Dr. Youssef Dawood‏‏

On 24 December 2023, thousands of people gathered in the Serbian capital of Belgrade in anti-government protests. Demonstrators demanded the annulment of the results of local and parliamentary elections, which had been held the week before, and which led to widespread unrest in the country. To address this upheaval, the police in Belgrade used tear gas to disperse crowds who claimed the elections had been fraudulent. Police intervened after protestors broke windows and tried to storm some of the buildings, including the headquarters of the electoral commission. There are many reasons behind this unrest, some of which were direct catalysts, while others constitute part of the broader context that contributed to how these immediate triggers led to a serious crisis.Electoral ShiftsThe current tensions following the Serbian elections are linked to various electoral changes in the country, including the following:1. Dominance of the ruling party in National Assembly elections: In the parliamentary elections held last week, the Serbian Progressive Party captured 46.72 percent of the vote, according to the results announced by the governmental electoral commission. The center-left opposition coalition, Serbia Against Violence (SPN), was set to come in second with 23.2 percent, while the Socialist Party of Serbia, led by former foreign minister Ivica Dačić, came in third with 6.7 percent of the vote.2. Opposition fails to achieve goals in local elections: Local elections were held at the same time as parliamentary elections in most Serbian municipalities, including Belgrade. In these elections, the ruling Serbian Progressive Party also won by a large margin. The opposition had hoped to win at least the mayorship of Belgrade if they were unable to gain a majority in the National Assembly. However, the official results, which opposition figures have denounced as fraudulent, showed the opposition had been unable to achieve either goal.3. Opposition skeptical about fairness of elections: The opposition bloc described the parliamentary election results as unfair, since the media sided with the ruling party during the electoral campaigns. Furthermore, current President Aleksandar Vučić, who belongs to the Serbian Progressive Party, was able to influence elections proceedings. There are also other practices which have been described as unjust, such as buying votes and disrupting polling places.4. Political opposition forces continue escalation against ruling party: One of the most important drivers behind the post-election violence were certain practices followed by the opposing side during the elections and after results were announced. These practices aimed to stir up the street. For example, Marinika Tepić, one of the leaders of the Serbia Against Violence coalition, went on hunger strike prior to the elections to demand their cancellation. Radomir Lazović, the co-president of the Green-Left Front, issued statements after the election results were announced. He indicated that police officers had systematically employed violence against him as well as against various members of his campaign.5. Negative repercussions of "ghost voter" phenomenon: The most significant controversy in these elections is tied to what has been called the "ghost voter" phenomenon. These voters are citizens of Serbia and the Republic of Srpska who do not live in Belgrade, but were registered to vote in local elections there by the ruling party. The opposition alleged that more than 40,000 votes of this kind had been cast, which was a sufficient margin to launch the Serbian Progressive Party into the top spot in Belgrade.6. Fallout from high electoral commission’s response: The response from the high electoral commission inflamed the violence in Serbia further. Three days after the results were announced, the electoral committee declared that there would be a rerun of elections at 30 polling places (out of a total 8000 polling places in the country). The opposition saw this as demonstrating complete disregard for its demands to hold new elections at the national level. Leading members of the opposition bloc denounced the commission’s decision, which they labeled as biased.Causes of ViolenceThe aforementioned electoral shifts are linked to a number of driving factors that led to violence, including the following:1. Escalating domestic unrest in Serbia: The Serbian Progressive Party did very well in the elections—a result at odds with all opinion polls, given signs of diminishing popular support in the Serbian street over the last year. This drop in popularity was due to several factors, most importantly the mass shootings in May 2023, gradual increases in inflation, a worsening economic crisis with regard to productivity, and rising levels of unemployment. All of these challenges contributed to popular discontent, which translated into violence after the election results were announced, amidst continued escalation of tensions with Kosovo.2. Growing incidence of violence: The aftermath of the Serbian elections demonstrated that various sectors of society have resorted to violence more frequently. After the ruling party’s victory was announced, opposition