InterRegional for Strategic Analysis held a session as part of its Authors’ Corner series to discuss the book The Routledge Handbook on the Future of Warfare. The two main discussants were the books’ editors: Artur Gruszczak, associate professor of international relations and chair of national security at the Faculty of International and Political Studies at Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland, and Sebastian Kaempf, associate professor in peace and conflict studies at the University of Queensland in Australia.

This Routledge volume provides a comprehensive overview of the future of warfare in the context of the complexities of the global security environment. Contributions from leading researchers and experts raise key questions about the development of warfare using a "prognostic" approach. The book attempts to explore the future of warfare by drawing on current trends that indicate growing complexities in how war occurs, whether with regard to forces and groups involved in conflict or their various objectives and motivations, while also considering the impact of technology on warfare. The book is divided into six sections that cover (1) general trends in warfare, (2) the main fields that will shape future conflicts, (3) perennial theories about warfare, (4) factors influencing complexity and differentiation, (5) the role of technology, and (6) specific geographic contexts in which wars can erupt.

Key Contributions

During the session, the two editors raised various key points about understanding warfare and its future, including the following:

1. New tools for forecasting the future of warfare: The participants in the session clarified that the study of warfare had become its own separate field. It is not only studied by those working in military institutions, but also by academics and even those working in entertainment fields. Discussions about future shifts in warfare have led towards a comprehensive approach to studying organized and armed violence, as well as new technologies and their applications, such as IT and communications networks, network-centric warfare, and strengthening awareness policies on this issue. This is not a recently established field, and one of the most important developments in the field is an awareness that precise forecasting about the future of warfare can be difficult. This is why various predictive tools are being developed for warfare, including those related to quantum computing, the use of AI in warfare, network structures utilized by non-state actors, nontraditional warfare, proxy warfare, swarming, traditional warfare, and heavy weaponry.

2. Addressing the disconnect between warfare studies and practitioner knowledge: When the two editors began their book project began in 2021, they noticed a major gap between the issues being raised in scholarship on warfare, and the level of knowledge held by actors who were engaging in war. This was particularly important since wars had become more regular since the 1990s or perhaps early 2000s, and had also taken on new characteristics. The editors of the book therefore saw a need to understand this better and to spur wider discussion about the future of warfare.

3. Heightened importance of revolutions in military affairs (RMA): The book discusses the issue of revolutions in military affairs (RMA), which is a concept used in relation to current and future warfare. This hypothesis claims that there is a historical process of transition from traditional warfare to technology-driven solutions, and clearly distinguishes between traditional, modern, and post-modern approach to warfare. The last of these combines military equipment, "human software," sophisticated military technology, cyberspace, and political identity. Usually, this term involves a paradigm shift in military operations, strategic culture, and political strategy to develop knowledge on the future of warfare.

4. Multiple actors involved in warfare: One of the key characteristics of modern warfare is that there are multiple actors involved in wars, including many non-state actors. The book sheds light on nontraditional warfare, gang warfare, proxy warfare, hybrid warfare, and other forms of asymmetric conflict through looking at their impacts and driving factors. It particularly considers situations in which a weaker actor faces a stronger opponent, usually a state army, and discusses nontraditional tactics of war, including strategic surprise and tactical maneuvering.

5. Understanding warfare from diverse geographical perspectives: The editors draw upon contributions from experts and scholars from various backgrounds and diverse geographical contexts beyond the scope of US-, UK-, and Australia-based expertise. The volume’s forty chapters include contributions from 50 authors, half of whom are women. There are also contributors with various backgrounds and levels of expertise, with mid-career scholars appearing alongside those with more extensive experience. The editors noted that it was necessary to include diverse points of view in order to capture different dimensions of studying the nature of warfare.

6. The changing nature of warfare: The editors noted that the concept of war is necessarily always evolving, because this reflects shifts in societies in general. The book follows some of the trajectories of these shifts during the modern era. Technology is a factor that was initially key to spurring the development of the concept of war. Other factors include organization, communications, engaging with emotions, and certain power behaviors. The involvement of non-state forces and use of traditional and sometimes crude tactics and tools has provoked a great deal of debate about the nature of modern warfare. It has also prompted debate about the interplay between traditional tactics used by non-state actors, and modern technologies that are used by state armies.

