InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

Interregional for Strategic Analysis held a panel discussion entitled "Tehran's Vision: How Does Iran Deal with the Escalation in the Gaza Strip?", featuring Dr. Mohamed Abbas Nagi, Editor-in-Chief of the Iranian Selections Journal issued by the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. The panel discussed the most important policies adopted by Iran in dealing with the war in Gaza, in addition to the opportunities and threats it faced, and future scenarios in Iran's foreign policy.

How Does Iran Deal with Escalation in Gaza? (Panel Discussion)

Tehran's Vision:

Dr. Yasmin Calmet

Since the beginning of the twentieth century, many Palestinians have fled war at home in search of new opportunities in Latin America. Countries in our region have grappled with this challenge through developing opportunities for social and economic integration. The Palestinian exodus is not new for Latin America, particularly for Chile, Honduras, Colombia, Brazil, El Salvador, Peru, Venezuela, and Bolivia, all of which have sizable Palestinian populations.

How Is the War in Gaza Affecting Latin America’s Largest Palestinian Community?

Complex Dynamics:

Dr. Mohammad Salami‏‏

Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel has been met with many different reactions from the international community. Given divergent stances on the Palestinian cause and ties with Israel and/or Palestine, countries and regional blocs have variously condemned the Gaza conflict or supported Israel’s right to eliminate Hamas. Within the African Union (AU), member states had several different responses to the conflict based on the traditional, historic, economic, and geopolitical interests of those countries.

How Have African Leaders Reacted to the War in Gaza?

Divergent Responses:

Dr. Sodfa Mohamed Mahmoud‏‏

The attacks carried out on October 7 near Gaza by the Palestinian organization Hamas and the ensuing events have generated mixed reactions from various countries of the world. Some Latin American countries have taken unprecedented steps to counter the escalating violence against Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip. These steps have ranged from cutting off diplomatic relations and recalling ambassadors, to providing humanitarian aid, proposing political initiatives, and communicating with both parties to the conflict and their partners.

Latin American Interactions with the War in Gaza

Diplomatic Tensions

Amr Abdelaty‏‏

The Biden administration has clearly sided with Israel and its right to defend itself since the beginning of the al-Aqsa Flood operation that Hamas launched against settlements surrounding the Gaza Strip. The US position supports Israel’s right to eradicate Palestinian militant factions in Gaza. Statements by US officials in support of the Israeli military operations, which have caused a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, were met with anger by the Arab street and by pushback both at home and abroad. Many US reports indicate that the Biden administration is pressuring Tel Aviv to not expand military operations in order to contain regional and international fallout. The US administration also wants to mitigate domestic repercussions of the conflict as the November 2024 presidential election approaches, since this could have a significant impact on Biden’s chances of winning a second term.

Repercussions of the Israeli War on Gaza for US Interests in the Middle East

Escalating Stakes:

Although European leaders, especially in France, the UK, and Germany, have affirmed their full support for Israel and labeled Hamas as a "terrorist" organization, European popular opinion and political circles remain more divided. We are not only seeing fissures between government stances and various segments of society, but broader divisions at the EU level. EU member countries differ regarding how they feel Europe should intervene in the ongoing crisis and how to engage with the situation on the ground. European stances on the war are not only the result of longstanding foreign policy tenets, but also spurred by fears that the Israel-Hamas war could threaten European stability in ways that governments might not be able to handle.

How Will the Israel-Hamas Conflict Affect European Stability?

The Fallout of War:

On the morning of 7 October, Hamas launched 5,000 rockets into Israel and instigated a ground attack into Israeli territory. This operation was met with a harsh response from Israel. More than 4,400 people have now been killed on both sides of the conflict. The world’s reactions to this war have varied from Western support for Tel Aviv to condemnation of Israeli bombings of civilian targets in Gaza across the Global South. For its part, China’s response to the recent events has been both strategic and farsighted.

What Factors Drive China’s Stance from the War in Gaza?

Balancing Act:

On 7 October, the fragile peace between Palestine and Israel, which both claim a legitimate right to the same area of land, collapsed. Many wonder what the Palestinian group Hamas hopes to achieve by attacking Israel. This attack was a strategic and intentional move to undermine geopolitical agreements between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It also aimed to show the world that tensions between Palestine and Israel remain unresolved, primarily due to Netanyahu’s government’s repressive tactics against Palestine.

How Do Latin American Countries View the Palestinian-Israeli War?

Divergent Stance:

Soheir El Sherbiny‏‏

The Middle East, which is the center of the conflict between Hamas and Israel, holds a large part of the world’s oil reserves and is a major source of oil and natural gas. The region boasts 31% of global oil production, 18% of gas production, 48% of proven oil reserves, and 40% of proven gas reserves, making it a crucial player in global energy markets. Thus, any regional instability would result in an interruption of energy supplies followed by fluctuating energy prices throughout the world. Historical events may demonstrate the true role the region plays in supporting the stability of global energy markets, driven by expectations regarding the potential effect of the conflict on Middle Eastern energy production.

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