Dr. Youssef Dawood‏‏

The influence of minority groups on the outcome of U.S. presidential elections is becoming increasingly significant, as debates intensify over their ability to shift the political balance, especially in the face of growing societal challenges. Among these groups, Arab and Muslim minorities have seen notable growth in both population size and political influence in recent decades. A clear example of this impact was Joe Biden's historic win in Michigan during the 2020 elections, where Arab and Muslim votes played a crucial role in determining the outcome in this key swing state. This raises the question of how much these minorities can influence the 2024 presidential election, particularly in pivotal swing states that will likely decide the next president, amidst fierce competition between Trump and Harris, as reflected in recent opinion polls.

How Significant Are Arab and Muslim Votes in the U.S. Presidential Elections?

Limited Influence:

WHO Chief Scientist Jeremy Farrar has voiced significant concern over the recent spread of avian influenza among cattle in the US. The US has reported only two human cases of the H5N1 avian flu strain in connection to cattle, but a wider outbreak could be catastrophic. During previous outbreaks, one in two infected individuals died, which suggests that H5N1 can be more virulent than COVID-19. Since this avian flu virus was first discovered nearly three decades ago in China, approximately 860 people across 23 countries, including China, Egypt, Vietnam, and Turkey, have contracted H5N1 from birds. There has been a total of 463 fatalities during those three decades—a mortality rate of around 52 percent.

Understanding the New Cases of Bird Flu

The Next Pandemic?:

On 24 December 2023, thousands of people gathered in the Serbian capital of Belgrade in anti-government protests. Demonstrators demanded the annulment of the results of local and parliamentary elections, which had been held the week before, and which led to widespread unrest in the country. To address this upheaval, the police in Belgrade used tear gas to disperse crowds who claimed the elections had been fraudulent. Police intervened after protestors broke windows and tried to storm some of the buildings, including the headquarters of the electoral commission. There are many reasons behind this unrest, some of which were direct catalysts, while others constitute part of the broader context that contributed to how these immediate triggers led to a serious crisis.

Why Have the Serbian Elections Provoked Domestic Unrest?

A Surge of Violence:

After German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Beijing on 4 November 2022, questions began to arise regarding why Germany was pursuing a unilateral policy at odds with that of the EU as a whole. Although there have been various recent signs of Chinese-German rapprochement, the chancellor’s trip stepped up the special relationship between the two countries. Other European nations that have important trade relations with China, such as France and Greece, have not been open about their evolving ties given the policy of containment towards China and Russia that the West has adopted since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Scholz’s trip marked the first visit to Beijing by a top Western official since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis.

Why is the German Chancellor Set on Pursuing Ties with Beijing?

Against the Grain:

Amid the wave of unrest and instability caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, and the resulting radical economic distortions on the European continent, European countries seem more vulnerable to fundamental societal shocks. This has prompted some to discuss the possibility of Europe undergoing a "European Spring" scenario, similar to what the Arab world experienced in the past. Although indicators of political, economic, and societal unrest in Europe have increased following a series of crises—most notably the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and Britain’s exit from the European Union, not to mention the retreat of the traditional right and left in favor of extremist currents—these circumstantial indicators must coincide with structural factors in order to talk about popular revolutionary change and replacement of fundamental values and ideology in Europe.

Will European Countries Witness Violent Internal Turmoil?

‘European Spring’:

More than 500 French diplomats and six professional unions declared a strike on 2 June 2022 to protest their deteriorating working conditions after reforms to the French diplomatic corps were issued by decree in April. A closer look at the French corps suggests that there were various motives behind these protests, rather than a single driver. The protests have diverse implications for France and reflect the scope of the challenges that the ministry of foreign affairs currently faces. The recent escalation of French diplomatic protests and the strike reflect diplomats’ concerns that these reforms could affect their status and privileges and reduce French influence abroad. There is no doubt that the escalation of these protests is exerting pressure on the new French government and could also impact the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Why Have French Diplomats Gone on Strike?

Status Under Fire:

The current Ukrainian crisis has shown that calculating the costs and benefits for any particular side in a conflict cannot lead to absolute or definite outcomes, with one side being declared at some point the winner and the other the absolute loser. Western countries are attempting to depict themselves as the ultimate winner, however long or short the crisis may be, due to the effectiveness of the recent economic sanctions and political embargo imposed on Russia. However, the current and potential gains and losses indicate that the final winner has not yet been determined, and short-term benefits may contain risks that turn into heavy losses that are difficult to reverse. Thus, as part of an attempt to undertake a final accounting of this seemingly difficult calculus for all parties, it is important to identify the actual and potential costs and benefits of Russia’s war on Ukraine for Western nations in some detail. This may prompt a reconsideration of the absolute judgments bandied about in foreign takes on the repercussions and outcomes of the war and Russia’s post-war future.

Dr. Youssef Dawood‏‏

Dr. Youssef Dawood‏‏

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