7. Exploring the complex nature of warfare: The book contends that one of the issues that arises when discussing the future of warfare is that warfare has become much more complex. There is continuity in forms of heavy traditional warfare. Over the decades asymmetric and nontraditional forms of warfare have also emerged in relation to non-state actors and their involvement in conflicts against state armies. By extension, this also involves the rise of proxy wars, hybrid wars, and other forms of asymmetric warfare. The book covers some of these non-traditional tactics including strategic surprise and tactical maneuvering. Furthermore, private military companies raise other new questions for the authors, such as who the main sponsor and proxy will be. Although proxies offer strategic advantages, they will not replace direct confrontation between states. There are also certain strategic objectives that cannot be achieved with proxies. The editors predicted that power would increasingly shift towards non-state actors, whether proxies or sponsors, and that it would become difficult to distinguish between proxies and sponsors. In some cases, it is the proxies who push sponsors to utilize external sources for some military activities.

With regard to the complex nature of warfare, the editors also discussed the concept of power below the threshold of war, and the spread of certain destructive activities, psychological warfare, espionage, manipulation of the media, fraudulent activities, cyberattacks and surveillance, and intimidation tactics used against decision-makers. There are also other similar practices to exert influence without using overt military force. In this context, the concept of networks has become a relevant issue in light of current conflicts. The editors noted that these networks are usually regarded as dependent on sophisticated technology, but networks can include various structures and formulations. The power of networks raises various questions about the role of technology. The book sheds light on this issue and considers what role technology ultimately plays as a critical variable, as well as the application of technologies and different repercussions of using technology.

8. Continued importance of classic theories of warfare: Despite the book’s focus on the future of warfare, it does not overlook links between classic theories in scholarship on warfare and current conflicts. The nature of warfare has not changed; it has simply taken on new characteristics as human civilization has changed. The role of technologies and organizations likewise remains as important as in previous decades. According to the editors, modern warfare includes the same modes of fighting and engagement of states and non-state actors in traditional military spheres (including in the air, sea, and land, as well as outer space). Human factors (with regard to human awareness, emotions, hostilities, and vengeance-seeking) likewise remain important in modern warfare as was the case with traditional warfare.

State Policies

Examining the strategies and polices of various states with regard to military operations and warfare sheds light on various key factors including:

1. The contested nature of hybrid warfare: The book deals with the concepts of hybrid warfare and hybrid threats as key factors in the future of warfare. This refers to how adversaries try to achieve their objectives without resorting to war or traditional military force, and therefore try to disturb, undermine, weaken, or destroy the target political system or internal cohesion of the opposing side through a mix of violence, control, sabotage, manipulation, and spreading misinformation. Western scholarship indicates that Russia increasingly relies on hybrid tools of warfare to pursue its interests and exert pressure on Western countries. This might be why these countries, and institutions such as NATO or the EU, are developing strategies to counter the threats of hybrid warfare.

This type of warfare has also appeared in the context of Western relations with China, and Western efforts to impose numerous regulations on Chinese technology within the West. Western governments consider Chinese involvement in the former’s technology systems as a concern because it could give Beijing tools for hybrid warfare against the West, especially with regard to espionage and efforts to manipulate societies.

2. Debate over state adoption of network and decentralized warfare strategies: In response to the complexities of warfare and the involvement of many actors such as insurgent groups and terrorist organization, some nations including the US have developed decentralized warfare strategies. The book proposes the concept of "chaoplexic" warfare (a term derived from the hard sciences, and which links chaos and complexity), primarily based on the idea of networks. The concept highlights the growing complexity and chaos of warfare and conflict. This concept is also used to describe nonlinear phenomena in order to visualize decentralized structures for the armed forces through reliance on networks. The book states that the concept has gained significant momentum in the US military strategic sphere, especially after Washington launched its war on terror after the 11 September 2001 attacks.

However, the book also indicates that the development of decentralized and network strategies by states has faced key challenges that make the implementation of this approach difficult in practice. Perhaps the most significant of these challenges is the hierarchical organizational structure of armies, as well as the links between the state and the armies and defining characteristics such as civil control, strategic planning, bureaucratic accounting, and centralized command control. Military institutions might therefore resist efforts to impose a decentralized or network structure.

