Muhammad Al-Faqi‏‏

The Taliban’s inability to eliminate ISIS or even reduce its operations after taking control of Afghanistan raises many questions, especially identifying the nature of the threats the organization poses in Afghanistan, with operations focused on the city of Jalalabad and escalating operations in the capital Kabul during November 2021. These challenges are related to ISIS, including its nature and the form of its presence, which has not changed its approach of successive operations that never push for territorial control, as well as its reliance on sleeper cells. This is in addition to its positioning on the rugged border with Pakistan, which is an advantage in terms of taking cover, planning operations, and attracting new members from those disgruntled with the Taliban and former army and intelligence personnel. Some factors can also be identified that are related to the Taliban, including the crisis of transitioning from insurgency to counterinsurgency, as well as the refusal of US support since the withdrawal of American forces, amid great internal challenges and burdens.

Why has the Taliban been unable to eliminate ISIS in Afghanistan?

Persisting Obstacles:

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

It appears that the activity of terrorist organizations could spike upwards in some areas, specifically in South Asia, following the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan and the implications of that on the activity of extremist groups in those areas. ISIS operations against the Taliban have increased, amid talk of greater freedom of movement for Al-Qaeda after the US withdrawal. Turning to Africa, which is in crisis in the first place, it is possible to expect an increase in terrorist activity, and even an increase in qualitative operations. For ISIS specifically, this is in light of the transition to a new stage of attempting to take control and extend influence, specifically towards the Lake Chad Basin and in the Sahel region. ISIS is also expected to continue trying to regain its positions in Iraq and Syria. Given counterterrorism trends, negotiating with armed groups might emerge as an option in some countries, while the US strategy of targeting the leaders and cadres of terrorist organizations looks like it will continue. There may be an increasing role for private security companies, and some countries could turn to using artificial intelligence technologies in the fight against terrorism.

Terrorist Activity Trends in 2022

Ascending Curve:

ISIS has lost control of many areas of Syria and Iraq, and has been unable to carry out major terrorist operations within Europe and the US, while also suffering a significant decline in its number of foreign fighters. In the wake of this, ISIS has begun to establish a strategic unit for targeting Western countries which utilizes a "hit-and-run" approach to carry out surprise operations against Western countries and interests, through operations including stabbings, explosions, hit-and-run vehicle attacks, and other methods with broad effects but limited scope. These operations require lower human and material costs than other operations they have previously carried out.

Aspects of the ISIS strategy to target Western countries

A "hit-and-run" approach:

Plentiful data indicate that ISIS has been working to consolidate its bases in Niger, where it has recently launched several bloody attacks killing dozens of civilians. The most notable of these was its operation in the village of Tillia, in the southwest of the country, in March 2021, which killed more than 141 civilians, including men, women, and children. ISIS members also stole nearly 5,000 camels and more than 20,000 cattle and sheep, along with many vehicles.

The future of the ISIS crescent on the African continent

Solidifying Their Position:

The cyber capabilities of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah are growing, as evidenced in a report late last January from cybersecurity firm ClearSky. The report disclosed that a group of Hezbollah-affiliated hackers, under the name Lebanese Cedar, carried out a global spying campaign. Intelligence reports also revealed that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has established a new cybersecurity unit within Hezbollah’s counterintelligence apparatus. Hezbollah’s current effort can be understood as enhancing its cyber capabilities in order to increase the militia’s ability to easily spy on various Lebanese state institutions. Hezbollah is expected to attempt to use its growing power in the cyber realm in order to carry out cyber attacks on various countries in the region. In this context, Tehran’s creation and oversight of a new intelligence unit within Hezbollah comes as part of Iran’s effort to tighten its grip on Lebanon.

Terrorism

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