Asmaa El Safty‏‏

On 8 February, in a move that many expected would happen early this year, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the dismissal of the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, due to the deteriorating relationship between the two men. Zelensky announced the appointment of General Oleksandr Syrskyi as head of the armed forces to replace the dismissed General Zaluzhnyi. In the same announcement, President Zelensky revealed his intention to promote five generals and two colonels, thus extending the changes to other levels in the armed forces’ organizational structure, not merely the head of command.Circumstances Surrounding the DecisionThe dismissal of the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, follows weeks of speculation about his future, due to his strained relationship with Ukrainian President Zelensky over the past year. The two men clashed over how to increase troop numbers and change the Ukrainian war strategy, as well as Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive against Russia that began in the spring of 2023. On 7 February, Zelensky met with the chief-of-staff and stated that it was time for someone else to take responsibility for leading the armed forces. Overall, the decision to fire Zaluzhnyi is linked to several key factors, as follows: 1. Holding Zaluzhnyi responsible for the failed counteroffensive: Some analysts attribute the tensions between the two men to their diverging decisions on what must be done on the battlefield. Zelensky and his administration held General Zaluzhnyi responsible for last year’s failed counteroffensive, and he was pressured to draw up battle plans and prepare to launch more attacks against Russia; however, the general did not yield to those pressures.2. Zelensky’s fears of the commander’s growing popularity: Some analysts believe that Zelensky’s decision to dismiss Valerii Zaluzhnyi from his position was driven by purely political motives. Opinion polls showed that Zaluzhnyi enjoyed broad popularity with the Ukrainian public—a popularity that has recently exceeded that of President Zelensky himself. 3. Zaluzhnyi’s refusal to play political roles supporting the regime: According to numerous reports, Valerii Zaluzhnyi refused to play several political roles that, in one way or another, served the Zelensky regime, such as leading public propaganda urging citizens to join the ranks of the armed forces and participate in the new mobilization process. The general considered this a role to be carried out purely and solely by political decision-makers, without interference from the military leadership, whose roles are military and tactical. Zaluzhnyi also refused to participate in planning a new counteroffensive with an unclear vision for the scale of the Ukrainian armed forces’ human, material, and military resources needed to create this plan.4. Zelensky’s efforts to draw up a new plan of attack: Others suggest that Zelensky’s rush to change the country’s military leadership is linked to his desire to draw up a new, comprehensive, yearly plan of attack that clarifies the most significant and important combat strategies and policies that the Ukrainian armed forces intend to implement in order to counter the progress made by Russian military forces in Ukrainian territory. Such a plan must also clarify the scale of the human and military materiel that Ukraine will need to mobilize in the upcoming period in order to carry out its combat operations.Zelensky is pushing for drawing up this new plan becasue the current mobilization plan being discussed in the Ukrainian parliament is facing a great deal of opposition and criticism from legislators and does not enjoy sufficient popular support. Public opinion and many political and military leaders are describing the proposed plan up for discussion in parliament as lacking objectivity and clarity, especially given its attempt to mobilize a large number of combatants and military materiel, without explaining the need for this vast number or the sources for funding and providing this military equipment. The attacks on this plan have increased, due to its reliance on the mechanisms of the previous counteroffensive plan under which the armed forces did not succeed in achieving any military progress on the ground during the past year.5. Kyiv’s attempt to maintain the support of its foreign allies: Zelensky seeks to present a new plan of attack, to be implemented by new military leaders, in order to inform its allies and convince them of the presence of a real desire to change Kyiv’s current military path, which can be described as a failure, by taking several practical steps on the ground. Through this move, Kyiv hopes to push its partners in Washington and Brussels to make explicit and concrete commitments to the amount of support they intend to allocate to Ukraine during the coming period and to banish the state of ambiguity and vagueness that dominates European and American policies regarding this issue.Possible ConsequencesThis decision is expected to entail several results, most notably the following:1. Zelensky’s promotion of the decision as confirmation of the