3. Major powers use legal frameworks for military objectives: The book indicates that major powers in the international order tend to use legal frameworks to support their military objectives. This helps to lend legitimacy to military activities, as seen in the case of the US, China, and Russia. The book contends that this approach will continue in the future as the use of legal frameworks derived from international law occurs while other information and propaganda campaigns are simultaneously launched to gain support for great power military activities. This also serves to mitigate the intensity of international criticism of military activities pursued by some governments.

4. Prioritizing strategic culture in military planning: Despite efforts by major powers in the international order to develop their military capacities and to utilize technology, the book argues that technology is not the key variable at play. Instead, the book centers the concept of strategic culture as shaping the activity of the state and how it sees its role at the international level. Strategic culture reflects different countries’ traditions, values, stances, patterns of behavior, norms, symbols, achievements, and specific modes of adapting to their environment and resolving problems related to the threat of force or actual use of force. The book indicates that the US strategic culture is based on the notion of American exceptionalism. It employs innovative and future-oriented thinking and aims to lead the global thought agenda. Washington is therefore always trying to develop its military capabilities and to ensure technological superiority over its rivals and adversaries. The US’s main objective is to preserve its hegemonic standing in the international order.

5. Growing US and Western focus on wartime coalition: The book contends that US military experts after the Cold War have been more focused on coalition warfare as an approach. This approach is characterized by a high degree of complexity because it requires military cooperation between all allies, despite various and potentially divergent preferences and calculations. The first of these US-led coalition wars was the Gulf War in 1991, when Washington led operations planning between various joint forces. After this, miliary operations continued to happen in the same way including NATO interventions. It should not be overlooked that these wars have helped to expand cooperation and military communication operations between allied nations. They constitute an attempt to establish joint operations in military planning. Despite the challenges facing coalition warfare, the book contends that the US has become more experienced in this field, which means that this kind of warfare will continue to gain momentum in the future.

6. Expanding use of private military and security companies: Great power warfare policies have increasingly drawn on private military and security companies. For example, the US uses private military contractors to protect civilians, military bases, and logistics convoys. This approach has also been developed in China. Beijing uses private companies to carry out various military and security missions. Some estimates indicate that there are more than 40 company Chinese private security companies working at the global level, and many large companies have good relations with the Chinese army or the Community Party of China. Russia also is an important example of government reliance on private military and security companies. For example, the Wagner Group has played an important role in strengthening Moscow’s influence in many regions of conflict and upheaval in ways that serve Russia’s interests. At the same time, this approach offers Russia a degree of plausible deniability in being able to dodge international criticism of its official policies.

7. State involvement in internationalized civil wars: Civil wars do not necessarily remain within the borders of the nation in question; sometimes they become internationalized civil wars. The book indicates that this phenomenon has seen a marked increase in recent decades. Internationalized civil wars made up 15 percent of all wars between 1946 and 2011. However, this increased to almost 40 percent after 2011. Many factors have played a role in the growth of this phenomenon, including the global war on terror and the rise of proxy wars between great powers. Internationalized civil wars are linked to the fact that warring parties in civil wars realize they need to cooperate with foreign actors in order to achieve their interests. This usually involves both sides making concessions and not only external guidance for an internal actor in the conflict.

States that intervene in civil wars do so to protect their own interests. For example, Russia, Turkey, and Iran have intervened in the civil war in Syria. It is worth noting that intervention in civil wars has seen a key shift linked to the reduced importance of geography, although this continues to be important. As an example, we might look to Russia’s intervention in the Syrian civil war. The book examines the decreased importance of the geographic factor with regard to the capacity of great powers to send mercenaries or allied military forces to distant regions. Interventions of this nature can occur far from the intervening country’s immediate geographic borders. Technological developments have bolstered the capacity of great powers to intervene in civil wars without geographic restrictions.

8. Nuclear weapon card continues to shapes international dynamics: States will continue to utilize the nuclear weapon card in international dynamics. According to the book, the world is afflicted by nuclear order anxiety, which means that countries are continuously developing nuclear weapons as a form of deterrence against their enemies. This is the case with Russia and its ongoing threats about using nuclear weapons, especially since the war in Ukraine. North Korea is also interested in producing more weapons and doing missile tests. The US and Russia have withdrawn from many arms control treaties, while the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear program also failed.

