Menan Khater‏‏

Migration has recently emerged as one of the main sources of political polarization between the right and left in Spain, as right-wing opposition parties have intensified their attacks on the government led by the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), going so far as to call for early elections. The recent crisis in Ceuta has further heightened these political divisions, providing the opposition with additional levers to pressure the government and hold it responsible for its handling of the crisis.The Ceuta crisis was not the first point of contention between the government and opposition over migration. Rather, it was the latest in a series of disputes over management of the issue, following earlier disagreements over the government’s efforts to regularize the status of undocumented migrants and over the concept of "national preference," a principle advocated by right-wing forces to give Spaniards priority over migrants in access to public assistance and services. Migration has consequently become an increasingly important issue in Spain’s domestic party politics.Political RealignmentMigration has emerged as one of the main drivers reshaping political alignments and deepening polarization among Spain’s political forces. The main features of this shift include the following:1. Deepening Divisions Within the Governing Coalition Over Migration Policy: Differences have emerged between the PSOE and other members of the governing alliance, including the Sumar coalition and the United Left, over how migration is managed. While the government has sought to address undocumented migration through legal mechanisms and impose additional restrictions, Sumar has pushed for easing some of these constraints.These differences were evident in disagreements over the implementation of the extraordinary regularization of undocumented migrants proposed in April 2026, with Sumar accusing the PSOE of using <a href="about:blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">racial profiling</a> against eligible migrants. During the recent crisis in Ceuta, Sumar <a href="https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-08-28/sumar-psoe-equivoca-ceuta-traslado-peninsula/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">argued</a> that the PSOE was "wrong" to treat the "humanitarian crisis" in Ceuta primarily as a security issue. Similarly, Enrique Santiago, parliamentary spokesperson for the United Left, <a href="https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-iu-reprocha-gobierno-falta-presencia-permanente-ceuta-pide-llevar-todos-migrantes-peninsula-20260820133458.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">criticized</a> the government for failing to maintain a "permanent" presence of "senior officials" in the city to ensure stability for its residents.2. Disagreements Within the Government Over Early Warnings Escalate Into a Political Crisis: Divisions also emerged among ministers in Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government after the interior and defense ministers <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/pedro-sanchez-ministers-clash-spain-ceuta-migrant-surge/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">offered</a> conflicting accounts of advance warnings about the Ceuta crisis. The disagreement undermined the government’s ability to contain the crisis and respond to mounting opposition criticism over its alleged failure to protect Ceuta’s security.During an extraordinary session of the Spanish parliament, Defense Minister Margarita Robles insisted that the National Intelligence Center, which is responsible for foreign and domestic intelligence and counterintelligence, had warned national authorities on July 29, 2026, before thousands of migrants began arriving in Ceuta. Her account contradicted that of Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, who had maintained for weeks that the national government did not reinforce Ceuta’s border because it had been unable to anticipate the sudden influx of migrants.3. The Right Uses Migration to Broaden the Government’s Political Legitimacy Crisis: In recent months, Spain’s right-wing opposition parties have stepped up pressure on the government over a series of migration-related disputes, including the extraordinary regularization of undocumented migrants and Vox’s principle of "national preference," which would prioritize Spaniards over migrants in access to public assistance and services.The Ceuta crisis further intensified tensions between the government and opposition and increased political pressure on Sánchez. The People’s Party summoned several ministers over the government’s handling of the crisis. On August 22, 2026, party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo also <a href="https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-feijoo-no-descarta-volver-citar-sanchez-senado-dice-corrupcion-llegado-consejo-ministros-20260822112449.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">raised</a> the prospect of a no-confidence motion against the government as part of broader opposition pressure over the Ceuta crisis and other issues, calling on parties supporting the government to reconsider their backing for Sánchez.Vox, meanwhile, <a href="https://www.democrata.es/en/politics/abascal-asks-the-pp-for-its-votes-to-activate-article-102-of-the-constitution-and-accuse-sanchez-of-treason/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">adopted</a> a more confrontational approach, calling on Spain’s Congress of Deputies to invoke Article 102 of the Spanish Constitution to prosecute Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez for alleged "treason" over the migrant crisis in Ceuta.4. Vox Gains in Opinion Polls Amid the Ceuta Crisis: Opinion <a