Dr. Ahmed Askar‏‏

On 9 December 2023, Djibouti hosted an extraordinary summit of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to discuss solutions to the conflict in Sudan. The conflict, which is entering its ninth month and has spread geographically to 11 of Sudan’s 18 states, is undergoing fundamental course shifts. Both parties are committed to resolving the conflict militarily, without offering any concessions, as reflected in the failure of international and regional peace initiatives, such as the Jeddah platform, to find a way out of the Sudanese crisis thus far. This threatens further escalation in the Sudan, and perhaps a resort to catastrophic scenarios for the future of Sudanese unity and cohesion.

What Obstacles Hinder the Resolution of the Sudan Conflict?

Faltering Mediation:

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

As one of the most active international players in Sudan, China is closely following Sudan’s recent escalating crises resulting from the country’s radical internal shifts following the political deadlock between the chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and his deputy and the leader of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as "Hemedti." On 15 April 2023, violent armed clashes broke out between the two sides in several areas inside and outside the Sudanese capital of Khartoum. China’s position on these rapid developments can be interpreted in light of a set of indicators and factors that govern China’s goals and interests with respect to Sudan.

How is Beijing Addressing the Developing Conflict in Sudan?

Chinese Anticipation:

In early February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Sudan as part of his African trip that also included Mali and Mauritania. His visit coincided with several official visits to Sudan by American, French, Norwegian, British, German, and EU envoys. All these visits came amid an extremely tense phase between civilian and military components within Sudan’s domestic political scene, which has existed ever since the decisions announced by the Chairman of the Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, on October 25, 2021. Those decisions returned matters to the state of instability associated with the overthrow of former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019. These diplomatic visits confirm that the West and Russia consider Sudan a contested space through which to gain greater impact and influence on the African continent in the near term.

Dimensions of the Escalating Western-Russian Competition in Sudan

Influence Sharing:

On June 26, Sudanese-Ethiopian tensions escalated in the border dispute over the Al-Fashaga area after the Sudanese army announced the killing of one Sudanese civilian and seven Sudanese soldiers by Ethiopian forces that had captured them on June 22, following clashes at the border between the two countries. Currently, the Ethiopian government is denying the execution of the Sudanese soldiers and has accused local Ethiopian militias of killing them. This situation portends further escalation between the two countries, and matters may spiral out of control to threaten the security and stability of the Horn of Africa.

What are the Chances of War between Ethiopia and Sudan?

Limits of Escalation:

Meral Hussein‏‏

After more than 25 years of estrangement, the United States has upgraded its diplomatic representation in Sudan from chargé d’affaires to ambassador in a serious attempt to strengthen relations with Khartoum. The US administration decided to appoint John Godfrey as its first ambassador to Sudan since 1996, when Washington cut diplomatic relations with Khartoum due to its support for Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. Officials and experts praised the decision, calling it an important step towards strengthening bilateral relations between the two countries. This move coincided with the difficult circumstances Sudan is currently experiencing, leading many to question the timing and implications of the appointment and Washington’s underlying goals.

Sudan

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