Dr. Yasmin Calmet

On Tuesday, 6 November, American citizens went to the polls to elect a new president. Donald Trump’s victory for a second presidential term raises questions about possible scenarios for how Trump might address a range of political issues requiring the US president’s attention. Key issues include the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine wars, immigration, future US relations with countries with different political ideologies, and the potential that Trump’s election might encourage the rise or return of radical right-wing figures in Latin America.Trump’s first term was characterized by nationalist rhetoric and a team with limited management skills. Despite this, Trump maintained control by creating a powerful disinformation network that discredited his political opponents and alienated citizens with limited access to reliable information. Additionally, by refusing to acknowledge his defeat in the 2020 elections and encouraging the invasion of the US Capitol, Trump put the democratic structures of the United States at risk—no previous US leader had made allegations of fraud about a presidential election. Furthermore, he took a negligent and denialist stance on the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change, and pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement.What should we expect from Trump’s new term? First, it is important to remember that Trump is a right-wing populist who skillfully used propaganda and misinformation to fuel the fears and grievances of his electoral base—comprised mainly of blue-collar workers and low-income citizens who are often marginalized by the system and lack of prospects for a better future. Additionally, Trump will begin this new term with more experience and fewer restrictions compared to the first, since his Republican party has a majority in the Senate (and potentially Congress) and a majority of Supreme Court justices are Republican appointees. Undoubtedly, he will seek to appoint more figures loyal to his political project, and has threatened to cut back career positions in the government and replace them with political appointees.Furthermore, Trump promised during his campaign that he would take drastic measures regarding immigration—especially against undocumented immigrants. It is worth remembering that during his first term, he made immigration a government priority, issuing executive orders that blocked the entry of migrants from Muslim countries and began the construction of a wall along the Mexican border to curb Latin American migration. These policies hindered dialogue and obstructed the creation of joint migration policies with leaders of countries with the highest migratory flows to the United States.Trump is expected to launch an intense securitization policy against immigration in his second term, and has promised mass deportations, the completion of the border wall, and an increased number of border agents. He treats immigration as an existential threat to US citizens in terms of public order, the labor market, and collective identity.It is crucial to understand how Trump’s election will resonate politically in Latin America. His victory raises concerns, since he showed little interest in the region during his first term, visiting South America only once for the G20 summit. This lack of interest was evident in his campaign speeches: He emphasized a foreign policy focused on regions like Europe, and on the diplomatic isolation of Iran to prevent it from continuing to be a "threat" to Israel and US interests in the Middle East. Additionally, it is worth noting that Trump tends to view relations with Latin America through the lens of coercion rather than cooperation. For example, he has threatened to impose heavy trade tariffs on Mexico if the country fails to adopt policies controlling illegal immigration to the United States.Another important issue is Trump’s statements that he will increase tariffs on most foreign products to balance the US trade deficit. The implementation of a protectionist fiscal policy could force Latin American countries to deal with dollar appreciation, which would make their products more expensive and slow economic growth in the region, including in Brazil, Peru, and Mexico. Paradoxically, Trump’s economic protectionism could redirect products previously exported to the United States to other markets, strengthening trade relations with China.At the same time, these issues could generate tensions with countries that maintain strong commercial ties with China, such as Peru. In Peru, construction is underway for the Chancay megaport, which is a strategic zone for China and South Pacific countries, as well as allies like Brazil. This port promises to transform the region’s commercial dynamics, with geopolitical implications that could heighten animosities between the United States and China’s trade partners. Meanwhile, conservative leaders such as Milei in Argentina, Noboa in Ecuador, and Lacalle Pou in Uruguay may seek to detach from regional economic blocs and strengthen trade ties with the United States.Trump’s election represents a concerning scenario for Latin American political systems, as it strengthens the rise of the contemporary right and the conservative agenda in the region. This could be reflected in the upcoming 2025-2028 electoral cycle, during which several Latin American countries will choose representatives for their legislative and executive branches, and might opt for more conservative congresses and presidents who are less committed to basic rights and social progress. Right-wing politicians tend to adopt individualistic, nationalist, and authoritarian views, while disregarding international agreements, which could further weaken democracies in the region.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Potential Implications for U.S. Policy on Latin America