href="https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/general-elections-survey-vox-skyrockets-after-ceuta-the-pp-falls-2-6-points-and-the-psoe-approaches-it-according-to-more-in-common/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">polls</a> conducted following the Ceuta crisis showed increased support for Vox. A More in Common poll published in September 2026 put support for the party at 20.3%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from its July 2026 numbers. The result suggests growing support for a party that has made migration, border control, and security central elements of its political agenda.5. Government Efforts to Develop Legislative Frameworks to Counter the Opposition’s Migration Narrative: On August 25, 2026, the Council of Ministers <a href="https://amp.rtve.es/noticias/20260825/gobierno-aprueba-anteproyecto-ley-asilo-reforma-ley-extranjeria/17201285.shtml" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">approved</a>, at first reading, a new asylum bill and another bill reforming immigration law. The measures are intended to bring Spanish legislation into line with the European Pact on Migration and Asylum and ensure faster processing of international protection applications.The proposed legislation has generated controversy among Spanish civil society organizations working on migration. The Spanish Commission for Refugee Aid (CEAR) <a href="https://www.europapress.es/epsocial/migracion/noticia-cear-alerta-graves-retrocesos-nueva-ley-asilo-pide-gobierno-recapacite-retire-propuesta-20260826114144.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">warned</a> that the new asylum bill approved by the Council of Ministers represented a "serious step backwards" and called on the government to "reconsider and withdraw the proposal," arguing that it aligns Spain with other European countries that are pursuing more restrictive migration policies while failing to adequately protect migrants’ rights.6. Migration Becomes a Tool for Renegotiating the Distribution of Power Between Madrid and the Regions: In August 2026, Together for Catalonia (Junts) <a href="https://elpais.com/espana/2026-08-26/junts-endurece-su-discurso-y-reclama-competencias-en-inmigracion-para-cataluna-no-podemos-esperar-ni-un-minuto-mas.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reintroduced</a> legislation that would transfer migration-related powers from the central government to the Catalonian authorities, capitalizing on the pressure that Sánchez is facing on the issue.By reviving the legislation, the party is seeking broader political gains, including authority to manage migration independently of decisions taken in Madrid. Such a move would advance its broader objective of securing greater sovereign powers and strengthening Catalan autonomy. It would also allow Junts to translate its tougher rhetoric on migration into concrete policies while strengthening its electoral position in response to the <a href="https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/survey-catalonia-elections-alianca-catalana-overtakes-junts-erc-recovers-and-psc-maintains-leadership/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">rise</a> of the more hardline Aliança Catalana, which is competing with Junts for support among Catalan nationalist voters.Broader ImplicationsSpain’s current political crisis could lead to significant shifts in the domestic political landscape. The main potential implications include the following:1. Potential Cabinet Reshuffle to Contain Political Pressure: Despite Sánchez’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c07lz7rn2mjo" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">insistence</a> that the government had no prior knowledge of the Ceuta crisis, recent developments could prompt him to attribute responsibility to certain members of his government and potentially replace some ministers in an effort to contain the mounting political pressure. Such moves could also serve to prevent the controversy from targeting Sánchez himself directly, particularly amid the accusations of "treason" that are being levied against him.Another indication of this possible cabinet reshuffle is the decision to <a href="https://www.democrata.es/en/politics/live-follow-robles-appearance-in-congress-regarding-the-ceuta-crisis/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">summon</a> eight ministers to appear before parliament in August, including Defense Minister Margarita Robles, Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, and Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares.2. Potential Legislative Gridlock: On July 23, 2026, a majority of parties once again rejected the government’s proposed spending framework for 2027, continuing the impasse that has prevented it from securing enough votes to pass a new budget and has instead resulted in the repeated extension of the 2023 budget. Notably, several parties that had previously supported Sánchez’s legislative proposals <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/spanish-parliament-rejects-governments-2027-spending-plan-2026-07-23/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">voted</a> against the spending framework this time.Similarly, on September 5, 2026, Podemos Secretary-General Ione Belarra <a href="https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-podemos-acusa-sanchez-tener-miedo-marruecos-pregunta-si-porque-tienen-demasiada-informacion-20260905123311.