coalition leaders Srđan Milivojević and Vladimir Obradović tried to open the door of the municipal building where local elections had been held. However, they were unable to enter, which spurred their supporters to engage in further violence against the police.Reports indicate that the police have used unjustified violence, including large amounts of tear gas. They also arrested more than 30 people during the demonstrations, while 8 police officers were injured. It was as if the ruling party had sent a warning to the opposition that there was no possibility of immediate political change, and that oppressive tools would be used to maintain the status quo.3. Ruling party fears rivals’ growing influence: Some reports suggest that the ruling party’s violent response to protests stemmed from their own sense of being in danger after some election surprises. Although the ruling party prevailed, the We-The Voice from the People movement, which backs conspiracy theories and is led by the controversial doctor Branimir Nestorović, captured 4.69 percent of the vote, even though it was launched only 45 days prior. Forecasts indicate that this party could play an important role in determining Serbia’s political future in the coming years.4. Increased political polarization: The Serbian political scene is characterized by sharp polarization between the populist right and the opposition. Leftist and centrist parties have succeeded in forming a united electoral coalition. There are two main political currents gaining traction at the moment: The first aims to drum up nationalist chauvinism, while the second wants to pursue policies that would seek Serbian integration in the EU and turning towards global trends and globalization. Given the extreme dissonance between the ideas of the ruling party and those of the united opposition, polarization has become a more serious issue. Elections have become a zero-sum game that one side must win, without any margin for shared understandings with regard to social, economic, or foreign policy.5. Opposition has high hopes: The recent violence is also a natural consequence of the opposition’s high hopes for a historic victory after coming together into a single coalition. This left the center-right parties in an isolated and weak position. The elections marked a turning point for the pro-EU opposition, which formed the coalition Serbia Against Violence and won 23.58 percent of the vote. This was a much more significant second place finish than previous opposition lists had won. The opposition had garnered 14 percent of the vote in 2022. At that time, the coalition consisted of several parties and movements that supported joining the EU, ranging from the Green-Left Front to centrist groups. In the most recent local elections in Belgrade, the opposition won 34.26 percent.6. Serbian elections become clash between West and Russia: External factors also played a role in the Serbian elections, which became an arena for confrontation between Western countries and Russia. Statements made by various European nations about the elections inflamed domestic Serbian politics. For example, the German government described the developments in Serbia as "unacceptable" for a state aiming for accession to the EU. The French government described the situation as unwelcome, while supposedly remaining neutral. The US ambassador to Belgrade, Christopher Hill, issued a statement proclaiming that "all citizens of Serbia have the right to be heard and the responsibility to express their political views in a peaceful way and without resorting to violence." These normative statements provoked resistance from the right-wing ruling party, which felt that this constituted foreign meddling or backing of the opposition coalition.Russia is not far removed from the electoral scene in Serbia, especially since it sees the Serbian president as a close ally. Russian ambassador to Serbia, Aleksandr Botsan-Kharchenko, indicated that the opposition was trying to topple the government by drawing on the example of Maidan. This was a reference to the Ukrainian uprising that ousted a Moscow-backed government in 2014. The spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, stated on 25 December 2023 that it was clear that the West was trying to destabilize Serbia. She compared the protests in Serbia to the earlier protests in Kiev, which had resulted in a pro-Western government coming to power in Ukraine in early 2014. As a result of Russia’s stance, Serbia Minister of Foreign Affairs Ivica Dačić expressed his country’s gratitude for the support that Moscow was providing to ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Serbia.In conclusion, the results of the local and parliamentary elections in Serbia were the key driver behind the current outbreak of violence in the country. However, there are various other factors rooted in Serbian society that also compounded the crisis. These factors suggest that in the near future the climate of polarization will become the defining characteristic of the political scene, and that future change will come within the balance of this equation. &nbsp;

Why Have the Serbian Elections Provoked Domestic Unrest?