indirectly in the crisis, jeopardizing the principle that has governed civil-military relations since the foundation of Israel: civilian control over the military.In addition, the crisis posed a threat to the democratic system that Israel presents as the ‘region’s only democracy’ in the Middle East. The ruling coalition relied on a narrow parliamentary majority to implement radical changes to the values and objectives guiding public policy, marginalizing nearly half the electorate that represents nearly half the population. Following the outbreak of the war with Hamas and its expansion to additional conflict fronts, including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and unrest in the West Bank and tensions with Iran, the judicial reforms were halted.2- Escalating Political Disputes within the Israeli Government: Following the outbreak of the war, the ruling sought to project national unity against the so-called "existential threat" (a threat to the very survival of the state), but it was not successful. The speaker pointed to the increasing tensions between the ruling coalition and the unity government. This led to the latter's dissolution in June 2024, following early calls for the establishment of a commission of inquiry to investigate the failure to predict Hamas's intentions. Additionally, calls from some opposition parties to bring down the coalition and call for early elections intensified.3- Strained Civil-Military Relations: A severe political rupture emerged between Netanyahu and both his coalition partners and unity government allies, as well as his partners in the national unity government. This crisis stemmed from several factors, including Netanyahu's attempt to blame the failure on the military and intelligence agencies, as well as his disregard for the urgent calls from the military and his partners in the national unity government to formulate a vision for the future of the Gaza Strip after the end of the war.In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clashed with the military over the formation of an internal investigative commission by Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi to examine the causes of the failure that occurred on March 7, 2023. Furthermore, there have been ongoing disagreements between Netanyahu and both the military and intelligence agencies over the management of the hostage crisis. This led to the dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in September 2024 and the resignation of several military leaders, including the Chief of Staff, in January 2025, in protest of Netanyahu's handling of the hostage crisis and his unclear intentions especially his ambiguous stance to concluding the Gaza conflict.4- Increasing Fragility of the Netanyahu Government: According to the keynote speaker, if the war against Gaza continues and efforts are made to deter the Houthis, Netanyahu’s position may be bolstered by the return of Otzma Yehudit ministers, thus diminishing the chances of the former’s removal from power. However, if Israel concludes the war rapidly with Hamas and forces it to leave the Gaza Strip into exile, Israeli public opinion is expected to push for early elections and call on whoever forms the next government to establish a national commission of inquiry to investigate the failures of the government, the military, and the security agencies. Therefore, it can be said that Netanyahu's era will be approaching its end in this scenario.5- Naftali Bennett Potentially Becoming the New Prime Minister: The keynote speaker explained that if Netanyahu were to leave power, the most probable alternative would be right-wing parties, which polls predict will secure more than 62 seats. The most likely candidate to head the right-wing bloc is former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, a representative of the religious Zionist movement. However, if Bennett fails to lead the right-wing front, Israel may return to the political deadlock that has plagued it for more than three years, following four consecutive elections, from 2019 to the end of 2022, which failed to produce an elected Israeli government and a stable coalition.External IssuesWhen Benjamin Netanyahu returned to power after the November 2022 elections, he had to formulate a foreign policy that addressed six core issues. These issues remain the focus of Israeli foreign policy today, alongside the ongoing multi-front war. The keynote speaker outlined these issues as follows:1- Obstacles to Targeting Iranian Nuclear Facilities: The keynote speaker explained that since the signing of the nuclear agreement between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, along with Germany, in 2015, Israel has strongly opposed the agreement and called for its cancellation. This opposition achieved partial success in 2018 when President Trump announced the United States' withdrawal from the agreement. However, Trump's re-imposition of stringent sanctions against Iran did not force Iran to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Instead, Iran continued its enrichment activities, achieving ‘threshold nuclear’ capability.Several obstacles have emerged in Israel's efforts to target the Iranian nuclear program, most notably: the geographically dispersed nature of the nuclear project's facilities, some of which are difficult to hit due to their location in rugged mountainous terrain and their hardened underground sites. Furthermore, the United States has refused to allow Israel to launch a unilateral strike against Iran, in addition to its opposition to putting a military option on the table. Washington has also refused to provide Israel with in-flight refueling aircraft and to sell heavy bombs suitable for carrying out such a strike.However, after dealing a powerful blow to Iran's defense system, Israel has become capable of targeting the Iranian nuclear program, particularly with Trump's return to the White House. Trump is expected to pressure Iran with two options: either amend the agreement to completely prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program and developing nuclear weapons, or consider a military option that would enable Israel to launch a strike with substantial support from Washington.2- Undermining the Prospects of Achieving a Two-State Solution: Netanyahu began his return to the position of Prime Minister in 2009 by accepting the two-state solution as the basis for ending the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. This acceptance came as a result