independence of the political branch: In his interview with the Italian Broadcasting Corporation, the Ukrainian president commented on the news of Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal, saying: "When I talk about change, I have in mind a serious matter, not about one person, but about running the country. It is about the people who will lead Ukraine." These statements align with the view of many experts who believe that the ouster of the general is the correct political choice amid this war, as the president’s authority was damaged by rumors that portray him as too weak to remove Zaluzhnyi.2. Armed forces’ possible rejection of changes in its leadership structure: One of the dangers Zelensky faces as a result of this decision is losing the support of broad sectors within the armed forces. Valerii Zaluzhnyi is widely popular within the ranks of the Ukrainian armed forces, and many trust his planning abilities and strategic decision-making. Some believe that the reorganization process will cause turmoil as officers move to new positions in the leadership structure, which will ultimately weaken Ukraine’s military strike force. Furthermore, Ukraine needs to launch a new call for mobilization that will require a great deal of time given the current changes in the armed forces’ leadership structure.3. Ukraine’s loss of Zaluzhnyi’s military expertise: Zaluzhnyi has extensive battlefield experience and is also a graduate of the Soviet military school, which has the expertise necessary to deal with any Russian military challenge if provided with the sufficient military tools. Following his firing, the general spoke to CNN, emphasizing that Ukraine’s main allies are sharply divided over future support to Kyiv. He also added that Ukraine must deal with the expected decrease in military support from its allies, who are waging their own political disputes.4. Public opinion’s possible continued rejection of the launch of a new public call for mobilization: In other statements made to CNN, Zaluzhnyi indicated that Ukraine will not be able to strengthen its armed forces’ human capabilities unless lawmakers pass mobilization measures that enjoy popular majority. This is the most controversial issue in Ukraine today.In January 2024, the Ukrainian parliament refused to discuss a bill aimed at mobilizing more forces to replace soldiers exhausted by two years of service at the front fighting against the Russian army’s 600 thousand soldiers. The latest decision is expected to strengthen popular rejection of mobilization, especially with stories circulating that the changes recently revealed by Zelensky may be driven by Zelensky’s personal interests, without regard for the public interest.5. State of uncertainty over Zelensky’s vision for how to organize the armed forces: The dismissal of General Zaluzhnyi will have other political repercussions that may lead to unanticipated changes. This is primarily due to the ambiguity surrounding Zelensky’s rhetoric surrounding what he will do after Zaluzhnyi’s departure. It was not clear how the president will restore his vision for the war and how Ukraine will be able to counter Russia’s attacks.6. Limited effect of the changes on allies’ position on support: On the other hand, experts minimize the effect of these changes on allies’ position on support for Ukraine. Experts justify this by saying that the decline in European and American support for Ukraine in its war against Russia is driven by internal factors associated with both parties’ political balances and domestic demands. Although the European Union overcame Hungary’s opposition to Europe’s continued broad military support for Ukraine and agreed to provide a package of other aid to the country, Washington’s position on support for Ukraine is in doubt due to the internal disputes between members of the US Congress and members of the two parties.7. Zaluzhnyi’s likely involvement in politics: The dismissed commander of the armed forces may perhaps seek intensive involvement in politics and may compete with the Ukrainian president in any upcoming election—and the strong support Zaluzhnyi enjoys would help him in this. For example, a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 88% of Ukrainians support the dismissed general, while Zelensky’s support tops out at 62%. Analysts have long predicted that Zaluzhnyi would emerge as Zelensky’s political rival in the coming elections.In the end, the decision to fire Zaluzhnyi can be seen as a very dangerous political gamble that may greatly affect the Ukrainian regime as a whole. Despite the failed counteroffensive Ukraine launched in the spring and summer of 2023, the former commander of the armed forces is still considered one of the most popular military leaders in the country. All these data points indicate that the repercussions of the decision to change the military leadership of the Ukrainian armed forces may not end with the structural changes in the military command structure, but may extend to include the political system as a whole and the future course of the Russo-Ukrainian war.&nbsp;

What Are the Repercussions of Removing the Commander of the Ukrainian Army?