Nahla Abdel Monem

Ten years after ISIS declared its caliphate, questions abound regarding whether the group might be able to rebuild its influence in Iraq. This is of particular concern in light of political and security developments in the region, and divergent assessments of escalating militant activity in Iraq. On 10 June 2024, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia‘ al-Sudani stated that terrorism no longer poses a threat to the country and praised the concerted efforts of the people and army to eliminate ISIS factions. This should be understood in the context of the Iraqi government’s desire for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS to withdraw from Iraq. Meanwhile, ISIS has recently released intensive media content on attacks it carried out targeting the Iraqi army and pro-Iranian brigades in Iraq.

Could ISIS Rebuild its Influence in Iraq?

Security Concerns:

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

Global counterterrorism efforts are accelerating on the continent of Africa, especially on the expanding fronts of the Sahel, the Sahara, and the Horn of Africa. Meanwhile, ISIS has strengthened its presence in the Central African Republic by shrewdly exploiting the region’s security breakdown and social and economic problems. ISIS hopes to turn the region into a sphere of influence exclusive to it among all terrorist organizations. Such are the conclusions of the United States, which announced in March 2021 that it was adding two branches of ISIS in the DRC and Mozambique to its list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. The groups’ inclusion on the list came as a result of their killing more than 2,000 civilians in total.

Why Washington Imposed Sanctions on ISIS Branches in the DRC and Mozambique?

A New Hotbed:

ISIS has lost control of many areas of Syria and Iraq, and has been unable to carry out major terrorist operations within Europe and the US, while also suffering a significant decline in its number of foreign fighters. In the wake of this, ISIS has begun to establish a strategic unit for targeting Western countries which utilizes a "hit-and-run" approach to carry out surprise operations against Western countries and interests, through operations including stabbings, explosions, hit-and-run vehicle attacks, and other methods with broad effects but limited scope. These operations require lower human and material costs than other operations they have previously carried out.

Aspects of the ISIS strategy to target Western countries

A "hit-and-run" approach:

Plentiful data indicate that ISIS has been working to consolidate its bases in Niger, where it has recently launched several bloody attacks killing dozens of civilians. The most notable of these was its operation in the village of Tillia, in the southwest of the country, in March 2021, which killed more than 141 civilians, including men, women, and children. ISIS members also stole nearly 5,000 camels and more than 20,000 cattle and sheep, along with many vehicles.

ISIS

الإصدارات

الأكثر مشاهدة