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">said</a> that Sánchez should not expect her party to support the government’s future budget proposal, arguing that the government was "digging its own grave" because of its "inaction" during the Ceuta crisis.3. A Shift Toward the Securitization of Migration and Tighter Border Policies: The Spanish government officially declared the Ceuta crisis a "situation affecting national security" and <a href="https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/consejodeministros/resumenes/paginas/2026/250826-rueda-prensa-ministros.aspx" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">established</a> a unified command headed by Minister for Territorial Policy and Democratic Memory Ángel Víctor Torres.The command is <a href="https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/consejodeministros/ruedas/Paginas/2026/20260825-transcripcion-rueda-de-prensa-ministros.aspx" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">intended</a> to coordinate the response of 11 ministries and a number of relevant local authorities and security and intelligence institutions. This marked the first time Spain had <a href="https://efe.com/espana/2026-08-25/ceuta-crisis-seguridad-nacional/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">used</a> this mechanism under the 2015 National Security Law. Sánchez also said that he would seek <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/03/europe/pedro-sanchez-spain-ceuta-speech-intl" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">support</a> from European Union institutions, including Frontex, the bloc’s border and coast guard agency, to secure the borders of both Ceuta and Melilla.4. Offering Economic Incentives to Expand Political Room for Maneuver: Prime Minister Sánchez has long highlighted Spain’s economic achievements in an effort to respond to political accusations directed at him or senior PSOE officials. This approach was evident when Sánchez highlighted his government’s economic record during a <a href="https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/lang/en/presidente/news/paginas/2025/20250611-control-session.aspx" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">parliamentary</a> oversight session in June 2025, amid mounting corruption allegations involving several people close to him.Sánchez has adopted a similar approach during the current political crisis. On September 3, 2026, he announced an exceptional €100 million increase in funding to <a href="https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/lang/en/presidente/news/paginas/2026/20260903-appearance-ceuta.aspx" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">supplement</a> the "Comprehensive Plan for the Socioeconomic Development of the City of Ceuta" that was originally adopted in 2022. On September 7, 2026, Sánchez also launched the first online portal for CASA 47, the state-owned public <a href="https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/09/07/casa-47-what-the-new-national-public-housing-portal-offers-and-how-it-works" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">housing program</a>. The portal, which offers housing at rents capped according to income, initially listed 800 housing units, with another 1,500 expected to be added soon,.5. Greater Prospects for a Right-Wing Majority Led by the People’s Party and Vox: Current polling trends indicate increased electoral support for right-wing parties ahead of the next parliamentary election. Combined support for the People’s Party and Vox <a href="https://elpais.com/espana/2026-09-07/el-pp-y-vox-superan-por-primera-vez-el-50-del-voto-en-plena-crisis-de-ceuta.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">exceeded</a> 50% for the first time, with the People’s Party at 32.4% and Vox at 17.8%. These figures could indicate that the People’s Party may be unable to form a government on its own and could therefore need the support of Vox or other political forces to form a government.This model has already been applied following the Andalusian regional elections, where the People’s Party and Vox <a href="https://www.democrata.es/en/politics/pp-and-vox-agree-on-a-coalition-government-in-andalusia-that-will-be-signed-before-the-second-vote/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">formed</a> a coalition government in July 2026 after the former failed to secure an absolute majority. People’s Party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo had previously <a href="https://elpais.com/espana/2026-06-17/feijoo-abre-la-puerta-a-un-gobierno-de-coalicion-con-vox-si-asi-lo-dicen-las-urnas.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">expressed</a> his willingness to form a coalition government with Vox if the election results required it, while emphaszing the need to uphold his party’s core principles.6. Growing Likelihood of Early Elections: The political pressure facing Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is not limited to the recent migration crisis. It coincides with other challenges, particularly corruption allegations involving several people close to him, including investigations concerning his wife. These pressures, coupled with the government’s declining ability to secure parliamentary support, could increase the possibility of an early election.That possibility could gain further traction as the People’s Party and Vox seek to broaden opposition to Sánchez and raise the prospect of a no-confidence motion, amid divisions within the left-wing camp and increased support for right-wing forces in some opinion polls.In conclusion, migration in Spain has ceased to be merely a border-management issue or humanitarian challenge and has now become an important factor shaping domestic party politics. It has widened rifts within the left, while creating greater opportunities for right-wing forces to expand their political and electoral support and prompting the government to adopt a more restrictive approach to border control. The issue is therefore likely to remain a major source of pressure on the Sánchez government and play an increasingly important role in reshaping political alliances and party dynamics in the run-up to the next general election.

How Has the Migration Crisis Reshaped Spain’s Political Landscape?