of American pressure exerted by the Barack Obama administration. However, Netanyahu's doctrine, as well as the pressure of his right-wing allies, gradually led to thwarting Obama's attempts during his two terms office.The keynote speaker highlighted that Netanyahu's success in undermining the prospects of a peaceful resolution was based on a rationale that appeared acceptable to both the United States and Europe. On the one hand, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas demonstrated inflexibility regarding the June 4, 1967 borders and the status of East Jerusalem. On the other hand, Netanyahu capitalized on Hamas's attacks against Israel during the 2012 and 2014 conflicts to reinforce the well-known slogan, even adopted by the Israeli left: "There is no partner for peace". Netanyahu prioritized conflict management over resolution, as resolving it would have certainly undermined the ruling right-wing bloc.However, after President Trump proposed his plan to displace the population of Gaza, the two-state solution became more elusive, at least during Trump's four years in the White House.3- Maintaining Good Relations with Russia: Maintaining good relations with Russia is essential for Israel for three key reasons: Netanyahu's concern regarding Russia's support for Iran amid U.S. pressure following Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement; Israel's need to coordinate with Russian forces stationed in Syria while conducting ongoing airstrikes on Iranian weapons smuggling routes to Hezbollah through Syria; and Netanyahu's apprehension about increasing pressure from the Biden administration on Israel to adopt a decisive stance against Russia regarding its war in Ukraine.However, with Trump's move to pressure Ukraine to end the war with Russia, Israel will be able to ease its dilemma of balancing between the U.S. and Russia in this conflict, which would not have satisfied Russia or the United States.4- Fluctuation in Bilateral Relations between Israel and China: Since Netanyahu came to power for the second time in 2009 until 2018 (the date of the last elected government he led), Chinese-Israeli relations have developed at an unprecedented pace. In recent years, China has become Israel's third-largest trading partner, with its investments in Israel rising from $50 million in 1992 to nearly $11 billion annually at present. Trade between the two countries reached approximately $22.8 billion in 2021.However, after Netanyahu's departure from power in 2021, Israeli reports indicated a decline not only in the economic relations between the two countries but also at the political level. Tensions have emerged between them over China's position on the ongoing negotiations to revive the nuclear agreement with Iran, which appears more biased toward Tehran's perspective and fails to take Israeli concerns into account.The development of Israeli relations with China will also face a significant obstacle as a result of Trump's focus on curbing Chinese ambitions. The Trump administration may exert considerable pressure on Israel to scale back its cooperation with China in advanced technology research, which would significantly damage Israeli economic interests. China could retaliate by deepening its strategic alliance with Iran.5- Maintaining Strategic Relations with the United States: According to the keynote speaker, Israeli-American relations experienced significant tensions following Netanyahu's return to power in 2023. The Biden administration consistently reaffirmed its belief that the two-state solution remains the optimal solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. It also sought to renegotiate with Iran regarding the possibility of Washington rejoining the nuclear agreement from which Trump had withdrawn. Finally, during Israel's multi-front war, Washington sought to pressure it to allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. It also imposed sanctions on certain Israeli settlement leaders, and, by the end of Biden's term, suspended certain previously agreed arms transfers that Israel had previously signed.6- The Possibility of Renewed Israeli Warfare on Multiple Fronts: The keynote speaker suggested the possibility of the war continuing on all fronts at varying intensities. He considered the resumption of fighting in Gaza after the first phase of the ceasefire agreement to be highly likely. This conflict is expected to persist for several months unless Hamas agrees to dismantle its forces and accept exile from the Strip through a negotiated arrangement involving Israel, the United States, and several Arab nations to implement this plan. The Houthi front in Yemen is expected to pose the most significant challenge for Israel, given the Houthis' stated intention to resume launching missile and drone attacks against Israeli vessels in the Red Sea and deep into Israeli territory if fighting in Gaza resumes.Israel may also resort to clashing with Iran again, given the ongoing debate among Israeli officials over how to neutralize Iran’s proxy fronts opened by Iran's proxies against Israel. There is a division between those who advocate for focusing on striking Iran and neutralizing its nuclear threat as a logical strategy for permanently eliminating the dangers posed by its proxies and those who argue that attacking Iran will not deter its proxies, particularly the Houthi militia. Moreover, any military action against Iran may not be a viable option for Israel without the approval and participation of the United States, which cannot be assured, at least in the foreseeable future.New ChallengesFinally, the keynote speaker highlighted emerging challenges, such as rising threats to diaspora communities in the United States and Europe in light of the rising anti-Israel sentiment following the war in Gaza. This challenge coincides with worsening ties with Egypt, particularly considering Israel's ongoing reliance on a proposal to displace Gaza's residents. Additionally, Israel aims to counter Turkey's ambitions to assume Iran's role in the region.These overlapping domestic and international developments place Israel at a critical political and security juncture. Given these complex circumstances, it is essential to realistically and practically define future scenarios and possibilities in order to formulate policies that can effectively address this changing reality. Israel remains mired in strategic uncertainty across all fronts.

Domestic and Foreign Policy Transformations in Israel (Panel Discussion)