In recent years, the issue of controlling nuclear armament has worsened as many international powers develop nuclear ambitions. There is also heightened competition between China, the US, and Russia, which means that nuclear weapons will continue to be developed by these powers as a deterrent. Furthermore, technological developments in the nuclear armament system have had a significant impact, including AI, cybersecurity, nanotechnology, and hypersonic technology. These forms of technology have had major implications for nuclear arms systems. For example, cyberattacks have increased on nuclear infrastructure, while AI has been integrated into decision-making processes for nuclear weapons. There are also hypersonic nuclear weapons being developed.

9. Growing role for mid-level powers in conflict resolution: The participants noted that mid-level powers have the capability and credibility to play an effective role in conflict resolution. However, they noted that it was difficult to provide a general answer on this, and that it depended upon the circumstances of specific mid-level powers. In other words, the situation is different for the UAE than for Japan or Canada. The latter two countries are also mid-level powers, but have different local and regional circumstances. Japan and Australia are focused on the role of China and whether the US’s role as security guarantor is growing or dwindling. The broader question this raises is: to what extent can a mid-level power succeed in resolving disputes on their own? This is particularly relevant in the context of the international order, which is undergoing many changes. Will new alliances or strategic cooperation be needed? However, the editors observed that one advantage mid-level powers hold is that they possess greater credibility in conflict resolution. There are some clever ways that mid-level powers employ to contribute to settling conflicts.

10. Failed and collapsed states inevitably require a response: In recent decades, there have been more instances of failed states whose authority has been dismantled. This led to increased incidence of conflict and war. Many states have experienced consecutive failures of this variety, culminating in the collapse of state institutions, and the undermining of the state’s capacity to carry out its duties and functions. A state is usually described as failed when it is no longer able to carry out the functions required of a state. This also means that the state as the center of governmental decision-making becomes ineffective and unable to act, or can involve suspension of laws, collapse of order, or major troubles for social cohesion. At this point, terrorist organizations and crime networks become more involved. Failed and collapsed states have extensive repercussions for neighboring countries with regard to regional and global security.

The authors of the book argue that these factors lend new dimensions to warfare, and that various states are demanding a response engaging with cases of failed states. They argue that military intervention is needed to restore order and rebuild institutions in failed and collapsed states.

Confounding Actors

States are not the only entities involved in wars and conflicts. Other nonstate actors are also increasingly involved, and their involvement has several key features:

1. Driving up use of military proxies in wars: Private military companies raise other new questions for the authors, such as who the main sponsor and proxy will be. Although proxies offers strategic advantages, this will not replace direct confrontation between states. There are also certain strategic objectives that cannot be achieved with proxies. At the same time, the editors predicted that power would increasingly shift towards non-governmental actors, whether proxies or sponsors, and that it would become difficult to distinguish between proxies and sponsors. In some cases, it is the proxies who push sponsors to utilize external sources for some military activities.

2. Non-state actors capable of dealing blows to states: It is worth noting that non-state actors have developed their military capabilities over the past decades, and are able to deal blows to states. The book observes that the technological capabilities of regular armies face significant challenges when it comes to extremist actions by insurgent forces or armed groups that have been able to shift traditional warfare to their advantage. They have shown that they are capable of ultimately forcing state armies to surrender over the long term. Key examples of this include Afghanistan and Iraq, and the losses that the US incurred there.

3. Militarization of many different spheres: It was noted that there has been expanded militarization of various fields, and an effort to bring fields that were not previously involved into the realm of warfare. For example, there is new US militarization of cyberspace, AI, and quantum sciences, as well as the remilitarization of outer space. This will not only lead to bolstering great powers capabilities’ but also the capabilities of mid-level powers.

4. Non-state actors further develop capabilities: The tools and tactics of non-state actors are not limited to traditional weapons; these actors also employ modern tools. Some groups use AI tools or cyberspace to achieve terrorist aims, in addition to efforts by these actors to take advantage of weak states, or even in some cases to present themselves as state proxies in times of war. It is worth noting here that these non-state actors have become part of cyberwarfare through attacking opponents, and carrying out hacking against them. For example, a group of pro-Russia hackers and cybercriminal networks attacked Estonia in 2007. There are also many reports of Russia groups carrying out cyberattacks against Ukrainian targets during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

5. Growing role of private security companies: It is worth noting that there has been a growing trend towards the privatization of warfare in recent years. Many private military and security companies have become involved in conflicts instead of state armies. Private companies have benefitted from technological developments and government decisions about direct involvement in many conflict situations. The influence of neoliberal thought has also influenced decision-making in some Western countries including the US and UK. These two countries have seen growing use of private military and security companies on a broad range of issues, including military support services in the spheres of transportation, logistics, training, intelligence, and data analysis.

6. Terrorist organizations will continue to impact future conflicts: The book forecasts that terrorist organizations will continue to shape future conflicts due to the continuing economic, political, and societal contexts that can catalyze terrorist activities. It is difficult to predict the future of terrorism in light of the complexities surrounding this phenomenon, and also because terrorist organizations are more flexible at the operational level. They can have a wide range of targets including civilian targets, which are less subject to protective measures. Modern technology also plays a role in this including blockchain, the dark net, encryption codes, and AI.

7. Increased reliance of violent non-state actors on network organization: The book predicts that violent non-state actors will continue to rely on violent networks to increase their chances in asymmetric warfare with governments and state armies. Globalization and the rise of the internet has contributed to fundamental shifts in the structure of violent non-state organizations, especially with regard to challenges involved with the traditional hierarchical structure of these groups. Globalization and the spread of the internet has also provided contexts in which terrorist organizations are pushed to shift to network structures. This is consistent with theories of globalization that posit the rise of interdependent global networks and that the internet made the world flat.

Networked organizations provide a less hierarchical structure, which is more horizontal compared to traditional structures. This gives organizations more flexibility to adapt to already volatile environments. The structural shifts in these organizations are linked to "netwar," which is defined as circumstances that involve conflict and crime at various societal levels, unlike traditional military warfare. In netwar, parties to conflict use organized networking and strategies, technologies, and approaches arising from the information revolution. Netwar usually revolves around a series of scattered nodes that share the same thinking, approaches, and interests.

8. Heightened threat for global security from organized crime groups: The book suggests that organized crime groups have become a significant threat to global security. According to statistics from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, the number of individuals who were killed by violence from organized crime was on par with the number killed by armed conflict between 2000 and 2017. The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime estimates that 80 percent of the world’s population lives in regions with high crime rates. A key example of this are crime networks in Latin American countries. The activity of these networks is linked to a rise in crises in nation-states and erosion of their sovereignty and ability to carry out their functions, especially regarding security. Organized crime is further complicated by interventions from some groups from the political sphere. In some cases, these groups will establish interlinked ties with political figures who might use these groups to achieve certain political aims and to gain support in elections. In some areas, especially in Latin America, transnational organized crime occurs across state borders.

9. Network mechanisms connect criminal groups and terrorist organizations: In recent years, there has been a rise in cooperative structures between many violent non-state organizations, including cooperation between criminal groups and terrorist organizations. A terrorist or criminal group might use combined tactics or methods to achieve mutual interests, and this could lead to functional alliances between criminal groups and terrorist organizations. Such networks can escalate to the level of extremism enabling a certain actor to enact a total shift with regard to the other actor. There are similarities between criminal groups and terrorist organizations, especially with regard to funding sources. Drug trafficking has become a source of income for both actors, in addition to extortion, kidnapping, theft, and smuggling.

The Role of Technology

The book examines the interplay between technology and arms systems in various chapters, including with regard to the following points:

1. Different potentials of AI in warfare: The editors indicate that there is a divergence between the ability of AI to change the future of warfare and its current role, especially given different definitions of AI. First, there is artificial narrow intelligence, which refers to systems that are able to better perform a single task, or a set of specific tasks such as monitoring the weather, or creating data reports through preliminary data analysis. Second, artificial general intelligence refers to systems that are able to perform a broader set of tasks independently, through learning and understanding information and applying it in the same ways a human brain would.

Artificial super intelligence is a third variety of AI that has been theorized in scholarship. This would be a system build on software with superhuman thinking capabilities. This type of AI does not yet exist, but is rather a theoretical concept from the realm of science fiction. In general, AI raises questions about its ability to independently manage warfare in the future without human involvement, or at least to reduce human interventions.

2. Technology shifts for military intelligence purposes: Technology has a significant impact on the functions and mechanisms in military intelligence work. Technology has led to new techniques and mechanisms for gathering information, and provides capabilities that can compete with those of adversaries, especially if they do not have the same technological capabilities. Technology helps intelligence agencies to perform their tasks more quickly and optimally. However, technology could have adverse effects linked to increased opportunities for intelligence hacking by adversaries and could also provide false information. Technology can also lead to other heightened risks for contemporary societies, which makes the work of intelligence agencies more complex.

3. Supporting remote warfare: The book discusses how modern technology helps strengthen the idea of remote warfare, in which big data, self-learning algorithms, AI, and unmanned systems play a role in planning and carrying out certain military operations that occur as part of remote warfare.

4. International rivalries over military use of AI: One characteristic of current international dynamics is a growing international rivalry over the military use of AI. Leading powers, especially the US and China, channel a great deal of money into integrating AI in defense operations. AI could also play a role in military logistics and in supporting decision-makers in military operations. Some countries could also develop an AI presence within certain weapons systems, including unmanned systems.

Other countries have developed programs for using AI in military targeting, such as through the US Maven program, which was announced in 2017. This is a Department of Defense program to expedite the adoption of AI and machine learning across all aspects of DoD work and to support defense intelligence. It focused at that time on preliminary models for fighting ISIS elements. AI was used in this project to identify and track targets for US air strikes.

5. Continued used of augmented and virtual reality technologies in military sphere: Augmented and virtual reality technologies continue to play a major role in the military sphere, especially with the develop of technologies like the Metaverse or digital twins. These technologies enable armies to implement diverse types of trainings and simulations of battle. Augmented reality in particular helps with improving the situational and operational awareness of armies. Virtual reality can also be used to design and manufacture weapons, and to expedite manufacture and production cycles. Augmented and virtual reality can be used to repair some arms systems.

6. Quantum technology reshapes global security: The authors of the book observed that quantum technology has the capacity to reshape global security on various levels. It can do so directly by leading to major developments in the field of weapons, communications, sensing, and computing. This can lead to resetting the strategic balance between military powers and also reformulate broader concepts in political geography in various regions. The development of this technology could lead to expanding global power because the actor that possesses this technology will have an edge over those that do not have it.

Quantum computers can create new simulations for training purposes, and quantum sensing systems can detect very small changes in the physical environment, such as magnetic or electric fields. This makes the various military applications of this technology particularly effective, including those that can detect enemy submarines, mines, rockets, etc. Quantum sensing systems can also create detailed maps of enemy terrain, and measure very faint signals, which makes them useful for tasks such as monitoring radio communications.

Given the importance of the quantum field, the US and China have doubled their spending on this technology. For example, the research and development budget for quantum technology in the US increased from 450 million USD in 2019 to 710 million USD in 2021. Some estimates indicate that China is also investing around 9 billion USD in the field of quantum technology, up from around only 200 million USD in 2015.

7. Developing lethal autonomous weapon systems: Lethal autonomous weapon systems are an important feature of current and future warfare. For example, this type of weapon has been used in the war in Ukraine, and to some extent in Libya and Syria. The use of robots and computer systems for the transport and use of drones or light ammunition was documented on numerous occasions, and one can presume that this trend will expand and intensify in one way or another in the near future. There are also communications based on remote sensing, especially high-speed satellite systems such as Starlink, which demonstrated its utility during the war in Ukraine.

8. International efforts to develop directed energy weapons: International rivalry has escalated in recent years with regard to developing directed energy weapons, which can be used in various contexts for weapons systems, including ballistic missile defense, unmanned drone systems, and anti-satellite systems. Directed energy weapons use targeted electromagnetic energy to combat enemy forces or assets. These weapons include high-energy lasers and other high-energy electromagnetic materials such as millimeter waves and high-energy microwaves. Unlike weapons that fire bullets or missiles, directed energy weapons can respond to threats in different ways. For example, they can dismantle electronics in unmanned drones temporarily or destroy them completely.

These arms can be used to deter, damage, or destroy. Since they use energy instead of bullets or missiles, directed energy weapons can be less costly for each round and have almost unlimited ability to fire. However, energy weapons and especially directed energy weapons like lasers also face challenges because they need a line of sight in order to engage with the target. These weapons are also more sensitive to climatic and temperature variables, which can result in the rays that these weapons emit losing their energy, stability, or quality of targeting. Directed lasers can also only be used to engage with a single target in an attack, which makes them vulnerable to targeting and destruction by the adversary.

9. Continued international rivalry in space: It is unlikely that military rivalries in outer space will recede since space offers military institutions in different countries various advantages. This includes surveillance operations, intelligence gathering through satellites, and communications via radio and optical transmissions between stations on the ground. Scholarship has recently begun to discuss the theoretical possibility of using satellite systems to carry out combat missions against air, sea, or ground targets. The book discusses orbital weapons and their capacity to penetrate enemy areas including in space. In the future, satellite systems are likely to be able to fight other targets in space such as satellites or ballistic missiles. However, satellites continue to encounter some challenges such as high costs and exposure, which makes them easier to target by adversaries.

10. Heightened fears about ethical repercussions of human-machine integration: The editors warned of the consequences of integrating humans, machines, and technologies that aim to extend or bolster the capacity of states in various fields, including the military sphere. The book notes that the human species contains great variation, which armies take an interest in, such as through microchips that can be placed in the human brain or neurological agents that can be used to eliminate certain human weaknesses in warfare. This can also be seen in the expanded use of unmanned military systems. The editors raise questions about the ethical implications of such integration, since the principles and practices of the past are no longer found today.

Forecasting the Future

Predicting the future of warfare requires considering several key factors including:

1. Managing uncertainty about the future: The book argues that strategic forecasts about the future of warfare attempt to manage uncertainty about the future and to avoid complete surprises. Future analyses of warfare aim to link between present and future in order to posit what form war might take in the future, and how to best prepare. The book contends that thinking about the future requires a long-term approach in order to create a cohesive vision about warfare as a phenomenon.

2. History is important to future forecasts: The book mainly draws connections between the past, present, and future. It proposes that there were historical events and trends that are expected to continue into the future, and that if certain events did not occur, it would have been a "game changer" that would have set events on an entirely different path.

3. Increased interest of states in anticipatory intelligence: The book discusses the concept of anticipatory intelligence, which is one method of predicting the future of warfare. Anticipatory intelligence deals with the capacity to sense, predict, and warn of conditions, trends, threats, or opportunities that could emerge and would require rapid shifts in national security conditions or priorities. This definition focuses on emerging trends and implies that it is possible to determine patterns in current and historical data in order to predict key rapidly-developing events concerning national security.

4. Western countries expand imaginative projects on future of warfare: The book points to imagination as increasingly important in predicting the future of warfare. Many countries have launched projects to imagine the future. For example, Germany’s Project Cassandra involved coordination between the German Federal Ministry of Defense and a professor of comparative literature at the University of Tübingen. The project asked university professors to imagine the future of warfare through literature. In France, the Defense Innovation Agency formed a team of science fiction authors to generate scenarios that most military planners might be unable to predict.

In the US, the Defense Department turned to Hollywood after the 11 September 2001 attacks to ask science fiction writers about what terrorists might do next. The field of "militainment" also gained significant momentum, especially in the US, with various entertainment products appearing, including films. These initiatives were backed by the US Department of Defense which wanted to predict the future of warfare and the weapons of the future.

5. Efforts to overcome key challenges in forecasting: The methods for predicting the future of warfare have faced various key challenges in light of the complex nature of warfare and involvement of various factors. Other issues include growing uncertainty around current international dynamics in light of widespread chaos. This will also negatively impact predictive capacities and imposes restrictions on the process of monitoring this phenomenon and all related variables. These factors have also prompted some to discuss unlikely scenarios, which complicate the task of forecasting. There are also problems included existing biases, and shortcomings related to bureaucratic restrictions and factors in the decision-making process, as well as distorted understandings of reality, which can negatively impact prognostic mechanisms.

In conclusion, the editors of the book affirmed that exploring the features of state defense and military policies indicates continued competition between states, and especially great powers, in developing military capabilities as well as reliance on hybrid warfare mechanisms. Some have turned to proxy warfare by offering support for proxies that can achieve state interests, in addition to growing state use of private military and security companies. Nation-states are continuing to use modern technology to develop their weapons capabilities.

Understanding the Future of Warfare (Book Talk)